Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray Are Running Out of Time to Produce Fireworks - The Ringer

Krangodnzr

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On the other hand, I’ve still got a healthy dose of skepticism that Kingsbury is the offensive pioneer that the Cardinals thought they were getting when they hired him from the college ranks. Kingsbury needs to get his run game rolling again this season, but more crucially, he’ll have to prove that his signature style of offense can work for a full season. Arizona remained the fastest offense in the league in neutral situations last year, and that’s a plus, but I’m still waiting for Kingsbury to unleash Murray as an aggressive downfield passer in the mold of Patrick Mahomes. Going back to his days at Oklahoma, Murray has always been a pinpoint passer on vertical throws―that was the case last year, when he threw nine touchdowns and zero picks on throws of 20-plus yards.

But Murray threw deep on only 11.5 percent of his passes last year, per PFF, which tied for 22nd among 39 qualifying quarterbacks (that was his deep throw rate in 2019, too). His average depth of target, 8.3 yards, tied for 21st. Kingsbury sure seems to be leaving a lot of meat on the bone in the team’s passing game with such a screen-heavy, horizontally inclined passing game. And he’s likely running out of time to prove he can fix it.

This could be a make-or-break year for Kingsbury in Arizona. He’s got Murray, who brings the accuracy, arm strength, and aggressive mindset to the quarterback position. He’s got Hopkins, Green, and Moore, a trio of receivers who combine to offer speed, size, and the ability to threaten the defense deep. But now Kingsbury needs to prove he can unlock his young quarterback’s potential, get the Cardinals to start the season strong, and this time make sure that, by the end, fans aren’t f*****’ sick of ’em.

This article captures my feelings pretty solidly. I've seen enough of K1 and KK to think that combination can work in the NFL. What I haven't determined is how much did having a lack of players to execute his offense influenced the poor finish or how much did Murray's injury affect the teams performance.

One thing that hasn't been discussed much on this board: What if the defense takes a big step forward but the offense falls somewhere between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2020? What if the team wins 20-12 slog fests and finishes the year 11-6? Does that inspire confidence and is that sustainable with Keim as the GM? It's a possibility that isn't too far fetched.
 

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its a good read and fact based



"Perhaps more concerning, the team, despite its previously efficient run game, couldn’t take advantage of the high rate of light boxes (six or fewer defenders) it lined up against. After finishing second in DVOA in 2019, Arizona ranked just 17th in that metric last year. They finished tied for 24th in stuffed rate, per Football Outsiders (with running backs getting stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage 19 percent of the time), far too often keeping the offense off-schedule on early downs. Murray wasn’t good on third or fourth down either, and the Cardinals finished 28th in DVOA in those situations."

i think this is a bigger deal than play calling.

for all the complaining (rightfully so) about the horizontal passing game-- six or fewer in the box means two high safeties that take away deeper throws.

being able to make teams pay for playing coverage via the run game is going to be critical.
 

kerouac9

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I still think that Kingsbury is tailoring the Horizontal Raid to Murray's preferences, not forcing Murray into a constrained box.

To your other question. The defense went from 20th to 10th last season, and defense is less sticky year-to-year than offense is. It's difficult to imagine them making a similar jump, but doing so would mean moving into an area like Tampa Bay last year.
 

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One thing that hasn't been discussed much on this board: What if the defense takes a big step forward but the offense falls somewhere between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2020? What if the team wins 20-12 slog fests and finishes the year 11-6? Does that inspire confidence and is that sustainable with Keim as the GM? It's a possibility that isn't too far fetched.
With Vance as our DC?

Hard to imagine
 
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Krangodnzr

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I still think that Kingsbury is tailoring the Horizontal Raid to Murray's preferences, not forcing Murray into a constrained box.

To your other question. The defense went from 20th to 10th last season, and defense is less sticky year-to-year than offense is. It's difficult to imagine them making a similar jump, but doing so would mean moving into an area like Tampa Bay last year.
I think its possible though.

A rejuvenated Chandler Jones and Watt together, Collins upgrading the middle, and a bit better CB play.

I think if AJ Green comes in and plays fairly well and Moore contributes at a reasonable level, the offense is going to have a lot more weapons than last year.
 

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Watching Flight Plan I saw Kyler throw a pick 6 on a swing pass.

The int or swing pass wasnt even my biggest issue. It was the fact they were throwing a swing pass to AJ Green. It had Kirk blocking instead. I dont want to see a bunch of forced swing/slot screen passes to AJ Green like Larry last year. Honestly I'd rather not throw swing passes to Hopkins much. Moore and Kirk should get those plays.



This article captures my feelings pretty solidly. I've seen enough of K1 and KK to think that combination can work in the NFL. What I haven't determined is how much did having a lack of players to execute his offense influenced the poor finish or how much did Murray's injury affect the teams performance.

One thing that hasn't been discussed much on this board: What if the defense takes a big step forward but the offense falls somewhere between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2020? What if the team wins 20-12 slog fests and finishes the year 11-6? Does that inspire confidence and is that sustainable with Keim as the GM? It's a possibility that isn't too far fetched.
If so Kingsbury runs into the risk of being in Matt Nagy territory.
 

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I think its possible though.

A rejuvenated Chandler Jones and Watt together, Collins upgrading the middle, and a bit better CB play.

I think if AJ Green comes in and plays fairly well and Moore contributes at a reasonable level, the offense is going to have a lot more weapons than last year.
Don’t let me rain on your hopes, but is it likely Chandler Jones significantly outperforms Reddick’s past season? That the Cards get better corner play from the dime store shelves they’ve been shopping?

Congrats to Robert Alford for finally making it out of the preseason, but there are 18 weeks left to go. Butler’s target rate last season is a testament to how little opponents thought of him.
 
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Krangodnzr

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Watching Flight Plan I saw Kyler throw a pick 6 on a swing pass.

The int or swing pass wasnt even my biggest issue. It was the fact they were throwing a swing pass to AJ Green. It had Kirk blocking instead. I dont want to see a bunch of forced swing/slot screen passes to AJ Green like Larry last year. Honestly I'd rather not throw swing passes to Hopkins much. Moore and Kirk should get those plays.

If so Kingsbury runs into the risk of being in Matt Nagy territory.
I thought Fitz was a massive drag on the offense most of the time last year, and even a degraded AJ Green will be better.

I dont care about running short stuff as long as Fitz isn't involved.
 
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Krangodnzr

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Don’t let me rain on your hopes, but is it likely Chandler Jones significantly outperforms Reddick’s past season? That the Cards get better corner play from the dime store shelves they’ve been shopping?

Congrats to Robert Alford for finally making it out of the preseason, but there are 18 weeks left to go. Butler’s target rate last season is a testament to how little opponents thought of him.

If he performs at the same level and Watt performs at last years level, the pass rush AND run defense is better.

I know you're a fan of efficiency stats...Butler gave up an 80 QB rating on his targets and I'll take that all day. A QB isn't winning with an 80 QB Rating.
 

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I thought Fitz was a massive drag on the offense most of the time last year, and even a degraded AJ Green will be better.

I dont care about running short stuff as long as Fitz isn't involved.
I get that. However, is 33 year old AJ Green really a YAC guy at this point in his career either? Just feels like a wasted play or a lesser play. We've got 4.3/4.4 guys dont call that for AJ.
 
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Krangodnzr

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I get that. However, is 33 year old AJ Green really a YAC guy at this point in his career either? Just feels like a wasted play or a lesser play. We've got 4.3/4.4 guys dont call that for AJ.
You have to be able to run those plays for multiple players for it to be effective. When you have a guy who can't block and can't catch the bubble screens it makes the play very predictable.

Look at how bad the Fitz/D Hop combo was running that play. Green/D Hop should be better. And you can move Green around and run it with Kirk and or Moore.

Heck, you could go 10 personnel and set up two bubble screens and throw to the side that has less coverage.
 

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Hey, Chiefs just ran a little delayed/screen pass behind the line is scrimmage for a 56 yard touchdown. Why can't the Cards do that, hmm?
 

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Plenty of competent coaches will want to coach Kyler because of his raw talent.

Kliff will be coaching a Division 2 school in the near future.
 

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Watching Flight Plan I saw Kyler throw a pick 6 on a swing pass.

The int or swing pass wasnt even my biggest issue. It was the fact they were throwing a swing pass to AJ Green. It had Kirk blocking instead. I dont want to see a bunch of forced swing/slot screen passes to AJ Green like Larry last year. Honestly I'd rather not throw swing passes to Hopkins much. Moore and Kirk should get those plays.

If so Kingsbury runs into the risk of being in Matt Nagy territory.
I've never for the life of me understood why Kingsbury designates plays for people with speed to players who have none. If you're gonna do swing passes and screens, why not do it with somebody like Isabella or Moore? It's dumbfounding.
 

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I've never for the life of me understood why Kingsbury designates plays for people with speed to players who have none. If you're gonna do swing passes and screens, why not do it with somebody like Isabella or Moore? It's dumbfounding.
It doesn't make sense, so look for the simple answer. Because he doesn't know what he's doing. Occam's Razor--the simplest answer is often the right one.
 

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I get that. However, is 33 year old AJ Green really a YAC guy at this point in his career either?
no, but he is a true outside WR that the Cards didnt have last year opposite Hop.

Kirk, Isabella, Fitz: all slot guys. Kesean Johnson was the only true outside WR
 

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It doesn't make sense, so look for the simple answer. Because he doesn't know what he's doing. Occam's Razor--the simplest answer is often the right one.
I think that is sort of true, but it is probably more like the defense would never expect me to throw Fitzgerald a screen pass because he's slow as molasses - but I will trick them and he will just truck this undersized DB or some BS like that.

In other words I think he still thinks he will outsmart the other coaches by doing something they are not expecting.
 

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Seeing Hopkins route tree in that article is hilarious. Further proof KK has absolutely no idea what he's doing.

It is pathetic. You never even send him on a fly pattern once? 80% of the time you have him go to the sideline?

I mean it's like he wants to take his best offensive weapon out of the game.
 

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This offense will go by what it does on first down. If we keep throwing passes 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage or presnap penalties we will stink.
We need to push the ball downfield and create run/ pass options on 2 nd down.
 

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This offense will go by what it does on first down. If we keep throwing passes 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage or presnap penalties we will stink.
We need to push the ball downfield and create run/ pass options on 2 nd down.
Yea those two yard swing passes havent really set up anything. You're better off handing the ball off from under center and picking up 2 yards because it at least sets up play action

The one time I remember a swing back setting something up was this.

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Now this makes you understand why Kirk is outside/potentially blocking. Kirk gets the deep TD on the play. We need more of this. However, Pharoh Cooper was a legit YAC guy so it was easier for them to believe he could do something with it. I dont see them getting froze with Fitz in that spot instead.
 
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