Today’ Rumor: Pick 3

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Here is the players on the 23 pro bowl and the pick they were drafted at, minus special teamers and fullbacks
Buddha Baker
36​
Chris Lindstrom
14​
Mark Andrews
86​
Marlon Humphrey
16​
Roquan Smith
8​
Dion Dawkins
63​
Stephon Diggs
146​
Dawson Knox
96​
Matt Millano
163​
Mitch Morse
49​
Jorday Poyer
218​
Roger Saffold
33​
Brian Burns
16​
Ja'marr Chase
5​
Trey Hendrickson
103​
Joel Bitonio
35​
Nick Chubb
35​
Myles Garrett
1​
Wyatt Teller
166​
Tyler Biadsz
146​
Trevon Diggs
56​
CeeDee Lamb
17​
Demarcus Lawrence
34​
Zach Martin
16​
Micah Parsons
12​
Pat Surtain
9​
Jared Goff
1​
Frank Ragnow
20​
Penei Sewell
7​
Amon Ra St Brown
112​
Jaire Alexander
18​
Elgton Jenkins
44​
Laremy Tunsil
13​
Jamal Agnew
165​
Trevor Lawrence
1​
Davante Adams
53​
Derek Carr
36​
Max Crosby
106​
Josh Jacobs
24​
Derwin James
17​
Jalen Ramsey
5​
Terron Armstead
75​
Bradley Chubb
5​
Tyreek Hill
165​
Xavien howard
38​
Dalvin Cook
41​
Kirk Cousins
102​
TJ Hockenson
8​
Daniel Hunter
88​
Justin Jefferson
22​
Za'Darious Smith
122​
Mathew Judon
146​
Demario Davis
77​
Cameron Jordan
24​
Saquan Barkley
2​
Dexter Lawrence
17​
Sauce Gardner
4​
Justin Hardee
107​
CJ Moseley
17​
Quinnen Williams
3​
Minkah Fitzpatrick
11​
Cameron Hayward
31​
Talanoa Hufanga
180​
George Kittle
146​
Christian McCaffery
8​
Fred Warner
70​
Trent Williams
4​
Qundre Diggs
200​
Tariq Woolen
153​
Geno Smith
39​
Tristan Wirfs
13​
Derrick Henry
45​
Ben Jones
99​
Jeffery Simmons
19​
Jonathan Allen
17​
Terry McLaurin
76​
Daron Payne
13​
Total players - 77
Average Pick - 57
Top 3 picks - Goff, Lawrence, Saquan, Garrett, Quinnen Williams
Number of Pro Bowlers in top 5 - 9.
Number of Non QB top 5 pro bowlers - 7
Number of Top 10 picks - 15
Number of 10-20 picks - 15
Number of 1st rounders - 34
Number of 2nd rounders - 15
Number of 3rd rounders - 7
Number of 4th rounders - 6
Number of 5th rounders - 10
Number of 6th and 7th - 5

I wanted to look at this as education for myself as much as anyone - but it clearly shows a top 10 pick is far from required to get an impact player. It actually suggests the Picks 10 - 20 are just about equivalent to top 10 picks.
It certainly looks like trading down for additional 1st and 2nd round picks is worth it. However it gets questionable after that.
Data set is far too small to make any conclusion. But if I was going to make one it’s that top 15 picks are still the mos important because it has the Hines volume of success and you get to choose from a greater pool of talent.
 

kerouac9

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I wanted to look at this as education for myself as much as anyone - but it clearly shows a top 10 pick is far from required to get an impact player. It actually suggests the Picks 10 - 20 are just about equivalent to top 10 picks.
It certainly looks like trading down for additional 1st and 2nd round picks is worth it. However it gets questionable after that.
This only counts if your measurement of quality players is 2022 pro bowlers. Also, obviously there are fewer guards, safeties, tight ends, and off-ball linebackers drafted highly than edge rushers and quarterbacks.

QB, edge, CB, LT are positions where you’re much less likely to find top talent outside of the early rounds.

Guys taken in the middle of the first round are also more likely to land on team as who will make the leap shortly from mediocrity to playoff contention — and become more visible to pro bowl voters.
 

AZCB34

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Um, what? That doesn't make any kind of logical sense. So if we're staring at a Joe Thomas or a Lawrence Taylor or a Von Miller at #3, it makes no sense to take them because they aren't a QB so you must trade out? Taking a HoF non-QB at #3 would not be getting full value? I'll say I'm glad you're not in charge of anything and roll from there :)
There is almost zero chance Anderson is a HoF talent…no matter how badly you want that. The odds simply state otherwise. Doesn’t mean You don’t take him but let’s not get carried away
 

Stout

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There is almost zero chance Anderson is a HoF talent…no matter how badly you want that. The odds simply state otherwise. Doesn’t mean You don’t take him but let’s not get carried away
Nor was I claiming he is. The statement I was responding to was an absolute saying you don't take non-QBs at #3 and I listed some HoF talent to disprove that.
 

Sparky16

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Let's end this insanity. Just give the Colts our 3 for their 4 & 35 AND be done with it. Combine the now 4, 34, 35, with another high 2nd for Hopkins and we will have our cake (Anderson) and eat it too by improving 2 or 3 other important starting positions. That would be a good start and we would be half way there if we pick right.
If Anderson is gone, then take a QB.... period. Shop the midget. I would take Stroud or Richardson if they fall to 3 and Anderson is off the board. Someone will pony up for Murray
 

Zalixar

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If Anderson is gone, then take a QB.... period. Shop the midget. I would take Stroud or Richardson if they fall to 3 and Anderson is off the board. Someone will pony up for Murray

What? Get a QB next year if anything, class is much better at the top. No reason to get one this year. Richardson will be there at 3, and we are not the team to take a risk on him.

We can't trade Murray this year, and no one will trade anything than a bag of peanuts for him right now.
 
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