Kyler Murray Going Forward Thread

[Weenus O'Baggins]

So the Kyler Positivity thread has kind of run it's course.

He is back and now it's time to have relatively unfiltered discussions about him.

For those who don't want that... there is still the open positivity thread.

For those who have felt shackled by that very thread (though at any time you could have made this thread), this is for you.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

Also...

Be respectful
Recognize that other opinions have merit as well
Don't just repeat the same stuff over and over.

 

[oaken1]

Also...

Be respectful
Recognize that other opinions have merit as well
Don't just repeat the same stuff over and over.

Lmao...this post kinda voids the thread Chris

 

[Crimson Warrior]

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[cardpa]

Okay, I'll start it. I made this statement when we drafted him and I still hold by it, a high floor, low ceiling selection and so far he hasn't done enough to prove otherwise. What you see is what you get.

 

[Resin07]

Okay, I'll start it. I made this statement when we drafted him and I still hold by it, a high floor, low ceiling selection and so far he hasn't done enough to prove otherwise. What you see is what you get.

I feel the same. I think that if we can build a decent team around him he can give the team above average results.

 

[BritCard]

It's too early to make any judgements.

While Petzing has said the playbook is open I'm not sure how true that is. We have seen the percentage of shotgun increase massively since Kyler's return and I imagine that is because he hasn't had the offseason reps to get fully comfortable under center.

I'll say this, I've been highly critical of Kyler in the past but he has all the tools required. We have seen them all over the years, just not often all together at the same time. I think this staff has the expectations and accountability to get the most out of him.

Also give him credit for the balls he has shown coming back from an ACL. A lot of QB's would be tentative, or welcome limited expectations. He's come back full go and put all the expectations on himself.

We need to give him time. No QB is perfect, especially coming into a new system mid way through the season after a major injury.

 

[DVontel]

While Petzing has said the playbook is open I'm not sure how true that is.

I believe this is just more than play-design.

Is Petzing calling a bunch of mesh routes like Kliff did?

Is Petzing moving his skill players around like Kliff didn’t?

Is Petzing calling a bunch of WR screens like Kliff did?

What are the route concepts looking like?

I think the answers to all of these are the inverse of what Kliff did.

I think people here just want Kyler to run a Ben Johnson/Jared Goff offense a lot when that just isn’t him. That isn’t guys like Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Lawrence, Stafford(McVay went from PA/motion heavy to Shotgun heavy going from Goff to Stafford), Lamar, Hurts, etc, either. Kyler just has to execute. The opportunities are there.

 

[DVontel]

I think that if we can build a decent team around him he can give the team above average results.

That should be the goal for a GM though. It should never be “if”.

 

[kerouac9]

Okay, I'll start it. I made this statement when we drafted him and I still hold by it, a high floor, low ceiling selection and so far he hasn't done enough to prove otherwise. What you see is what you get.

I dunno. The floor when we drafted him was pretty low. There was no real precedent for a short running QB from a spread offense in the NFL. Especially one who hadn't won anything. The ceiling he's shown is the best player in the NFL for more than half the season. That's pretty high!

Kyler's just always been a high-variance player. Kliff's system was supposed to iron out the lows while maintaining the highs. I think Petzing is trying to achieve a similar goal in a different way, mostly by trying to keep the offense on schedule better. With Kyler back, the offense has still really struggled to get and stay on schedule, although we're doing a good job of playing Canadian football and getting a first in two downs.

I don't think you're going to find out if Kyler Murray can win you a Super Bowl over these last six games. The team is likely trying to find out if Kyler can lead the offense and the team. They're saying the right things publicly; I'm cynical so I think they're trying to manifest it.

We have seen the percentage of shotgun increase massively since Kyler's return and I imagine that is because he hasn't had the offseason reps to get fully comfortable under center.

Do you have any actual data to substantiate this? We weren't under center much with Dobbs and (briefly) Tune. I posted the numbers before Kyler took over on another thread, but I don't remember where.

What PFR has shows that Kyler has five attempts out of 62 from under center, but I don't see our total snap percentage from under center. (BTW, on those five attempts zero have hit the ground -- four earned first downs and one was an INT).

 

[Arz101]

If Kyler is leaving the field with same questions every year, after 5 years, there is not much to desect.

I will give the benefit of the doubt to Kyler that the ownership support of the team, team coaching and talent are bad compared to other 31 teams

 

[TRW]

It's too early to make any judgements.

While Petzing has said the playbook is open I'm not sure how true that is. We have seen the percentage of shotgun increase massively since Kyler's return and I imagine that is because he hasn't had the offseason reps to get fully comfortable under center.

Perhaps. Not sure how much Dobbs was under center as opposed to Kyler so far.

I'll say this, I've been highly critical of Kyler in the past but he has all the tools required. We have seen them all over the years, just not often all together at the same time. I think this staff has the expectations and accountability to get the most out of him.

Yep. Therein lies the rub.

Also give him credit for the balls he has shown coming back from an ACL. A lot of QB's would be tentative, or welcome limited expectations. He's come back full go and put all the expectations on himself.

Agree.

We need to give him time. No QB is perfect, especially coming into a new system mid way through the season after a major injury.

He's got 6 more games to show what he's got.

 

[football karma]

i think Kyler is a second tier QB

my definition of second tier: ranked in the 4-12 slots. Teams can win with QBs like this and go far, even win a SB. Eli Manning won 2 of them.

but, with QBs like this -- a very good offensive supporting cast is required. Mahommes can cover up offensive deficiencies -- Kyler really cant.

i also think the thing that really troubles QBs in general and Kyler in particular is pressure in his face -- and i feel like the one common denominator for good Kyler vs bad Kyler is when the middle of the line has been unstable -- going all the way back to 2020. I dont think we see the best Kyler until the g-c-g positions have at least average players there

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Murray's gonna Murray.

 

[BritCard]

I believe this is just more than play-design.

Is Petzing calling a bunch of mesh routes like Kliff did?

Is Petzing moving his skill players around like Kliff didn’t?

Is Petzing calling a bunch of WR screens like Kliff did?

What are the route concepts looking like?

I think the answers to all of these are the inverse of what Kliff did.

I think people here just want Kyler to run a Ben Johnson/Jared Goff offense a lot when that just isn’t him. That isn’t guys like Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Lawrence, Stafford(McVay went from PA/motion heavy to Shotgun heavy going from Goff to Stafford), Lamar, Hurts, etc, either. Kyler just has to execute. The opportunities are there.

My point was the playbook can't be running the way Petzing would like if he's gone from 65% shotgun with Dobbs to 85% with Kyler. He's had to limit the book to take out under center plays he might otherwise be using.

 

[BritCard]

Do you have any actual data to substantiate this? We weren't under center much with Dobbs and (briefly) Tune. I posted the numbers before Kyler took over on another thread, but I don't remember where.

What PFR has shows that Kyler has five attempts out of 62 from under center, but I don't see our total snap percentage from under center. (BTW, on those five attempts zero have hit the ground -- four earned first downs and one was an INT).

Only someone on Twitter saying Dobbs was in Shotgun about 67% and Kyler has been over 85%.

Seems to tally with what we are seeing too. Kyler has definitely been in shotgun more.

 

[kerouac9]

My point was the playbook can't be running the way Petzing would like if he's gone from 65% shotgun with Dobbs to 85% with Kyler. He's had to limit the book to take out under center plays he might otherwise be using.

Before Murray returned, we were under center 31% of the time (169/550 snaps).

Since Murray's return, the Cards have been under center 16% of the time (19/118 snaps).

Lot of factors involved, but I wouldn't be surprised if, as suspected, Kyler's preference is to play from shotgun and the Cards are prioritizing that.

 

[kerouac9]

Only someone on Twitter saying Dobbs was in Shotgun about 67% and Kyler has been over 85%.

Seems to tally with what we are seeing too. Kyler has definitely been in shotgun more.

Well if someone on Twitter is saying it...

 

[BritCard]

He's got 6 more games to show what he's got.

Kyler really isn't going anywhere. Besides all the money issues such as Mike swallowing $50m and using up all next years cap space to rebuild there's just no way JG is going to go from "Kyler Murray is awesome and he's our guy" to "We're moving on".

It would make him look like a joke as a coach and undermine is credibility in the locker room. And there's no guarantee that Maye or Williams are any better.

As far as risk/reward analysis goes it's far better for Monti and the org to stick with Kyler. It would be career ending to move on, eat $50m and end up worse.

I'd be amazed if it happens.

 

[BritCard]

Well if someone on Twitter is saying it...

You literally just backed it up in the post above dude.

 

[Big Deal]

Kyler really isn't going anywhere. Besides all the money issues such as Mike swallowing $50m and using up all next years cap space to rebuild there's just no way JG is going to go from "Kyler Murray is awesome and he's our guy" to "We're moving on".

It would make him look like a joke as a coach and undermine is credibility in the locker room. And there's no guarantee that Maye or Williams are any better.

As far as risk/reward analysis goes it's far better for Monti and the org to stick with Kyler. It would be career ending to move on, eat $50m and end up worse.

I'd be amazed if it happens.

Didn't JG do this with Dobbs? He's our guy, he is going to start to he's not our starter but still part of this team to being traded the next day? I feel like JG doesn't mind going back on what he says publicly if they think it is the right decision to move on.

 

[BritCard]

Didn't JG do this with Dobbs? He's our guy, he is going to start to he's not our starter but still part of this team to being traded the next day? I feel like JG doesn't mind going back on what he says publicly if they think it is the right decision to move on.

No. He said all along he was a placeholder and Kyler would start when healthy.

 

[kerouac9]

You literally just backed it up in the post above dude.

Because I did the research and ran the numbers, then supported my numbers with a source. Thats how “evidence” works.

 

[Big Deal]

No. He said all along he was a placeholder and Kyler would start when healthy.

Yes, but I am talking about the time between him being the known starter to being benched. If it were Kyler coming back to start, that argument is valid, but there was a week in which Kyler wasn't ready to come back and JG going with Tune over Dobbs. After the game it was Dobbs will start to the next day, we are going with Tune.

 

[TRW]

Kyler really isn't going anywhere. Besides all the money issues such as Mike swallowing $50m and using up all next years cap space to rebuild there's just no way JG is going to go from "Kyler Murray is awesome and he's our guy" to "We're moving on".

It would make him look like a joke as a coach and undermine is credibility in the locker room. And there's no guarantee that Maye or Williams are any better.

As far as risk/reward analysis goes it's far better for Monti and the org to stick with Kyler. It would be career ending to move on, eat $50m and end up worse.

I'd be amazed if it happens.

Oh, I agree and would be shocked if they "moved on". But, if he craps the bed in the next 6 games they will be screwed no matter what.