I may have a slightly different take than you are used to seeing on draft grades, as I’m trying to find the teams that are going to gain the most surplus value — the actual on-field value a prospect has relative to their rookie contract salary — out of their draft picks. Team fit matters, of course, but at the end of the day, premium positions don’t hit free agency very often, so teams need to find those cornerstone pieces in the draft.
To expand on surplus value, take the difference between the NFL’s five highest-paid edge rushers (average $44.5 million per year) and its five highest-paid running backs ($16.6 million per year). When you factor in those costs against a rookie contract, using high picks on premium positions not only saves money against the cap, but it also provides a ton of roster flexibility.
For my draft grades, I’ve used our Consensus Big Board to provide an idea of where players should have been selected, then factored in their position to get an expected value of each draft pick. We have assigned a dollar value to each draft slot, which roughly follows the rookie wage scale.
| Team | Grade |
|---|
| Browns | A+ |
| Jets | A+ |
| Giants | A |
| Panthers | A |
| ... | |
| Rams | D |
| 49ers | D |
| ... | |
| Bears | F |
| Jaguars | F |
| Seahawks | F |
| Cardinals | F |
| Texans | F |
Arizona Cardinals
If you have followed me at all over the years, you're likely not shocked to see the Cardinals here (unless you actually expected them to have the worst grade).
I have little doubt that Jeremiyah Love will be a good running back, but the Cardinals are in no position to get the most out of a back given the current state of their roster — they have issues on the offensive line and at wide receiver, and that's before we get into the conversation over who's starting at quarterback. I'm not saying this is going to be identical when the Giants selected Saquon Barkley at No. 2, but that's where my mind keeps going.