Mythbusters: PFF Edition

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
37,387
Reaction score
27,542
Location
Gilbert, AZ
The funniest thing is when Brit posts stuff about Humphries from last offseason. We have literally 50% more evidence to look at on Humphries after this season. He played 27 games before this season (13 at RT) and played 16 games this season. We literally doubled the sample size of what Humphries can do at LT this year!
 

Chopper0080

2021 - Prove It
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,966
Reaction score
35,862
Location
Colorado
PFF is A tool. It is not EVERY tool. I love to use it as a cross-check but to use it to base your opinions off of is a little naive.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
The funniest thing is when Brit posts stuff about Humphries from last offseason. We have literally 50% more evidence to look at on Humphries after this season. He played 27 games before this season (13 at RT) and played 16 games this season. We literally doubled the sample size of what Humphries can do at LT this year!

There's one clip there from the end of last season but sure, ignore the rest.

And using the fact he's doubled his sample size in year 5 isn't really something that goes in the Pro column. It's one of the reasons we should cut ties.
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
There's one clip there from the end of last season but sure, ignore the rest.

And using the fact he's doubled his sample size in year 5 isn't really something that goes in the Pro column. It's one of the reasons we should cut ties.

??? :shrug:

Well, I'm sure when Kugler, an opinion that matters, offers his assessment, he won't be wasting time on DJ's health or play before he took over the O-line.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
37,387
Reaction score
27,542
Location
Gilbert, AZ
There's one clip there from the end of last season but sure, ignore the rest.

And using the fact he's doubled his sample size in year 5 isn't really something that goes in the Pro column. It's one of the reasons we should cut ties.

It's one of the reasons you should be cautious. I have little faith that Keim will be cautious in this instance, though.

Your Bleacher Report "poll" is from July 28 — last offseason, as well.

I count more than 3 seconds from when Kyler takes that snap against the Rams from shotgun until he gets hit. That's more than the longest average time to throw last season according to NextGen Stats.

On the Russ Brown clip, it's pretty clear that the play design is to move the pocket to the right. Everyone goes that way. Good for Kyler to make something out of nothing, but it's extremely possible he decided to try and make some magic happen outside the structure of the play.

That Denver Broncos game Barnwell is looking at actually happened in October.

What is in every one of those clips but no one notices is that he's completely uncovered by a Tight End in all of them and only in the first example does he even have a running back on his side (who provided no help). After watching a series of clowns require constant help on that side of the line, it's good to see that, most of the time, you can put D.J. Humphries out on the island and plan to get a good result. In each one of those examples, there was a TE or more chipping on the RT side, and that should tell you everything you need to know about what the coaching staff thinks about Humphries' ability to play.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
It's one of the reasons you should be cautious. I have little faith that Keim will be cautious in this instance, though.

Your Bleacher Report "poll" is from July 28 — last offseason, as well.

I count more than 3 seconds from when Kyler takes that snap against the Rams from shotgun until he gets hit. That's more than the longest average time to throw last season according to NextGen Stats.

On the Russ Brown clip, it's pretty clear that the play design is to move the pocket to the right. Everyone goes that way. Good for Kyler to make something out of nothing, but it's extremely possible he decided to try and make some magic happen outside the structure of the play.

That Denver Broncos game Barnwell is looking at actually happened in October.

What is in every one of those clips but no one notices is that he's completely uncovered by a Tight End in all of them and only in the first example does he even have a running back on his side (who provided no help). After watching a series of clowns require constant help on that side of the line, it's good to see that, most of the time, you can put D.J. Humphries out on the island and plan to get a good result. In each one of those examples, there was a TE or more chipping on the RT side, and that should tell you everything you need to know about what the coaching staff thinks about Humphries' ability to play.

3 seconds? It doesn't even get to 2.5.

The Ravens clip isn't designed because there are 2 WRs out that side looking back for the ball instead of run blocking. That's the first snap of Kyler's first game. They aren't giving an edge rusher a free run on the 1st snap of his 1st road game by design.

Look, these aren't the first clips I've posted. I've posted several more. If you guys want to ignore them that's fine. Nothing will change your mind.

I'm quite happy to revisit this during the season when he's trash or on IR.
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
3 seconds? It doesn't even get to 2.5.

The Ravens clip isn't designed because there are 2 WRs out that side looking back for the ball instead of run blocking. That's the first snap of Kyler's first game. They aren't giving an edge rusher a free run on the 1st snap of his 1st road game by design.

Look, these aren't the first clips I've posted. I've posted several more. If you guys want to ignore them that's fine. Nothing will change your mind.

I'm quite happy to revisit this during the season when he's trash or on IR.

Nostradamus !!!
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
Asking a question...your opinion.

Check yes or no.

Setup a poll and allow everyone to offer their thoughts. I suggest that the question could be:

Do you think DJ is in the top 16 left tackles?

(I'm sure Capt PFF can give us the 16 better LT's with stats and video clips in support)
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
11,115
Reaction score
11,947
Location
Las Vegas, NV
Setup a poll and allow everyone to offer their thoughts. I suggest that the question could be:

Do you think DJ is in the top 16 left tackles?

(I'm sure Capt PFF can give us the 16 better LT's with stats and video clips in support)
Hasn't BritCard listed the players he thinks are better over and over again?
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,069
Reaction score
14,673
Location
Charlotte
Setup a poll and allow everyone to offer their thoughts. I suggest that the question could be:

Do you think DJ is in the top 16 left tackles?

(I'm sure Capt PFF can give us the 16 better LT's with stats and video clips in support)

Asking a question...your opinion.

Check yes or no.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
Name the 15 better left tackles and statistically support your assertion.

Additionally, show us where DJ ranks and the numbers supporting why.

I've done this several times

Tyron Smith
Bakhtiari
Williams
Armstead
Whitworth
Lewan
Staley
Brown
Peters
Stanley
Leno
Tunsil
Matthews
Decker
Okung
Villanueva
Castonzo
Dawkins

There's 18 guys undoubtedly better than Hump. Age, injury history etc doesn't come into it. Only recent talent demonstrated on the field.

Then for me these guys are certainly better too

Fisher
Reiff
Solder
Donovan Smith
Daryl Williams
Cordy Glenn
Bolles
Beachum

That takes us to 26.

Then the guy that for sure Hump is better than are

Cam Robinson
Greg Robinson
Matt Kalil
Kolton Miller (for now)


It's not even close that he's top 16. And there are several right tackles that could easily switch over and be better than Hump too.

At the very best you could argue him into the Fisher to Beachum section if I'd drank a lot and was in a good mood but even if you put him in the middle of that bunch he's still 23rd.
 

Chopper0080

2021 - Prove It
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,966
Reaction score
35,862
Location
Colorado
I've done this several times

Tyron Smith
Bakhtiari
Williams
Armstead
Whitworth
Lewan
Staley
Brown
Peters
Stanley
Leno
Tunsil
Matthews
Decker
Okung
Villanueva
Castonzo
Dawkins

There's 18 guys undoubtedly better than Hump. Age, injury history etc doesn't come into it. Only recent talent demonstrated on the field.

Then for me these guys are certainly better too

Fisher
Reiff
Solder
Donovan Smith
Daryl Williams
Cordy Glenn
Bolles
Beachum

That takes us to 26.

Then the guy that for sure Hump is better than are

Cam Robinson
Greg Robinson
Matt Kalil
Kolton Miller (for now)


It's not even close that he's top 16. And there are several right tackles that could easily switch over and be better than Hump too.

At the very best you could argue him into the Fisher to Beachum section if I'd drank a lot and was in a good mood but even if you put him in the middle of that bunch he's still 23rd.
Tom Brady
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Ryan Tannahill
Pat Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Carson Wentz
Matt Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Jameis Winston
Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson
Jimmy G
Jared Goff

16 QBs who are better and more accomplished than Kyler Murray at this point in time, but that doesn't mean I want them as my QB over him for the next 5 years. DJ Humphries has the same chance to elevate his status among the peers at his position as Kyler does. I think we can say that he likely is never a top 5 OT in the NFL, but as the offense grows, his coaching is consistent, and Kyler gets better, maybe he can crack the top 10. Ultimately, if I can lock in an OT who can be in the top 10 - 20 range for the next 5 years, I do it.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
Tom Brady
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Ryan Tannahill
Pat Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Carson Wentz
Matt Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Jameis Winston
Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson
Jimmy G
Jared Goff

16 QBs who are better and more accomplished than Kyler Murray at this point in time, but that doesn't mean I want them as my QB over him for the next 5 years. DJ Humphries has the same chance to elevate his status among the peers at his position as Kyler does. I think we can say that he likely is never a top 5 OT in the NFL, but as the offense grows, his coaching is consistent, and Kyler gets better, maybe he can crack the top 10. Ultimately, if I can lock in an OT who can be in the top 10 - 20 range for the next 5 years, I do it.

Please.

Hump has been in the league 5 years and done nothing except keep doctors employed.

Kyler has been in 1 and won OROTY.

If in 4 years time Kyler was the 20th best QB in the league you would be replacing him too.
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
I've done this several times

Tyron Smith
Bakhtiari
Williams
Armstead
Whitworth
Lewan
Staley
Brown
Peters
Stanley
Leno
Tunsil
Matthews
Decker
Okung
Villanueva
Castonzo
Dawkins

There's 18 guys undoubtedly better than Hump. Age, injury history etc doesn't come into it. Only recent talent demonstrated on the field.

Then for me these guys are certainly better too

Fisher
Reiff
Solder
Donovan Smith
Daryl Williams
Cordy Glenn
Bolles
Beachum

That takes us to 26.

Then the guy that for sure Hump is better than are

Cam Robinson
Greg Robinson
Matt Kalil
Kolton Miller (for now)


It's not even close that he's top 16. And there are several right tackles that could easily switch over and be better than Hump too.

At the very best you could argue him into the Fisher to Beachum section if I'd drank a lot and was in a good mood but even if you put him in the middle of that bunch he's still 23rd.

What you've done, again, is offer YOUR list (as if you had actually watched them closely) with your peculiar bias.

I've reviewed our season with particular emphasis on DJ and find him worthy (my hot take) of either a Tag or a 4-year deal at $60m given the present market.

There's you and your PFF obsession and then there's Kugler's detailed assessment:

I'll leave you to guess which one Keim/MB and this fan considers more on point.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
What you've done, again, is offer YOUR list (as if you had actually watched them closely) with your peculiar bias.

I've reviewed our season with particular emphasis on DJ and find him worthy (my hot take) of either a Tag or a 4-year deal at $60m given the present market.

There's you and your PFF obsession and then there's Kugler's detailed assessment:

I'll leave you to guess which one Keim/MB and this fan considers more on point.

Wait....what?

You ask me to name the tackles that I think are better than Hump then say "Yeah but that's YOUR list that YOU think is better". WHAT?

Was I supposed to give you Kugler's list?

You must be registered for see images attach


I'll say it again. I have no bias. I have an opinion that is shared by the majority of the football world and that is Hump is not a top half tackle.

Who is he better than from this list then? You show me where YOU think he fits in and then we can all have a chuckle.
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
11,115
Reaction score
11,947
Location
Las Vegas, NV
16 QBs who are better and more accomplished than Kyler Murray at this point in time, but that doesn't mean I want them as my QB over him for the next 5 years. DJ Humphries has the same chance to elevate his status among the peers at his position as Kyler does. I think we can say that he likely is never a top 5 OT in the NFL, but as the offense grows, his coaching is consistent, and Kyler gets better, maybe he can crack the top 10. Ultimately, if I can lock in an OT who can be in the top 10 - 20 range for the next 5 years, I do it.
I'm not firmly in either one of these camps as far as Humphries goes (if it were up to me I think I'd franchise him), but taking a guy who is OROY, and has played one year, vs. a guy whose nickname was "knee deep" and has played for five years in the league isn't a fair comparison.

I get @BritCard's concern that Hump is just simply never going to ascend into the upper echelon. I kinda lean that Hump's ceiling is also kinda set at this point, and we'd be locking ourselves into mediocrity at best for five years.

But I also agree with some of your arguments that maybe signing him now will look like a real cheap value at the position when compared to some of the contracts in the pipeline.
 

Krangodnzr

Captain of Team Murray
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
35,662
Reaction score
32,636
Location
Orange County, CA
I'm not firmly in either one of these camps as far as Humphries goes (if it were up to me I think I'd franchise him), but taking a guy who is OROY, and has played one year, vs. a guy whose nickname was "knee deep" and has played for five years in the league isn't a fair comparison.

I get @BritCard's concern that Hump is just simply never going to ascend into the upper echelon. I kinda lean that Hump's ceiling is also kinda set at this point, and we'd be locking ourselves into mediocrity at best for five years.

But I also agree with some of your arguments that maybe signing him now will look like a real cheap value at the position when compared to some of the contracts in the pipeline.

Do you remember when Humphries showed up for OTAs, the media remarked how much more fit and lean Humphries looked? I think last season Humphries legitimately took a step forward because he was in better shape and he stayed healthy.

I dont think Humphries is a top ten tackle right now, but as @Chopper0080 pointed out, he will make that jump as the older guys retired.

Castonzo was trash for years, a bottom 10 LT and he made the jump over time. I think this is what we are seeing with Humphries.
 

Chopper0080

2021 - Prove It
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,966
Reaction score
35,862
Location
Colorado
I'm not firmly in either one of these camps as far as Humphries goes (if it were up to me I think I'd franchise him), but taking a guy who is OROY, and has played one year, vs. a guy whose nickname was "knee deep" and has played for five years in the league isn't a fair comparison.

I get @BritCard's concern that Hump is just simply never going to ascend into the upper echelon. I kinda lean that Hump's ceiling is also kinda set at this point, and we'd be locking ourselves into mediocrity at best for five years.

But I also agree with some of your arguments that maybe signing him now will look like a real cheap value at the position when compared to some of the contracts in the pipeline.
As K9 pointed out, Humphries 16 games this year eclipsed the amount of games he has played at LT over the course of the previous 4 seasons. 3 different offensive line coaches in 5 years. 3 different schemes in 5 years. He is still 26 years old. I agree that we are likely close to his ceiling, but the statement that he is incapable of any growth to me is very premature based upon his situation. The gap between DJ Humphries and Charles Leno/Taylor Decker/Older-Russell Okung is pretty small.

Now, if you want to cite his injury history, I get that. Prior to this season, he has not been able to stay healthy. There are arguments, IMO, that this could change moving forward, but I can understand that concern.
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,081
Reaction score
14,606
Location
Plainfield, Il.
As K9 pointed out, Humphries 16 games this year eclipsed the amount of games he has played at LT over the course of the previous 4 seasons. 3 different offensive line coaches in 5 years. 3 different schemes in 5 years. He is still 26 years old. I agree that we are likely close to his ceiling, but the statement that he is incapable of any growth to me is very premature based upon his situation. The gap between DJ Humphries and Charles Leno/Taylor Decker/Older-Russell Okung is pretty small.

Now, if you want to cite his injury history, I get that. Prior to this season, he has not been able to stay healthy. There are arguments, IMO, that this could change moving forward, but I can understand that concern.
Very logical analysis.
 
OP
OP
BritCard

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,315
Reaction score
37,785
Location
UK
Castonzo was trash for years, a bottom 10 LT and he made the jump over time. I think this is what we are seeing with Humphries.

Castonzo signed his last deal in 2015 that made him the 4th highest paid LT.

His PFF grades in the years before signing that deal.

2014: 84.0
2013: 77.9
2012: 77.6
2011: 68.9 (Rookie year)

I'm not going to get into PFF again but they certain aren't that far off the mark. Castonzo is a world apart from where Hump is at the same stage and even now Castonzo isn't a top 10 tackle.
 

Chopper0080

2021 - Prove It
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,966
Reaction score
35,862
Location
Colorado
LTs under 30 who I believe DJ Humphries can never be better than.

Tyron Smith - 29
Terron Armstead - 28
David Bahktiari - 28
Ronnie Stanley - 25
Laremy Tunsil - 25
Taylor Lewan - 28
Jake Matthews - 27

(I omitted Eric Fisher because I feel that he is an example of what Humphries ceiling is)

Again, Humphries is 26.
 
Top