Mythbusters: PFF Edition

Chopper0080

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I point out Humphries age because in 5 years when he is 31, the following will be...

Nate Solder - 36
Joe Staley - 40
Russell Okung - 36
Trent Williams - 36
Duane Brown - 39
Andrew Whitworth - 43
Anthony Castonzo - 36
Jason Peters - 43
Alejandro Villanueva - 36
 

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Wait....what?

You ask me to name the tackles that I think are better than Hump then say "Yeah but that's YOUR list that YOU think is better". WHAT?

Was I supposed to give you Kugler's list?

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I'll say it again. I have no bias. I have an opinion that is shared by the majority of the football world and that is Hump is not a top half tackle.

Who is he better than from this list then? You show me where YOU think he fits in and then we can all have a chuckle.

This was the request:

Name the 15 better left tackles and statistically support your assertion.

Additionally, show us where DJ ranks and the numbers supporting why.

One can't help but be struck by the pure objectivity in how you've described DJ in post-after-post. Looking forward to the "objective" stats supporting your view and quote-after-quote from the majority of the football world who have actually taken the time to offer their assessments. That should be a chuckle!

As to where he fits in my mind?

LT for Arizona Cardinals on either a TAG or a 4-year deal.
 
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As K9 pointed out, Humphries 16 games this year eclipsed the amount of games he has played at LT over the course of the previous 4 seasons. 3 different offensive line coaches in 5 years. 3 different schemes in 5 years. He is still 26 years old. I agree that we are likely close to his ceiling, but the statement that he is incapable of any growth to me is very premature based upon his situation. The gap between DJ Humphries and Charles Leno/Taylor Decker/Older-Russell Okung is pretty small.

Now, if you want to cite his injury history, I get that. Prior to this season, he has not been able to stay healthy. There are arguments, IMO, that this could change moving forward, but I can understand that concern.

I more balanced opinion and I respect it. My issue though is I don't see him anywhere near Leno, Decker or Okung. That's really the crux of it.

That's my personal opinion from watching him, but also I haven't seen anything in all the football media I consume that says anything otherwise. Nobody is dieing on a hill for Hump. He's 56 in PFF's free agent rankings, he doesn't even make Bleachers list of top 5 FA tackles in a market starved of left tackles, there are numerous others. If anyone comes across anything that says otherwise I'm happy to have a look but the world sees him the same way. A below average tackle who is often injured.
 
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This was the request:

Name the 15 better left tackles and statistically support your assertion.

Additionally, show us where DJ ranks and the numbers supporting why.

One can't help but be struck by the pure objectivity in how you've described DJ in post-after-post. Looking forward to the "objective" stats supporting your view and quote-after-quote from the majority of the football world who have actually taken the time to offer their assessments. That should be a chuckle!

As to where he fits in my mind?

LT for Arizona Cardinals on either a TAG or a 4-year deal.

What have statistics got to do with how good he is? Or how good anyone is? Stats aren't an accurate measure which is why this "he only gave up 2 sacks" argument you keep leaning on makes no sense. I've shown you at least 3 or 4 sure fire sacks just avoided by Kyler that would have been on Hump and I've barely looked.

You said he's a top half tackle. Show me which of those tackles he's better than to make the top 16.
 
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What have statistics got to do with how good he is? Or how good anyone is? Stats aren't an accurate measure which is why this "he only gave up 2 sacks" argument you keep leaning on makes no sense. I've shown you at least 3 or 4 sure fire sacks just avoided by Kyler that would have been on Hump.

You said he's a top half tackle. Show me which of those tackles he's better than to make the top 16.

This coming from a guy who quotes PFF ratings to make his case!

Too funny!

I never ranked DJ... you did, over and over.

Are you going to tell one-and-all that you've actually watched in detail the long list of tackles that you emphatically claim are superior to DJ?

My view is quite simple: After a complete review of his season, I believe he will either be tagged or sign a longer-term deal. End of story.
 
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This coming from a guy who quotes PFF ratings to make his case!

Too funny!

I never ranked DJ... you did, over and over.

Are you going to tell one-and-all that you've actually watched in detail the long list of tackles that you emphatically claim are superior to DJ?

My view is quite simple: After a complete review of his season, I believe he will either be tagged or sign a longer-term deal. End of story.

Well that's where you are going wrong right off. PFF has nothing to do with statistics.

PFF is analytics. They are performance ratings from 3 separate analysts that watch each snap. It has absolutely nothing to do with statistics.

You are the one that keeps saying DJ is a top half tackle. If you think he's top half that means he's better than at least 16 other tackles. Who are they?
 

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Well that's where you are going wrong right off. PFF has nothing to do with statistics.

PFF is analytics. They are performance ratings from 3 separate analysts that watch each snap. It has absolutely nothing to do with statistics.

You are the one that keeps saying DJ is a top half tackle. If you think he's top half that means he's better than at least 16 other tackles. Who are they?

If there's a grade.... it's a STAT!

You're the one who has ad nauseam said that DJ is 20 or worse in the rankings. He who asserts must defend.

I have NEVER written that DJ was top 16 and consider "rankings" largely irrelevant. DJ either fits the KK offence going forward or not and based on that they'll either tag, sign him long term or let him go.
 

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I more balanced opinion and I respect it. My issue though is I don't see him anywhere near Leno, Decker or Okung. That's really the crux of it.

That's my personal opinion from watching him, but also I haven't seen anything in all the football media I consume that says anything otherwise. Nobody is dieing on a hill for Hump. He's 56 in PFF's free agent rankings, he doesn't even make Bleachers list of top 5 FA tackles in a market starved of left tackles, there are numerous others. If anyone comes across anything that says otherwise I'm happy to have a look but the world sees him the same way. A below average tackle who is often injured.

This is my thought, but after posting here for nearly 20 years, I think others will agree: you speak in such definitively terms that most of us will never agree with.

Humphries isnt too far off Okung.

De'Anthony Baptiste....that guy was way off Okung.

Look, I think that NO ONE is excited about resigning Humphries if it does happen. He has injury risk. I think you are massively overplaying how badly he has played. I think he has been a solid player amongst horrible players.

But the alternatives suck. You throw out Cordy Glenn...he sucks. And he is older. You throw out using the #8 pick on a LT, while none of the top guys are cant miss LTs.

The middle road is to franchise Humphries and use the #8 pick elsewhere.
 
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This is my thought, but after posting here for nearly 20 years, I think others will agree: you speak in such definitively terms that most of us will never agree with.

Humphries isnt too far off Okung.

De'Anthony Baptiste....that guy was way off Okung.

Look, I think that NO ONE is excited about resigning Humphries if it does happen. He has injury risk. I think you are massively overplaying how badly he has played. I think he has been a solid player amongst horrible players.

But the alternatives suck. You throw out Cordy Glenn...he sucks. And he is older. You throw out using the #8 pick on a LT, while none of the top guys are cant miss LTs.

The middle road is to franchise Humphries and use the #8 pick elsewhere.

I get you but doesn't everyone talk in definitive terms? I don't see too many "I think" or "maybe" going around.

I agree they will probably resign or tag him. As you know I don't think they should but its a different argument from him being good or not.

I don't intend to be irritating. It just comes naturally :)
 

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What’s funny about this thread is that all of you are right in your own way.

Hump is an enigma ..... That is for sure.

I just don’t think was can afford to not keep him this year. He is what the franchise Tag was made for.

Tag him.
Draft Kuglers favorite prospect in round 1 or 2.
And maybe even give Conklin a run as well.

if a miracle happens and we get Simmons in round 1 combined with a 2nd round OT AND a FA in Conklin, we may have just fixed our two biggest positional needs all in one offseason.
 

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I wanted to write something about PFF as I feel it is often wrongly maligned by fans. I understand why, as players do the same thing and fans pick up on it but I wanted to address some of those issues. Or one issue really which is the big one often spouted,

"PFF doesn't know what the play is, so they can't possibly know if X did his job properly"

This one gets kicked around a lot. By pundits, coaches and players. Although much less so than it used to as people from all 3 groups have learned more about the process.

Let's see if we can put some of those doubts to rest.

Chip Kelly was a long time critique of PFF. From his days as a HC to when he was doing color commentary he was not a fan,

Reporter: “I’m just wondering why Tiller doesn’t play more (over Martin).”

Kelly: “Josh (Garnett) obviously earned his starting position. He came here, Josh was just a little bit behind because he missed the spring with us obviously because he wasn’t available for OTAs. But, we got through training camp and knew we thought we had a pretty good one. As he got going during the season, he just passed Andrew by and then obviously Marcus is playing center. Andrew Tiller is not a center. So, when Daniel Kilgore went down, Marcus went in at center.”

Reporter: The reason I ask is if you look at the statistics, Tiller seems to be better?

Kelly: “What statistics?”

Reporter: Quarterback hurries, sacks–?

Kelly: “Where does that come from?”

Reporter: Pro Football Focus.

Kelly: “OK. Stick with that.”

Reporter: Do you not put much stock in that?

Kelly: “No, I mean I’ve said it all along, how can they grade an offensive lineman when they don’t know what the play is? I’ve had it before, our left tackle gave up a sack. He didn’t give up a sack because the guy slanted in the ‘B’ gap. The guard had ‘B’ gap and that’s not the left tackle’s responsibility, but it’s written down as a sack on the left tackle because you don’t know what play was called. We called slide protection. We didn’t call man protection. If someone can look at a film and figure out what we call for a play and know what our scheme is and then give a guy a grade on it, I think there’s a lot of players and coaches that feel the same way. I don’t know. You can do whatever you want with it. It’s like me going into a bank and grading a teller because they gave me a lollipop. I gave them a 94.3.”

After the season, though, Kelly did what the company has invited its critics to do: He studied its process. He met some of its analysts — who watch every player on every snap — and watched them make evaluations. And then, he bought a share of the company.

“The coaches that have come in there cannot believe the process and how thorough it is,” Collinsworth said in a phone interview this week. “Is it perfect? I’m sure it’s not perfect. But it’s pretty darn close.”

Longtime Bengals offensive line coach Paul Alexander (23 years as Bengals O line coach) in 2017 reviewed about 600 plays where PFF had downgraded one of his blockers; he told company founder Neil Hornsby that he disagreed with perhaps 12, “which is pretty remarkable,” Alexander said.

So for all the talk of "PFF don't know what the play call is" only 2% of the grades that the Bengals O line coached watched of his own O line with PFF were called wrong.

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Every play is graded by 3 separate analysts, many of whom are former players or coaches at NFL and college levels. Those grades are then signed off by a supervisor. If there is any disagreement on a play and they can't come to an agreement a play is never marked down.

PFF say many coaches and players visit their HQ every year and not one has ever left the building still in disagreement.

I will say this, the way PFF grading works is play by play and it is not weighted. You could for example, have a running back with 3 TD's and 70 yards with a grade of 60. If those 60 yards all came on 4 plays and his other 20 touches didn't achieve much. A 60 yard TD run can be wiped out by missing a blitzer.

I think this is where a lot of agreement on PFF stems from. You can have players that make explosive plays that catch the eye, a PBU, an INT, a 70 yard TD etc but still have a poor game grade because they didn't perform well on other snaps.

I don't think anyone should worship at the alter of PFF alone, but I also don't think it's accurate to say PFF player grades are inaccurate.

The Cardinals set a franchise-record in yards per carry and finished No. 10 in the NFL in ESPN’s pass-block win rate, holding back pass-rushers for 2.5 seconds or more 46 percent of the time. Even though Murray's sack total – 48 – was high, Pro Football Focus faulted the blockers on only 25 of them.
 

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Anyone who tells you a strip sack isn't a more important play than setting a hard edge on a 2nd and 4 running play to the opposite side doesn't really know football. #tapeeater

Like I said, the huge game that David Johnson had against the Eagles, he got like an 80 grade. They mentioned that he gave up a few pressures.

Some plays are just inherently more valuable.
 
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