Since evaluating prospects is my specialty, I figured I could avoid major errors unless they’re ones of judgment where we disagree.
It’s still early and much could change but here’s some things I’ve noticed about prospects. Also I’ve included where I think they’ll go if nothing changes. Please realize many of the deficiencies could be corrected. This order is based more on the amount of chatter I’m hearing, not necessarily my preference.
Fernando Mendoza is the leader to be the top pick. He seems to have that “it” factor of charisma. This often happens with guys from historically weak schools. He can run, but doesn’t exhibit happy feet. He can throw the entire tree with decent accuracy. Especially early in the year he threw poorly on the run. He’ll hang tough and take a hit to complete a pass. It helps he’s big and strong. Top 5 pick.
Dante Moore has the best ball placement in this group. He understands the importance of routes and YAC. He throws receivers open and can make big throws under pressure. He doesn’t have as much starting experience as some would like. It seems forgotten he started games at UCLA before becoming a backup at Oregon. He’s not much of a runner, but will run when necessary. His frame suggests he may be prone to injury. He oddly gets overanxious on short throws, but that should correctable. Theoretically he could return to school. Big NIL money to do so. Top 5 picks
Ty Simpson does actually lack starting experience, but doesn’t show it. His poise has impressed everyone. He manages to avoid interceptions with self discipline. He has mental toughness. Decisive with an extremely quick release. Exceptional ball placement. Needs to bulk up and learn how to use a pocket. Deep throws can be erratic. Top 7 pick
John Mateer is the overachiever everyone admires. He plays hurt when he’s not at his best. He takes too many hits due to bravado. On the other hand this action has strengthened his leadership position. He’s capable of making all the throws but takes too many risks. He’s bad at defensive reads and can get confused by late movement that changes the defensive alignment. His height is an issue with some scouts. Late 1 Early 2
Round 2
LaNorris Sellers possibly has the strongest raw tools in this pool. He also totally lacks polish. He’d benefit immensely by going through the portal and getting to the right program. I’m told he’s determined to come out. However, the right NIL deal could change that. Assuming he stays in the draft he might need more than a year of development to start. He can run, throw and lead, he just makes too many mistakes. He’s badly in need of leaning to throw passes with touch. Late 1, early 2.
Brendan Sorsby is not on most lists. I think he’ll surprise people. He’s very polished. He reads defenses as good as anyone in this class. He possess advanced skills like moving safeties with his eyes. He’s the best at using progressions. He has a strong arm, easily making deep throws. He throws few interceptions yet he’s not afraid to take chances. He’s capable of running for big plays. Hasn’t faced the best competition. Round 2
Garrett Nussmeier has been dropped in ranking by this season’s performance. He’s a confusing prospect. These assessments ignore the fact he hasn’t been healthy for most of the year. In preseason he suffered a severe abdominal strain. He has extreme pain at times which he played through. Just when he started to improve the played Texas A&M and he re-injured his abdomen and hasn’t been healthy since. He’s grown frustrated and now is trying to do too much. That led to his recent removal from a game. The coaching mess has further compounded the problem. Keep in mind most scouts had him first round if he came out last season. He can throw every pass with ease. He’s knows how to move in the pocket to create throwing lanes. Solid on play action and RPOs. He’s not proficient at reading defenses. He tries to use progressions but defenses can confuse him. If I took him I’d set him a year in part to build up his body and get him completely healthy. Day 2
Day 3 if the draft was tomorrow. These are guys who I will give you more depending how they finish. A couple likely go in round 3.
Drew Allar might slip to day 3. I don’t like him. I find him stiff and not creative. He doesn’t consistently handle pressure.
Cade Klubnik once thought to be top echelon but struggles with massive inconsistency.
Carson Beck does not look good to me under pressure.
Taylen Green is a big time running threat who can throw the ball decently.
Josh Hoover started the year great, but has struggled with decision making since.
Last notes
Julian Sayin is not draft eligible as I read his history. Why come out now when he could go number 1 next year? He’ll get plenty of NIL money.
Sam Leavitt likely returns to school after his injury. If not he’s very late day 3.
This is a scout’s draft. There are numerous guys with a chance to develop. Picking the right ones pays the big money.
It’s still early and much could change but here’s some things I’ve noticed about prospects. Also I’ve included where I think they’ll go if nothing changes. Please realize many of the deficiencies could be corrected. This order is based more on the amount of chatter I’m hearing, not necessarily my preference.
Fernando Mendoza is the leader to be the top pick. He seems to have that “it” factor of charisma. This often happens with guys from historically weak schools. He can run, but doesn’t exhibit happy feet. He can throw the entire tree with decent accuracy. Especially early in the year he threw poorly on the run. He’ll hang tough and take a hit to complete a pass. It helps he’s big and strong. Top 5 pick.
Dante Moore has the best ball placement in this group. He understands the importance of routes and YAC. He throws receivers open and can make big throws under pressure. He doesn’t have as much starting experience as some would like. It seems forgotten he started games at UCLA before becoming a backup at Oregon. He’s not much of a runner, but will run when necessary. His frame suggests he may be prone to injury. He oddly gets overanxious on short throws, but that should correctable. Theoretically he could return to school. Big NIL money to do so. Top 5 picks
Ty Simpson does actually lack starting experience, but doesn’t show it. His poise has impressed everyone. He manages to avoid interceptions with self discipline. He has mental toughness. Decisive with an extremely quick release. Exceptional ball placement. Needs to bulk up and learn how to use a pocket. Deep throws can be erratic. Top 7 pick
John Mateer is the overachiever everyone admires. He plays hurt when he’s not at his best. He takes too many hits due to bravado. On the other hand this action has strengthened his leadership position. He’s capable of making all the throws but takes too many risks. He’s bad at defensive reads and can get confused by late movement that changes the defensive alignment. His height is an issue with some scouts. Late 1 Early 2
Round 2
LaNorris Sellers possibly has the strongest raw tools in this pool. He also totally lacks polish. He’d benefit immensely by going through the portal and getting to the right program. I’m told he’s determined to come out. However, the right NIL deal could change that. Assuming he stays in the draft he might need more than a year of development to start. He can run, throw and lead, he just makes too many mistakes. He’s badly in need of leaning to throw passes with touch. Late 1, early 2.
Brendan Sorsby is not on most lists. I think he’ll surprise people. He’s very polished. He reads defenses as good as anyone in this class. He possess advanced skills like moving safeties with his eyes. He’s the best at using progressions. He has a strong arm, easily making deep throws. He throws few interceptions yet he’s not afraid to take chances. He’s capable of running for big plays. Hasn’t faced the best competition. Round 2
Garrett Nussmeier has been dropped in ranking by this season’s performance. He’s a confusing prospect. These assessments ignore the fact he hasn’t been healthy for most of the year. In preseason he suffered a severe abdominal strain. He has extreme pain at times which he played through. Just when he started to improve the played Texas A&M and he re-injured his abdomen and hasn’t been healthy since. He’s grown frustrated and now is trying to do too much. That led to his recent removal from a game. The coaching mess has further compounded the problem. Keep in mind most scouts had him first round if he came out last season. He can throw every pass with ease. He’s knows how to move in the pocket to create throwing lanes. Solid on play action and RPOs. He’s not proficient at reading defenses. He tries to use progressions but defenses can confuse him. If I took him I’d set him a year in part to build up his body and get him completely healthy. Day 2
Day 3 if the draft was tomorrow. These are guys who I will give you more depending how they finish. A couple likely go in round 3.
Drew Allar might slip to day 3. I don’t like him. I find him stiff and not creative. He doesn’t consistently handle pressure.
Cade Klubnik once thought to be top echelon but struggles with massive inconsistency.
Carson Beck does not look good to me under pressure.
Taylen Green is a big time running threat who can throw the ball decently.
Josh Hoover started the year great, but has struggled with decision making since.
Last notes
Julian Sayin is not draft eligible as I read his history. Why come out now when he could go number 1 next year? He’ll get plenty of NIL money.
Sam Leavitt likely returns to school after his injury. If not he’s very late day 3.
This is a scout’s draft. There are numerous guys with a chance to develop. Picking the right ones pays the big money.
