Today’ Rumor: Pick 3

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Here is the players on the 23 pro bowl and the pick they were drafted at, minus special teamers and fullbacks

Buddha Baker	36​
Chris Lindstrom	14​
Mark Andrews	86​
Marlon Humphrey	16​
Roquan Smith	8​
Dion Dawkins	63​
Stephon Diggs	146​
Dawson Knox	96​
Matt Millano	163​
Mitch Morse	49​
Jorday Poyer	218​
Roger Saffold	33​
Brian Burns	16​
Ja'marr Chase	5​
Trey Hendrickson	103​
Joel Bitonio	35​
Nick Chubb	35​
Myles Garrett	1​
Wyatt Teller	166​
Tyler Biadsz	146​
Trevon Diggs	56​
CeeDee Lamb	17​
Demarcus Lawrence	34​
Zach Martin	16​
Micah Parsons	12​
Pat Surtain	9​
Jared Goff	1​
Frank Ragnow	20​
Penei Sewell	7​
Amon Ra St Brown	112​
Jaire Alexander	18​
Elgton Jenkins	44​
Laremy Tunsil	13​
Jamal Agnew	165​
Trevor Lawrence	1​
Davante Adams	53​
Derek Carr	36​
Max Crosby	106​
Josh Jacobs	24​
Derwin James	17​
Jalen Ramsey	5​
Terron Armstead	75​
Bradley Chubb	5​
Tyreek Hill	165​
Xavien howard	38​
Dalvin Cook	41​
Kirk Cousins	102​
TJ Hockenson	8​
Daniel Hunter	88​
Justin Jefferson	22​
Za'Darious Smith	122​
Mathew Judon	146​
Demario Davis	77​
Cameron Jordan	24​
Saquan Barkley	2​
Dexter Lawrence	17​
Sauce Gardner	4​
Justin Hardee	107​
CJ Moseley	17​
Quinnen Williams	3​
Minkah Fitzpatrick	11​
Cameron Hayward	31​
Talanoa Hufanga	180​
George Kittle	146​
Christian McCaffery	8​
Fred Warner	70​
Trent Williams	4​
Qundre Diggs	200​
Tariq Woolen	153​
Geno Smith	39​
Tristan Wirfs	13​
Derrick Henry	45​
Ben Jones	99​
Jeffery Simmons	19​
Jonathan Allen	17​
Terry McLaurin	76​
Daron Payne	13​

Total players - 77
Average Pick - 57
Top 3 picks - Goff, Lawrence, Saquan, Garrett, Quinnen Williams
Number of Pro Bowlers in top 5 - 9.
Number of Non QB top 5 pro bowlers - 7
Number of Top 10 picks - 15
Number of 10-20 picks - 15
Number of 1st rounders - 34
Number of 2nd rounders - 15
Number of 3rd rounders - 7
Number of 4th rounders - 6
Number of 5th rounders - 10
Number of 6th and 7th - 5

I wanted to look at this as education for myself as much as anyone - but it clearly shows a top 10 pick is far from required to get an impact player. It actually suggests the Picks 10 - 20 are just about equivalent to top 10 picks.
It certainly looks like trading down for additional 1st and 2nd round picks is worth it. However it gets questionable after that.

Data set is far too small to make any conclusion. But if I was going to make one it’s that top 15 picks are still the mos important because it has the Hines volume of success and you get to choose from a greater pool of talent.

 

[Cardinal88]

Guess it basically means to do a great job of scouting players. That’s what’s scouts and management get paid to do.

 

[kerouac9]

I wanted to look at this as education for myself as much as anyone - but it clearly shows a top 10 pick is far from required to get an impact player. It actually suggests the Picks 10 - 20 are just about equivalent to top 10 picks.
It certainly looks like trading down for additional 1st and 2nd round picks is worth it. However it gets questionable after that.

This only counts if your measurement of quality players is 2022 pro bowlers. Also, obviously there are fewer guards, safeties, tight ends, and off-ball linebackers drafted highly than edge rushers and quarterbacks.

QB, edge, CB, LT are positions where you’re much less likely to find top talent outside of the early rounds.

Guys taken in the middle of the first round are also more likely to land on team as who will make the leap shortly from mediocrity to playoff contention — and become more visible to pro bowl voters.

 

[Goldfield]

I’d like to see that chart with positions added

 

[AZCB34]

Um, what? That doesn't make any kind of logical sense. So if we're staring at a Joe Thomas or a Lawrence Taylor or a Von Miller at #3, it makes no sense to take them because they aren't a QB so you must trade out? Taking a HoF non-QB at #3 would not be getting full value? I'll say I'm glad you're not in charge of anything and roll from there

There is almost zero chance Anderson is a HoF talent…no matter how badly you want that. The odds simply state otherwise. Doesn’t mean You don’t take him but let’s not get carried away

 

[Stout]

There is almost zero chance Anderson is a HoF talent…no matter how badly you want that. The odds simply state otherwise. Doesn’t mean You don’t take him but let’s not get carried away

Nor was I claiming he is. The statement I was responding to was an absolute saying you don't take non-QBs at #3 and I listed some HoF talent to disprove that.

 

[Sparky16]

Let's end this insanity. Just give the Colts our 3 for their 4 & 35 AND be done with it. Combine the now 4, 34, 35, with another high 2nd for Hopkins and we will have our cake (Anderson) and eat it too by improving 2 or 3 other important starting positions. That would be a good start and we would be half way there if we pick right.

If Anderson is gone, then take a QB.... period. Shop the shorty. I would take Stroud or Richardson if they fall to 3 and Anderson is off the board. Someone will pony up for Murray

 

[Zalixar]

If Anderson is gone, then take a QB.... period. Shop the shorty. I would take Stroud or Richardson if they fall to 3 and Anderson is off the board. Someone will pony up for Murray

What? Get a QB next year if anything, class is much better at the top. No reason to get one this year. Richardson will be there at 3, and we are not the team to take a risk on him.

We can't trade Murray this year, and no one will trade anything than a bag of peanuts for him right now.