PFF: Worst RB in the NFL is Chris Johnson

[BurqueCardFan]

Having read numerous research articles and contributed to some, I can tell you with 100% confidence that most statistics can be manipulated to validate any hypothesis. Thus the term "inferential statistics." Despite K9's desperate attempts to justify FO's statistical validity, they are just as subjective as this post that I'm writing at the moment.

100% agree.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

How about this axiom:
"stats are for losers, final score is for winners and that's what it's really all about."

I'm okay with traditional stats but these new made up stats, like QBR, are too arbitrary for me. Yards, TD's, and ypc tell me as much as I need to know about RB's.

 

[Redneck Voodoo]

I'll read the whole thing but sometimes you don't break tackles because you don't have to, you jump cut in the hole and completely avoid the defender.

If he's the worst RB in the NFL I hope we find more guys just as bad as him.

this

 

[TJ]

Back on topic--since Collinsworth is part owner of PFF, and will be doing color for our next game, prepare for this to be a major talking point during the broadcast.

 

[English on tour]

PFF isn't an advanced metrics site. They're an opinion page bankrolled by Chris Collinsworth and ESPN masked as a metrics site.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

FO has him ranked 18th in their value-per-play metric, and he's hurt by opponent adjustments. I'd guess that his 2 fumbles against just 3 TDs hurts his value.

The advanced metric that I like the most for RBs — success rate — loves Chris Johnson in 2015. 6th in the NFL with successful plays on 53% of his runs

PFF are couple of English guys a know who started about 10 years ago.

Before you had game pass and decent coverage over here we used to buy the games on DVD and have them shipped over by the Thursday following the game. I bought the cards games and copied them and then sent them on to these guys. A few others did the same for other teams.

As a group if you liked a game or wanted watch it on disc someone would send you it. All very long winded to start with but that's where they started and spent so much time watching and grading every player on every down.

Long process and it all came from small beginnings and really one mans np vision to give the game something it didn't have already. Some of the stats are always going to be contrevasial but they are what they are and a useful tool nontheless.

I don't agree with their CJ line either by the way.

 

[Russ Smith]

While I'm sure CJ is not the worst back - I do agree he is nothing special despite his yardage numbers. He is not making many people miss, but he does do a fairly good job of finding the right hole, which is his main reason for his success.

I really believe we would be doing much better on YPC if David Johnson was getting the majority of the carries. The thing to worry about with him though is ball security.

Arians seems to be content to go with the veteran because he knows exactly what he will get, and he thinks he is good enough.

I really wish he would give DJ one game to show what he could do - if he did I am convinced the job would be his because he would show he is clearly the better back.

Why? CJ is already averaging more yards per carry than DJ is. Does DJ get some short yardage carries absolutely, but he also gets carries later in the game when the defense is exhausted from pass rushing, he doesn't get those carries early in the game when the defense is fresh, CJ does.

The only stat he's doing better than CJ on is YPC in the 4th quarter, and he has 21 less carries in the 4th quarter and his are when HE is fresh.

CJ is not the same guy who gained 2000 yards, he doesn't have that top end speed anymore, but he's doing a very good job of getting positive yards on plays. We're not in 3rd and long this year very often and he's a big reason why. He averages 4.8 YPC on first down and 5 on second down which is exactly what you want from you #1 RB. it keeps you in manageable 3rd down spots.

 

[Shane]

Why? CJ is already averaging more yards per carry than DJ is. Does DJ get some short yardage carries absolutely, but he also gets carries later in the game when the defense is exhausted from pass rushing, he doesn't get those carries early in the game when the defense is fresh, CJ does.

The only stat he's doing better than CJ on is YPC in the 4th quarter, and he has 21 less carries in the 4th quarter and his are when HE is fresh.

CJ is not the same guy who gained 2000 yards, he doesn't have that top end speed anymore, but he's doing a very good job of getting positive yards on plays. We're not in 3rd and long this year very often and he's a big reason why. He averages 4.8 YPC on first down and 5 on second down which is exactly what you want from you #1 RB. it keeps you in manageable 3rd down spots.

Come on Russ really??? The kid has 25 carries in total... You can't even compare the two in any reasonable fashion... Only time will tell... But I also believe that we could be even more successful letting the young kid run the ball... But im hardly disappointed in CJ either as it stands now.

 

[Russ Smith]

Come on Russ really??? The kid has 25 carries in total... You can't even compare the two in any reasonable fashion... Only time will tell... But I also believe that we could be even more successful letting the young kid run the ball... But im hardly disappointed in CJ either as it stands now.

That's my point, he hasn't actually done anything running the ball to suggest he should get more carriers than Chris Johnson.

I think he's been very good in the role he's in, I also think there's a reason he is not getting more carries and it is that Arians trusts CJ more both to not fumble, and to keep getting positive yards.

I will say this, I'd like to continue to see him in short yardage situations he's doing pretty well there, not dancing, putting his head down and going forward.

He's a talented kid but a long KO return and a few long catches and runs don't make him qualified to take over the #1 RB job which is what a couple of people have speculated should happen.

in the last 4 games he's really only had an impact in 1 of them Cleveland. He got off to a great start, I think NFL teams have adjusted a bit and Arians is trying to figure out new ways to use him. Like the him and Ellington in together lineup we've seen a few times now.

 

[Proximo]

That's my point, he hasn't actually done anything running the ball to suggest he should get more carriers than Chris Johnson.

I think he's been very good in the role he's in, I also think there's a reason he is not getting more carries and it is that Arians trusts CJ more both to not fumble, and to keep getting positive yards.

I will say this, I'd like to continue to see him in short yardage situations he's doing pretty well there, not dancing, putting his head down and going forward.

He's a talented kid but a long KO return and a few long catches and runs don't make him qualified to take over the #1 RB job which is what a couple of people have speculated should happen.

in the last 4 games he's really only had an impact in 1 of them Cleveland. He got off to a great start, I think NFL teams have adjusted a bit and Arians is trying to figure out new ways to use him. Like the him and Ellington in together lineup we've seen a few times now.

So against Cleveland he got 3 touches 50 yds
Baltimore he got 5 touches for 25 yards
Pittsburgh 4 touches for 17 yards
Detroit 3 touches 6 yards - 2 TD
St Louis 7 touches 80 yds
SanFran 10 touches 41 yds
Chicago 6 touches 42 yds TD
New Orleans 1 touch 55 yds, TD

So in 39 touches - 316 Yds 4td

8.1 Yds per touch, that is excellent production.

His production has slowed because he is getting less touches - Arians has gone almost exclusively to Chris Johnson in the last 4 games.

Now granted he is being used to his strengths more than he would be as the workhorse back, but at just 39 touches he is being way underutilized

You could be right maybe he wouldn't be better than CJ, but he should get the opportunity to find out.

Also he is young and under contract for a few more years - chris Johnson is old and a free agent.

In the few opportunities he has gotten you can see he does break tackles, and he does have breakaway speed. In other words he has much higher upside.

 

[GatorAZ]

My vote goes to Eddie Lacy. Dude looks like he ate Chris Johnson.

 

[ARZCardinals]

I'll take CJ every Sunday

 

[NJCardFan]

But despite all the yards, Johnson just hasn’t done enough on his own to show he can succeed without the perfect offense around him.

This is as stupid a statement as there are. Let's look at Marshawn Lynch. Last season he averaged 4.7YPC. This year, behind a sub par offensive line, he has 3.6YPC. Meaning NO running back can function on a bad offense.

 

[Jetstream Green]

This is as stupid a statement as there are. Let's look at Marshawn Lynch. Last season he averaged 4.7YPC. This year, behind a sub par offensive line, he has 3.6YPC. Meaning NO running back can function on a bad offense.

Walter Payton did more than just function behind a subpar offense for a few years

 

[RON_IN_OC]

So is Football Outsiders. They use opinions and quantify then with arbitrary figures to spit out rankings. Both FO and PFF advertise themselves as advanced metric sources, but in reality, they're no different than someone who blogs or provides subjective analysis. It's the same animal as ESPN's QBR and others. Take it with a grain of salt.

This. 68% of statistics you read online are made up.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[Shaggy]

So against Cleveland he got 3 touches 50 yds
Baltimore he got 5 touches for 25 yards
Pittsburgh 4 touches for 17 yards
Detroit 3 touches 6 yards - 2 TD
St Louis 7 touches 80 yds
SanFran 10 touches 41 yds
Chicago 6 touches 42 yds TD
New Orleans 1 touch 55 yds, TD

So in 39 touches - 316 Yds 4td

8.1 Yds per touch, that is excellent production.

His production has slowed because he is getting less touches - Arians has gone almost exclusively to Chris Johnson in the last 4 games.

Now granted he is being used to his strengths more than he would be as the workhorse back, but at just 39 touches he is being way underutilized

You could be right maybe he wouldn't be better than CJ, but he should get the opportunity to find out.

Also he is young and under contract for a few more years - chris Johnson is old and a free agent.

In the few opportunities he has gotten you can see he does break tackles, and he does have breakaway speed. In other words he has much higher upside.

I think Arians knows what he has in DJ, but wants to not use him yet as CJ is doing just fine. I figured he wants to keep him fresh for next year as they may not sign CJ to an extension and they are fine with that knowing they have DJ and AE to fall back on.

 

[cardpa]

Walter Payton did more than just function behind a subpar offense for a few years

Walter Peyton in my humble opinion was the best running back ever in the NFL. If you want to put Barry Sanders in a tie with Peyton that is fine by me but I don't think anyone was better than Sweetness.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think Arians knows what he has in DJ, but wants to not use him yet as CJ is doing just fine. I figured he wants to keep him fresh for next year as they may not sign CJ to an extension and they are fine with that knowing they have DJ and AE to fall back on.

I think ARians is VERY high on DJ but I also think Arians has a history of not trusting rookies, especially rookies who appear to have an issue fumbling.

 

[Russ Smith]

So against Cleveland he got 3 touches 50 yds
Baltimore he got 5 touches for 25 yards
Pittsburgh 4 touches for 17 yards
Detroit 3 touches 6 yards - 2 TD
St Louis 7 touches 80 yds
SanFran 10 touches 41 yds
Chicago 6 touches 42 yds TD
New Orleans 1 touch 55 yds, TD

So in 39 touches - 316 Yds 4td

8.1 Yds per touch, that is excellent production.

His production has slowed because he is getting less touches - Arians has gone almost exclusively to Chris Johnson in the last 4 games.

Now granted he is being used to his strengths more than he would be as the workhorse back, but at just 39 touches he is being way underutilized

You could be right maybe he wouldn't be better than CJ, but he should get the opportunity to find out.

Also he is young and under contract for a few more years - chris Johnson is old and a free agent.

In the few opportunities he has gotten you can see he does break tackles, and he does have breakaway speed. In other words he has much higher upside.

And much of that is due to how Arians is using DJ. As a receiver, or a RB in certain formations etc.

We really have not spent much time with DJ as the 1 RB in a base set and given him the ball, except late in a couple of games where the game was over and we were running out the clock. He's done ok in those situations but the special stuff he's done has largely been on designed plays to get a mismatch and exploit it(except for the KO return).

It's in a sense what we saw the first year of Ellington when everyone here was screaming play Ellington more he should be the #1 RB. Then the next year he was and everyone started saying we need a #1 RB. DJ is much bigger and stronger than Ellington but so far what he's doing is playing the role he's in quite well.

We have 3 RB's who are getting carriers, DJ is 3rd of the 3 in YPC and people are insisting he'd be getting more yards than CJ if he's the primary RB. That's what I'm questioning. It's based on watching him pull away on the KO return and the receptions not on what the #1 RB has to do which is move the sticks.

I guess we'll agree to disagree. I wouldnt' be surprised at all if we try to keep CJ next year, or let him go, it'll be financial. Hopefully DJ gets a bit better at ball security and running lower so he has a better chance to be the RB next year if we don't keep CJ.

 

[CardinalMan]

Why take PFF seriously this is not the only time they are all at sea. Statistical analysis is a subject that trips up the best, relying on statistics for a team sport is very risky. Degreed math and statistics majors as well as professors of statistics, make mistakes, sometimes big ones.

I can cite specifics if needed.

 

[kerouac9]

Having read numerous research articles and contributed to some, I can tell you with 100% confidence that most statistics can be manipulated to validate any hypothesis. Thus the term "inferential statistics." Despite K9's desperate attempts to justify FO's statistical validity, they are just as subjective as this post that I'm writing at the moment.

And so, with TJ's two assertions about FO refuted (Sanders and CJ) he retrerates into word salad.

It's unclear how stats that are posted and updated weekly with no regard for individual teams and players are cooked to prove a point. FO's metrics have the Cards a the second-best team in the league and underperforming their production.

TJ's argument that statistics are hollow unless he agrees with them (or something) is sad. Raw stats would tell you that Blake Bortles is a top QB this year.

 

[crisper57]

Keep on suckin' then.

 

[TJ]

And so, with TJ's two assertions about FO refuted (Sanders and CJ) he retrerates into word salad.

It's unclear how stats that are posted and updated weekly with no regard for individual teams and players are cooked to prove a point. FO's metrics have the Cards a the second-best team in the league and underperforming their production.

TJ's argument that statistics are hollow unless he agrees with them (or something) is sad. Raw stats would tell you that Blake Bortles is a top QB this year.

Nothing's been refuted, except for your expectation that FO's analyses are 100% objective and the end-all be-all for football evaluation. FO's metrics are still what they are--subjective analysis quantified in an attempt to rank and rate teams and individual players. Does not change the fact that the basis of their statistics are largely based on subjective analysis, such as preseason expectations. Not sure how much more this needs to be explained to you before the lightbulb finally turns on.

But, hey, kudos to you for the effort at rationalizing your $19.99/month membership fee.

 

[kerouac9]

Nothing's been refuted, except for your expectation that FO's analyses are 100% objective and the end-all be-all for football evaluation. FO's metrics are still what they are--subjective analysis quantified in an attempt to rank and rate teams and individual players. Does not change the fact that the basis of their statistics are largely based on subjective analysis, such as preseason expectations. Not sure how much more this needs to be explained to you before the lightbulb finally turns on.

But, hey, kudos to you for the effort at rationalizing your $19.99/month membership fee.

And here come the straw men.

1) Never have I said that FO's metrics are the be-all, end-all of anything. I think they provide some insight and value. It sounds like you disagree.

2) Support your assertion that FO's rankings are based on subjective analysis. Even their preseason expectations are based on prior-year statistical performance, and those phase out of the model as more data becomes available.

3) You literally said that FO probably didn't like Barry Sanders. When it was pointed out that FO's models love Sanders, you shrugged at your hypothesis being wrong and re-stated your original point. Who's basing their opinions on subjective analysis again? Doesn't the scientific method require that your predictions be right at least SOMETIMES?!

 

[TJ]

1) Never have I said that FO's metrics are the be-all, end-all of anything. I think they provide some insight and value. It sounds like you disagree.

I have nothing against FO. I don't believe in metrics as a means of replacing scouting or evaluating play calling and scheming. Using it as a crutch to evaluate performance in lieu of observation is bunk, IMO.

2) Support your assertion that FO's rankings are based on subjective analysis. Even their preseason expectations are based on prior-year statistical performance, and those phase out of the model as more data becomes available.

Easy. Here's FO's explanation for how DVOA is assigned:

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

Assigning values to formulas is a subjective way of validating data. Now, another metric-based company may come in and evaluate the same plays in the same circumstances and come out with similar or different results, but the point remains that two people may or may not agree with the outcome of the situation. That, in it of itself, is enough philosophical doubt to want to reevaluate their statistical parameters.

For example, PFF ranks CJ as the worst RB in the league; whereas, CJ ranks 18th in DVOA per FO. Significant difference in opinion.

3) You literally said that FO probably didn't like Barry Sanders. When it was pointed out that FO's models love Sanders, you shrugged at your hypothesis being wrong and re-stated your original point. Who's basing their opinions on subjective analysis again? Doesn't the scientific method require that your predictions be right at least SOMETIMES?!

What do you think the foundation of a message board is? It's about discussing and providing counterpoint to opinions based on subjective evaluation. Being right or wrong in player evaluations is not as important to me as it is to others.

I made mention of this earlier:

Despite K9's desperate attempts to justify FO's statistical validity, they are just as subjective as this post that I'm writing at the moment

(full disclosure: I work in the field of social sciences. I know much about trying to quantify subjective analysis and assessment into observable data).

 

[gamebird98]

Johnson has long been someone that puts up the stats but has never graded well, and there are a few reasons for that. It’s easy to run when your O-line is creating holes the size of three people. Currently, the Cardinals have our fourth-best offensive line in terms of run blocking. Johnson’s elusive rating is a mere 40.2, as he’s broken just 20 tackles on 146 touches.

On top of that, the Cardinals’ have one of the most dangerous passing games in the league. So, when you’ve got a really strong offensive line, and a passing game defenses need to focus on, you’re going to get some running lanes. But despite all the yards, Johnson just hasn’t done enough on his own to show he can succeed without the perfect offense around him.


Emmitt Smith.................