Mock Draft - Post Free Agency

[DVontel]

There are some ties there. It is tough to determine the gap between 4th year Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson. Also, the Jets have a LT, have a DT and just signed a high dollar WR and DE. The draft really doesn't stack well for them if they don't take a QB in terms of value. If they don't take Wilson and trade Darnold, I just don't see them sticking at 2.

EDIT - I also believe the 49ers will be the most aggressive to get a QB.

Eh, I don’t think so. I think Darnold is already baked. I think it’s nearly guaranteed they’re taking Wilson.


Only team that kind of makes sense of trading back is Atlanta, & even that might be too steep of a trade back.


Lynch & Shanny seem to be the alter version of Snead & McVay. Just playing it safe instead of being aggressive.

 

[Chopper0080]

Eh, I don’t think so. I think Darnold is already baked. I think it’s nearly guaranteed they’re taking Wilson.


Only team that kind of makes sense of trading back is Atlanta, & even that might be too steep of a trade back.


Lynch & Shanny seem to be the alter version of Snead & McVay. Just playing it safe instead of being aggressive.

and this is what I think will be different this year. Only one season over 6 wins in 4 years. They are ready to make a move. Darnold, Watson, or a trade up. Mark it down.

 

[slanidrac16]

I don't get the Falcons quarterback links.

Matt Ryan is a great QB and only 35 years old. Lots of miles left on him yet. And I don't see any QB they could draft being an upgrade.

Better to draft a qb a year too early than a year too late. Not every web plays until they’re 40. If they have a mediocre year and go 8-8 they won’t have the opportunity to draft a top prospect without giving up capitol.
It appears if you are drafting in the top 5 the smart thing to do ( providing the talent is warranted) teams should draft a qb, Cb, pass rusher, or Ot. There are exceptions but imho these are the most impactful ( and expensive) positions on the field.

 

[Chopper0080]

Better to draft a qb a year too early than a year too late. Not every web plays until they’re 40. If they have a mediocre year and go 8-8 they won’t have the opportunity to draft a top prospect without giving up capitol.
It appears if you are drafting in the top 5 the smart thing to do ( providing the talent is warranted) teams should draft a qb, Cb, pass rusher, or Ot. There are exceptions but imho these are the most impactful ( and expensive) positions on the field.

But that is it. They would be drafting the 3rd QB to sit for two years before they see what they have and with having a first time HC. Teams aren't worried about 3 years down the road.

 

[slanidrac16]

But that is it. They would be drafting the 3rd QB to sit for two years before they see what they have and with having a first time HC. Teams aren't worried about 3 years down the road.

Remember Arron Rodgers. That worked out pretty well.

 

[BritCard]

Remember Arron Rodgers. That worked out pretty well.

You can't use outliers like they are a rule mate.

How many NFL starters have sat for 2 years+ then been good? Probably 1.

There are great QB's in every draft now. Why rush it? If Ryan does fade, well that just puts them in a better position to draft a good one.

 

[BritCard]

AVT would an investment in the future when they part ways with Pugh or 'if - when' Jones moves to RT.

In my opinion every draft should be the future. Sadly Keim can't draft for crap so we have tonnes of holes to fill now.

(I'm also not a huge AVT fan)

 

[Chopper0080]

Remember Arron Rodgers. That worked out pretty well.

They took a QB in the 20's and were coming off a 10 win season. Totally different scenario.

 

[Chopper0080]

In my opinion every draft should be the future. Sadly Keim can't draft for crap so we have tonnes of holes to fill now.

(I'm also not a huge AVT fan)

You should be. He is very good.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nice work.

Thoughts on RD#2?

Projecting it out, I think the top of round 2 sees a run on EDGE and CB. A couple LBs and WRs. Etienne likely goes in that group.

My guess is that we are choosing between

RB - Etienne or Javonte Williams
WR - Amon-Ra St Brown or Elijah Moore or D'Wayne Eskridge or Nico Collins
TE - Brevin Jordan
EDGE - Jordan Smith or Joe Tryon
CB - Trill Williams or Elijah Molden or Eric Stokes
S - Jevon Holland

Nico Collins fills an outside WR role similar to AJ Green. One of those two RBs fills a roster hole at RB. Same with Brevin at TE. EDGE is less of a need but has good value. CB would be a need but I don't love the value. I like Jalen Thompson but I could see the appeal of JEvon Holland.

IMO, best player value is at RB and EDGE and my guess is they go RB in this scenario.

 

[gimpy]

Chopper, where do you get your “My guess” reasoning for those picks? Are you associated with the Cardinals organization in some way? That sounds to me like you kind of have some insider type of information?

Projecting it out, I think the top of round 2 sees a run on EDGE and CB. A couple LBs and WRs. Etienne likely goes in that group.

My guess is that we are choosing between

RB - Etienne or Javonte Williams
WR - Amon-Ra St Brown or Elijah Moore or D'Wayne Eskridge or Nico Collins
TE - Brevin Jordan
EDGE - Jordan Smith or Joe Tryon
CB - Trill Williams or Elijah Molden or Eric Stokes
S - Jevon Holland

Nico Collins fills an outside WR role similar to AJ Green. One of those two RBs fills a roster hole at RB. Same with Brevin at TE. EDGE is less of a need but has good value. CB would be a need but I don't love the value. I like Jalen Thompson but I could see the appeal of JEvon Holland.

IMO, best player value is at RB and EDGE and my guess is they go RB in this scenario.

 

[Chopper0080]

Chopper, where do you get your “My guess” reasoning for those picks? Are you associated with the Cardinals organization in some way? That sounds to me like you kind of have some insider type of information?

I am not close with anyone in the Cardinals organization so this is all an educated guess. I say educated because I have coached football at the lower levels, have been blessed to chat with some higher level coaches and players and former front office people about what people in the league look for when drafting players and how it all works.

Most of that info is not earth shattering like how draft boards are set, how need and fit factor in, and how draft profiles are developed. But I like to share what I know and football in general has been a significant passion of mine for 20 years.

The one area I feel most on this board miss when projecting the draft is that most teams operate with a top 125 or 150 player board for the entire draft. This works because teams view scheme fit and roster composition so heavily when building their boards. If a guy doesn't fit, he isn't dropped down the board, he is dropped off the board.

An example of roster composition impact would be with Arizona and offensive linemen. Currently their roster looks like this.

Kelvin Beachum
Mason Cole
Lamont Gaillard
Max Garcia
Marcus Gilbert
Rodney Hudson
DJ Humphries
Josh Jones
Joshua Miles
Justin Murray
Justin Pugh
Brian Winters

12 experienced players for 9 to 10 spots and that doesn't include other players on the roster. There are only a handful of players in the entire draft who would be able to make the roster and that impacts the board. Aaron Banks and Ben Cleveland may be nice prospects but no point in drafting them in rounds 5 and 6 if they have to go to the practice squad to stick. And that doesn't even take into account for scheme.

So, in short, not an insider and just another message board know-it-all who can sometimes piece things together.

 

[GatorAZ]

One position I think you can take off the board is O line. I still see fans and analysts mocking AVT or Jenkins. Just don't see it. They already have Winters, Murray, Pugh, Gaillard and Jones vying for the RG spot. Possibly Gilbert too. Same goes for RT where it's likely already in pen for Beachum but also Jones and Gilbert vying for it.

Hard to see anything but CB right now, but I still think they trade back a little and pick up more picks.

OL under contract beyond the 2022-23’ season:

Josh Jones

 

[Chopper0080]

OL under contract beyond the 2022-23’ season:

Josh Jones

lol...Keim isn't looking that far ahead with this few of picks. If he was exploring the OG market, he would not have added Max Garcia and Brian Winters to the OL room. If anything, those signings should give people a belief that Josh Jones is going to get a shot at RT. Or someone is getting traded.

 

[gimpy]

Ok, thx, Chopper. So, an “educated” guess based on your research, etc. thx

 

[GatorAZ]

lol...Keim isn't looking that far ahead with this few of picks. If he was exploring the OG market, he would not have added Max Garcia and Brian Winters to the OL room. If anything, those signings should give people a belief that Josh Jones is going to get a shot at RT. Or someone is getting traded.

I believe that he believes that, yeah. To me Garcia and Winters really don’t mean anything in regards to drafting a OL high. It will have to be done eventually.

 

[Solar7]

OL under contract beyond the 2022-23’ season:

Josh Jones

Edit: Re-read and saw you were saying 22-23. I don't think we need to be worried about getting that far ahead of ourselves given the other holes on the roster that will be in similar situations.

CBs under contract beyond the 22-23 season:

 

[Chopper0080]

and someone got traded.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

and someone got traded.

I was just going to say good call.

 

[CardNots]

AVT would an investment in the future when they part ways with Pugh or 'if - when' Jones moves to RT.

I would like to see Jones replace Pugh next year. With center and LT locked down, Jones with those bookends would be some sweet feet on the ground. If Pugh didn’t take that pay cut could have been earlier?

 

[juza76]

I would like to see Jones replace Pugh next year. With center and LT locked down, Jones with those bookends would be some sweet feet on the ground. If Pugh didn’t take that pay cut could have been earlier?

If Josh Jones is any good would have to start at RG or even RT before thinking about replacing Pugh at LG

 

[CT CARDSFAN]

I'm taking JAVEN COLLINS, TREVON MOEHRIG or TRAVIS ETIENNE in the first. Collins will take the ILB for Jordon Hicks who should be released after June 1st to Give another 7 million cap space for another corner back. Moehrig would be a monster in the back end or could be cornerback. Need a great running back, then take Etienne.

 

[Proximo]

If Josh Jones is any good would have to start at RG or even RT before thinking about replacing Pugh at LG

He really must not be good.

If he was, they would not have signed Winters. That signing tells me they have zero confidence in him, because they already had Murray that could be a backup.

 

[juza76]

He really must not be good.

If he was, they would not have signed Winters. That signing tells me they have zero confidence in him, because they already had Murray that could be a backup.

Yes isn't encouraging for him
Even at RT they would not have signed Beachum
Maybe they invested the third round pick to play him as extra tigh end, great value in a top 70 pick

 

[QuebecCard]

I'm taking JAVEN COLLINS, TREVON MOEHRIG or TRAVIS ETIENNE in the first. Collins will take the ILB for Jordon Hicks who should be released after June 1st to Give another 7 million cap space for another corner back. Moehrig would be a monster in the back end or could be cornerback. Need a great running back, then take Etienne.

If you designate a cut as June 1, you don't have access to the cap saving until after that date and there certainly won't be a CB in that price range available.

Hicks is going nowhere - Imo.