1. LOST SEASON
I don't know when the Suns next season will be I'm not convinced there will be ANY season in the 2011-12 period. My reason is that the owners cannot afford the status quo.
Miami is projected to have $65 million contracted for just six guys starting in 2012-13 going up to $71 million for the same guys in 2013-2014. They will pay over $60 million just for their big 3.
Dallas paid over $90 million this season. They will have to pay $61 million BEFORE re-signing Chandler, Barea, Stevenson, and some others like Butler.
The bottom line is that most teams cannot afford to compete. It is my understanding that close to a majority of teams would be better off shutting down than having another season of greater losses.
There are a number of implications.
2. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE DRAFT IN 2012: We've always assumed the 2011-12 season will happen eventually, just like in the 98-99 season. But the owners are unlikely to give in if they don't get a hard cap and some other ways of reining in salaries. If there is no 2011-12 season, there could be ANOTHER draft.
It seems likely that the courts would rule that players can return to college. DX shows a lot of Euro's in the lottery because they can be stashed. Some un-signed players could go to the D-League or go the Europe.
3. REHAB YEAR: Some guys like Lawal will be able to rehab without the pressure to return to playing. The Suns have a lot of guys that need to work on conditioning and skills development and this might help. Some of the young guys need to "fill out" and the extra time COULD be put to good use. If was in charge, I'd work on a detailed schedule of work guys can put into a long term preparation program.
4. PREPARE DETAILED SCOUTING REPORT: Last summer the Suns made a series of personnel blunders. Better preparation is not enough, but it can't hurt.
5. EVALUATE THE ROSTER: Going into next season, only one move is absolutely certain, Carter's contract will be bought out. Yes, his contract could be traded for someone with a huge contract, but I can't see Sarver buying into that. I think it will break down into three goupings.
A. WINGS: The Suns have four roation positions for four players.
HILL - Everyone worries about his age, but he is proably the Sun's best wing and is still very affordable. There is a fear he will retire, but seems happy so far.
DUDLEY - He signed a new contract last summer and is proving to be great signing. 47.7% shooting including 41.5% for three.
CHILDRESS - Childress was awful at the start of the season. He looked better late in season. With a contract starting at $6 million a year through 2015, it is hard to figure he will be easily traded.
PIETRUS - He is a good defender, but his expiring contract appears to be his biggest asset. His shooting is not good enough to make him more than a role players.
WARRICK - Warrick has not been impressive as a power forward, but with three more seasons at over $4 million a year, I doubtful they will be able to trade him without throwing in draft picks. I'm listing him as a wing because I think thats where he will end up. He needs to work A LOT on his defense and shooting, but I am doubtful he will ever be physical enough to play inside.
I can definitely see the Suns drafting a wing.
B. BIGS
GORTAT -Gotat came to Phoenix with a reputation as a big who can rebound and block shots, but no offensive skills. Instead he averaged 13 ppg in under 30 minutes per game on 56% shooting. By the end of the season he was a starter.
Gortat has been billed as being quite athletic and picked up on the pick and roll quite well. I look for him to become a much bigger part of the offense after having a training camp to learn the offense.
FRYE - Compared to his prior season, Frye went from 5.3 rpg to 6.7 rpg and was generally credited for becoming a decent defender. The move of putting him as a starter while letting Amare go hurt Frye's shooting, but overall he was still a good player. IMHO, Frye would be more effective coming off the bench, but the other inside guys are still not what is needed.
LOPEZ - Robin was a major dissapointment last season. In virtually every statistical category there was a drop off from 2009-10: ppg fell from 8.4 to 6.4, shooting % fell from 58.8% to 501%, rpg fell from 4.9 to 3.2, and blocks fell from 1.0 to 0.7. A lot of this is due to his drop in minutes from 19.3 to 14.8 due to his ineffective defense.
I doubt they will give up him quite yet. He was drafted after his sophmore year and has hed only three years in the NBA. He needs to get a lot stronger and quicker. This is true from almost every big, but he needs to at least get back to his 2009-10 production.
SILAR - Silar was undrafted out of Augusta State University. The consus was that he needed to lose weight (listed af 305), but in his brief periods of play averaged 027 rebounds per minute. He rebounded quite well in some of the games where got big minutes such as 5 rebounds in 12 minutes against the Timberwolves. No one knows what his future is, but he might work his way into the rotation if he keeps improving.
OTHER - I can see Warrick getting minutes as an inside guy. The Suns need a rebounder/defender. In addition of Silar, last season's draft picks, Lawal and Collns are still in the mix but we don't know what to expect. Lawal was injured and did not complete the season with the D-League. Collins played in Europe and I haven't heard anything about how he did.
Adding a draft pick is possible.
C. POINT GUARDS
NASH - Steve Nash is not likely to be traded. He still has value, but it takes having a team buit around his skills to make him worth while. It is hard to imagine a team that is good enough to be a finalist contender in the NBA in need of a Nash type point guard.
Clearly, the best bet is a gradual transition to another point guard, but it will not be easy.
BROOKS - Aaron Brooks hurt his ankles early in the season. He has been slow at recovering and it is certainly frustrating.
He stats last season were poor, but they improved over the season after being traded mid season. In 2009-10 he looked quite good: 19.6 ppg, 43.2% and 39.8% for three, and 5.3 apg. While slighly smaller, Brooks is more like Kevin Johnson than Steve Nash.
DOWDELL - The reviews of Dowdell is that he is a competant play maker and a decent defender. His shooting was only 40.8% and just 3 of 10 for 3 in 24 games.
I would not be surprised if the Sun drafted a point guard, but would be surprised if they took another guy not well suited to playing defense.
LONG WAIT
I expect it will be a while before the Suns get back to playing. I hope they don't do anything stupid.
I don't know when the Suns next season will be I'm not convinced there will be ANY season in the 2011-12 period. My reason is that the owners cannot afford the status quo.
Miami is projected to have $65 million contracted for just six guys starting in 2012-13 going up to $71 million for the same guys in 2013-2014. They will pay over $60 million just for their big 3.
Dallas paid over $90 million this season. They will have to pay $61 million BEFORE re-signing Chandler, Barea, Stevenson, and some others like Butler.
The bottom line is that most teams cannot afford to compete. It is my understanding that close to a majority of teams would be better off shutting down than having another season of greater losses.
There are a number of implications.
2. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE DRAFT IN 2012: We've always assumed the 2011-12 season will happen eventually, just like in the 98-99 season. But the owners are unlikely to give in if they don't get a hard cap and some other ways of reining in salaries. If there is no 2011-12 season, there could be ANOTHER draft.
It seems likely that the courts would rule that players can return to college. DX shows a lot of Euro's in the lottery because they can be stashed. Some un-signed players could go to the D-League or go the Europe.
3. REHAB YEAR: Some guys like Lawal will be able to rehab without the pressure to return to playing. The Suns have a lot of guys that need to work on conditioning and skills development and this might help. Some of the young guys need to "fill out" and the extra time COULD be put to good use. If was in charge, I'd work on a detailed schedule of work guys can put into a long term preparation program.
4. PREPARE DETAILED SCOUTING REPORT: Last summer the Suns made a series of personnel blunders. Better preparation is not enough, but it can't hurt.
5. EVALUATE THE ROSTER: Going into next season, only one move is absolutely certain, Carter's contract will be bought out. Yes, his contract could be traded for someone with a huge contract, but I can't see Sarver buying into that. I think it will break down into three goupings.
A. WINGS: The Suns have four roation positions for four players.
HILL - Everyone worries about his age, but he is proably the Sun's best wing and is still very affordable. There is a fear he will retire, but seems happy so far.
DUDLEY - He signed a new contract last summer and is proving to be great signing. 47.7% shooting including 41.5% for three.
CHILDRESS - Childress was awful at the start of the season. He looked better late in season. With a contract starting at $6 million a year through 2015, it is hard to figure he will be easily traded.
PIETRUS - He is a good defender, but his expiring contract appears to be his biggest asset. His shooting is not good enough to make him more than a role players.
WARRICK - Warrick has not been impressive as a power forward, but with three more seasons at over $4 million a year, I doubtful they will be able to trade him without throwing in draft picks. I'm listing him as a wing because I think thats where he will end up. He needs to work A LOT on his defense and shooting, but I am doubtful he will ever be physical enough to play inside.
I can definitely see the Suns drafting a wing.
B. BIGS
GORTAT -Gotat came to Phoenix with a reputation as a big who can rebound and block shots, but no offensive skills. Instead he averaged 13 ppg in under 30 minutes per game on 56% shooting. By the end of the season he was a starter.
Gortat has been billed as being quite athletic and picked up on the pick and roll quite well. I look for him to become a much bigger part of the offense after having a training camp to learn the offense.
FRYE - Compared to his prior season, Frye went from 5.3 rpg to 6.7 rpg and was generally credited for becoming a decent defender. The move of putting him as a starter while letting Amare go hurt Frye's shooting, but overall he was still a good player. IMHO, Frye would be more effective coming off the bench, but the other inside guys are still not what is needed.
LOPEZ - Robin was a major dissapointment last season. In virtually every statistical category there was a drop off from 2009-10: ppg fell from 8.4 to 6.4, shooting % fell from 58.8% to 501%, rpg fell from 4.9 to 3.2, and blocks fell from 1.0 to 0.7. A lot of this is due to his drop in minutes from 19.3 to 14.8 due to his ineffective defense.
I doubt they will give up him quite yet. He was drafted after his sophmore year and has hed only three years in the NBA. He needs to get a lot stronger and quicker. This is true from almost every big, but he needs to at least get back to his 2009-10 production.
SILAR - Silar was undrafted out of Augusta State University. The consus was that he needed to lose weight (listed af 305), but in his brief periods of play averaged 027 rebounds per minute. He rebounded quite well in some of the games where got big minutes such as 5 rebounds in 12 minutes against the Timberwolves. No one knows what his future is, but he might work his way into the rotation if he keeps improving.
OTHER - I can see Warrick getting minutes as an inside guy. The Suns need a rebounder/defender. In addition of Silar, last season's draft picks, Lawal and Collns are still in the mix but we don't know what to expect. Lawal was injured and did not complete the season with the D-League. Collins played in Europe and I haven't heard anything about how he did.
Adding a draft pick is possible.
C. POINT GUARDS
NASH - Steve Nash is not likely to be traded. He still has value, but it takes having a team buit around his skills to make him worth while. It is hard to imagine a team that is good enough to be a finalist contender in the NBA in need of a Nash type point guard.
Clearly, the best bet is a gradual transition to another point guard, but it will not be easy.
BROOKS - Aaron Brooks hurt his ankles early in the season. He has been slow at recovering and it is certainly frustrating.
He stats last season were poor, but they improved over the season after being traded mid season. In 2009-10 he looked quite good: 19.6 ppg, 43.2% and 39.8% for three, and 5.3 apg. While slighly smaller, Brooks is more like Kevin Johnson than Steve Nash.
DOWDELL - The reviews of Dowdell is that he is a competant play maker and a decent defender. His shooting was only 40.8% and just 3 of 10 for 3 in 24 games.
I would not be surprised if the Sun drafted a point guard, but would be surprised if they took another guy not well suited to playing defense.
LONG WAIT
I expect it will be a while before the Suns get back to playing. I hope they don't do anything stupid.
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