Super Bowl LVIII (58)

Vacard

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What?!? Teams do it all the time in EVERY draft. They gamble. And for the Chiefs it paid off.

In the same draft the Bears moved up ONE spot to draft that Bust Trubiski for a haul.
@Solar7 whats there to disagree about? Houston and KC traded up for a haul including their first round picks for Mahomes and Watson respectively. SF did the same thing for Lance. So whats the problem??
 

Solar7

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@Solar7 whats there to disagree about? Houston and KC traded up for a haul including their first round picks for Mahomes and Watson respectively. SF did the same thing for Lance. So whats the problem??
You can do it, obviously, but the results are more likely than not to be absolute garbage.

My point over the years is that we may have offered to trade up but neither team was taking a third rounder for us to move up a couple of slots when they had firsts on the table. So either we could have hugely overpaid with a first in a "bad" draft class or did what we did and unfortunately miss out on a player that would turn out to be great.

But you can't 50/50 hindsight everything.
 

Vacard

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You can do it, obviously, but the results are more likely than not to be absolute garbage.

My point over the years is that we may have offered to trade up but neither team was taking a third rounder for us to move up a couple of slots when they had firsts on the table. So either we could have hugely overpaid with a first in a "bad" draft class or did what we did and unfortunately miss out on a player that would turn out to be great.

But you can't 50/50 hindsight everything.
Meh Bears gave up 2 third round picks and a forth to move up TWO spots to select TruBustsky. Obviously it didnt pay out but they took the risk. If Keim thought he was the best qb in the draft he should've offered a haul for Mahomes and yall wouldn't be crying about Kyler not being a leader of men among other things when his father decided to move in with him.
 

Solar7

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Meh Bears gave up 2 third round picks and a forth to move up TWO spots to select TruBustsky. Obviously it didnt pay out but they took the risk. If Keim thought he was the best qb in the draft he should've offered a haul for Mahomes and yall wouldn't be crying about Kyler not being a leader of men among other things when his father decided to move in with him.
You're making my point for me. Spending a lot to move up just one to three picks absolutely sucks and puts your job in jeopardy. And most of the time the QB fails.

The price was too high to move up for an unknown. If Keim had moved up for someone else, he loses his job. You can't move up every year for your guy.

It takes nuance on when to pull the trigger, and for how much.
 

Vacard

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You're making my point for me. Spending a lot to move up just one to three picks absolutely sucks and puts your job in jeopardy. And most of the time the QB fails.

The price was too high to move up for an unknown. If Keim had moved up for someone else, he loses his job. You can't move up every year for your guy.

It takes nuance on when to pull the trigger, and for how much.
Thats bs, no risk no biscuit.

Jordan Love, Mahomes, Watson (in Houston), Josh Allen, Joe Flacco, RG3 were all traded up for and were good franchise qb’s before injuries or massage parlors got to them. Keim traded up for the wrong qb in Rosen instead of Mahomes
 

Solar7

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Thats bs, no risk no biscuit.

Jordan Love, Mahomes, Watson (in Houston), Josh Allen, Joe Flacco, RG3 were all traded up for and were good franchise qb’s before injuries or massage parlors got to them. Keim traded up for the wrong qb in Rosen instead of Mahomes
At least two guys on that list you can't call good (Watson, RG3) because of literally what you just said. Massage parlors and injuries. They are busts. Too much of a risk. Also, the value given up for a Jordan Love doesn't match at all what we would have had to give up for Mahomes.

Please also share a list of QBs that were traded up for in modern history that have been complete busts, because it's much bigger than your list.
 

Vacard

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At least two guys on that list you can't call good (Watson, RG3) because of literally what you just said. Massage parlors and injuries. They are busts. Too much of a risk. Also, the value given up for a Jordan Love doesn't match at all what we would have had to give up for Mahomes.

Please also share a list of QBs that were traded up for in modern history that have been complete busts, because it's much bigger than your list.
Watson wasnt a bust in Houston, he led the in passing yards before that massage parlor bs but im not going into go into the semantics of that.

And it doesn't matter, staying put got us Rosen the following year while Keim couldve traded up for Mahomes. No risk, no biscuit and thats my bottom line.
 

Solar7

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Watson wasnt a bust in Houston, he led the in passing yards before that massage parlor bs but im not going into go into the semantics of that.

And it doesn't matter, staying put got us Rosen the following year while Keim couldve traded up for Mahomes. No risk, no biscuit and thats my bottom line.
The analytics don't agree with your feelings. And if a player doesn't win you games or a championship, or make it to a second contract, nothing they do elsewhere matters. Watson's legacy is going to be that he busted hard and got way overpaid unless something changes... and will be a huge black eye on the Houston franchise.
 

Vacard

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The analytics don't agree with your feelings. And if a player doesn't win you games or a championship, or make it to a second contract, nothing they do elsewhere matters. Watson's legacy is going to be that he busted hard and got way overpaid unless something changes... and will be a huge black eye on the Houston franchise.
Leading the league in passing yards ans getting better every year prior WAS A FACT. Theres no getting around that.
 

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What? I'm not trying to act like I'm some football visionary, it's just my opinion. It's Andy Reid and Mahomes. They are the best HC and QB duo in the league on a team that has consistently had one of the best offenses in the league for the last 5 years, appeared in 4 of the last 5 superbowls and won 3 of them.

They are the masters of clutch football and there isn't a team in the league I'd like to go up against to stop a game winning drive for the Superbowl. When the Niners took 3 and said "Go drive to win it" I was confident it was going to happen because of those reasons. I thought the Niners were naive or over confident to think they were going to restrict them to 3 or less.

I didn't "know", it's just a common phrase people use, but I was 80% confident and I was saying as much to the TV but it didn't listen.

Then, I take it, you would have been equally certain that had KC taken the ball first, Mahomes would have marched downfield and scored a TD. And then SF would have had to depend on a Super Bowl rookie to match him. I've read that analytics say that going first or second was statistically irrelevant. Bottom line: KCs defence did a better job.
 

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Watson wasnt a bust in Houston, he led the in passing yards before that massage parlor bs but im not going into go into the semantics of that.

And it doesn't matter, staying put got us Rosen the following year while Keim couldve traded up for Mahomes. No risk, no biscuit and thats my bottom line.
Staying put would have gotten us Lamar Jackson.... but keim traded up to take Rosen
 

kerouac9

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The analytics don't agree with your feelings. And if a player doesn't win you games or a championship, or make it to a second contract, nothing they do elsewhere matters. Watson's legacy is going to be that he busted hard and got way overpaid unless something changes... and will be a huge black eye on the Houston franchise.
Watson made it to a second contract.
 

GatorAZ

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Still a bust for them. How we got there doesn't matter. The Cards would have been a mess with Watson and now wouldn't have him.

Not only was Watson a great QB in Houston they also got three first rd picks for him including the picks of Will Anderson and Tank Dell. Drafting Watson is one of the best things that ever happened to that franchise probably right after drafting JJ Watt.
 

kerouac9

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Still a bust for them. How we got there doesn't matter. The Cards would have been a mess with Watson and now wouldn't have him.
Oh. So even though he fulfilled 2/3 of your qualifications, he’s still a bust. They also traded him for a haul that moved them from complete embarrassment to winning a playoff game.
 

kerouac9

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@GatorAZ and @kerouac9 are you both saying we should have given up a 1st to move up and take Watson then?
I was fine with raw-dogging it with Palmer at the time. We absolutely should have given up a first for Mahomes tho. Obviously.

I mean, we took Reddick. The next year we traded up for Rosen. Would you trade Reddick and Rosen for Mahomes? Of course.
 

Solar7

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We should’ve traded up for Mahomes using your hindsight model.
My point is you can't use hindsight. The math doesn't support it. More often than not, trading up for a QB fails.

I was fine with raw-dogging it with Palmer at the time. We absolutely should have given up a first for Mahomes tho. Obviously.

I mean, we took Reddick. The next year we traded up for Rosen. Would you trade Reddick and Rosen for Mahomes? Of course.
Only with 50/50 hindsight. You can't say, with the information available at the time, that it would have been the right move.

Yes, 31/32 teams should have drafted Mahomes, but that's not the point. It's whether or not it made sense to do so at the time. We also should have drafted Joe Montana. But we didn't.
 

oaken1

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My point is you can't use hindsight. The math doesn't support it. More often than not, trading up for a QB fails.


Only with 50/50 hindsight. You can't say, with the information available at the time, that it would have been the right move.

Yes, 31/32 teams should have drafted Mahomes, but that's not the point. It's whether or not it made sense to do so at the time. We also should have drafted Joe Montana. But we didn't.
20/20 hindsight.

Hindsight is 20/20. That's the saying.
 

schutd

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I was fine with raw-dogging it with Palmer at the time. We absolutely should have given up a first for Mahomes tho. Obviously.

I mean, we took Reddick. The next year we traded up for Rosen. Would you trade Reddick and Rosen for Mahomes? Of course.
"Raw dogging it with Palmer" is my new favorite line on this board. Sounds like the name of a stupid Pennywise song or something.
 

kerouac9

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My point is you can't use hindsight. The math doesn't support it. More often than not, trading up for a QB fails.


Only with 50/50 hindsight. You can't say, with the information available at the time, that it would have been the right move.

Yes, 31/32 teams should have drafted Mahomes, but that's not the point. It's whether or not it made sense to do so at the time. We also should have drafted Joe Montana. But we didn't.
Every draft pick is a gamble. Teams overvalue first round picks. That’s the lesson of the LA Rams. If you have a QB you love and you don’t have a long-term answer at the position, move up and get him.

F dem picks
 

Chopper0080

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The analytics don't agree with your feelings. And if a player doesn't win you games or a championship, or make it to a second contract, nothing they do elsewhere matters. Watson's legacy is going to be that he busted hard and got way overpaid unless something changes... and will be a huge black eye on the Houston franchise.
What analytics?

And, oddly enough, by your win games and earn a second contract, Watson actually is a hit. He won games in Houston, earned a second contract and started in 3 playoff games as well. Per your own statement, nothing matters after that.

And no one in Houston is thinking about Watson right now, Stroud fever has taken over.
 
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