JJ Watt Production

Chris_Sanders

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In the big JJ Watt thread I said we needed a stat beyond just sacks to measure a defenders Impact.

Negative Plays: Sacks + Tackles for a loss

NP+TO: Negative plays + Forced Fumbles and Interceptions

NPTO+ QBH: Negative Plays + Turnovers + Quarterback Hits

I did not go into this with an outcome in mind. Here is the result. JJ Watt was the #20 most productive player in the NFL with this Metric. He was DE #11. JJ Watt will be paid as the #9 DE.

To me it appears that he is being paid as his production.

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Not sure why the table double posted but I can't delete it.

For @cheesebeef here is the information you requested.

He was actually hurt by adding in QB Hits. Just negative plays he was #13 in the NFL
 
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Chris_Sanders

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I will also say Reddick might just get PAID. I am sure if I did this in 10 minutes, his agent is walking up to everyone and saying he wants Zedarius Smith money
 

Minski

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Wonder what it would show if you worked in snap count when asked to rush the QB as well as some sort of weighting if they were double teamed or not?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Not sure why the table double posted but I can't delete it.

For @cheesebeef here is the information you requested.

He was actually hurt by adding in QB Hits. Just negative plays he was #13 in the NFL
Thank you fir doing this Chris.

what leaps off the page to me is not only Reddick at #6, but if you do just negative plays like you did above for jJ Reddick is #2!
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Wonder what it would show if you worked in snap count when asked to rush the QB as well as some sort of weighting if they were double teamed or not?


To factor in double team percentage, you would need to see how much that weight is. I would likely double the value for simplicity. So if you were at Watt's 39 "impact plays" and he was doubled 30% of the time then it would be IP*DP*2+IP. So Watt would be a 62.4.

From there you would need to run all the other top 25 guys.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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TJ Watt was 15% so his number would be 106.6
Aaron Donald was 70% doubled (LOL) so he would be 142.8

And that would seem to prove the formula of how dominant Donald is. Edge and Interior linemen would get huge bumps from the double teams while LBs would fall down the list
 

Shane

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Thank you fir doing this Chris.

what leaps off the page to me is not only Reddick at #6, but if you do just negative plays like you did above for jJ Reddick is #2!
He needs to come back
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Thank you fir doing this Chris.

what leaps off the page to me is not only Reddick at #6, but if you do just negative plays like you did above for jJ Reddick is #2!

Cheesebeef was correct that both should be counted. We should franchise Reddick if possible. I would rather do that than hand PP21 11 million
 
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Cheesebeef

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Thank you fir doing this Chris.

what leaps off the page to me is not only Reddick at #6, but if you do just negative plays like you did above for jJ Reddick is #2!

I think it’s going to be a massive mistake letting Reddick go. Last year was his first full time at the position he was drafted and he exploded.

but yeah... let’s give that money to a guy who’s 32, past his prime and seriously injury prone... and not just one injury, but injuries everywhere the last five years.
 

Cheesebeef

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Cheesebeef was correct that both should be counted. We should franchise Reddick if possible. I would rather do that than hand PP21 11 million

without a doubt. You have to see if that was a one year wonder with Reddick or if he just finally was used right.

Reddick, CJ and Watt would wreak havoc on opposing defenses.
 

Chopper0080

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I think it’s going to be a massive mistake letting Reddick go. Last year was his first full time at the position he was drafted and he exploded.

but yeah... let’s give that money to a guy who’s 32, past his prime and seriously injury prone... and not just one injury, but injuries everywhere the last five years.
I understand that history is on your side when you state he will be let walk. What I believe you are underestimating what retaining Reddick does for Keim's draft success.

Year Rnd Player Pick
2020 1 Isaiah Simmons 8
2020 3 Josh Jones 72
2020 4 Leki Fotu 114
2020 4 Rashard Lawrence 131
2020 6 Evan Weaver 202
2020 7 Eno Benjamin 222

Year Rnd Player Pick
2019 1 Kyler Murray 1
2019 2 Byron Murphy 33
2019 2 Andy Isabella 62
2019 3 Zach Allen 65
2019 4 Hakeem Butler 103
2019 5 Deionte Thompson 139
2019 6 KeeSean Johnson 174
2019 6 Lamont Gaillard 179
2019 7 Joshua Miles 248
2019 7 Michael Dogbe 249
2019 7 Caleb Wilson 254

Year Rnd Player Pick
2018 1 Josh Rosen 10
2018 2 Christian Kirk 47
2018 3 Mason Cole 97
2018 4 Chase Edmonds 134
2018 6 Christian Campbell 182
2018 7 Korey Cunningham 254

Year Rnd Player Pick
2017 1 Haason Reddick 13
2017 2 Budda Baker 36
2017 3 Chad Williams 98
2017 4 Dorian Johnson 115
2017 5 Will Holden 157
2017 5 T.J. Logan 179
2017 6 Rudy Ford 208

Year Rnd Player Pick
2016 1 Robert Nkemdiche 29
2016 3 Brandon Williams 92
2016 4 Evan Boehm 128
2016 5 Marqui Christian 167
2016 5 Cole Toner 170
2016 6 Harlan Miller 205

Year Rnd Player Pick
2015 1 D.J. Humphries 24
2015 2 Markus Golden 58
2015 3 David Johnson 86
2015 4 Rodney Gunter 116
2015 5 Shaquille Riddick 158
2015 5 JJ Nelson 159
2015 7 Gerald Christian 256

Year Rnd Player Pick
2014 1 Deone Bucannon 27
2014 2 Troy Niklas 52
2014 3 Kareem Martin 84
2014 3 John Brown 91
2014 4 Logan Thomas 120
2014 5 Ed Stinson 160
2014 6 Walt Powell 196

Year Rnd Player Pick
2013 1 Jonathan Cooper 7
2013 2 Kevin Minter 45
2013 3 Tyrann Mathieu 69
2013 4 Alex Okafor 103
2013 4 Earl Watford 116
2013 5 Stepfan Taylor 140
2013 6 Ryan Swope 174
2013 6 Andre Ellington 187
2013 7 D.C. Jefferson

Retaining Reddick and him maintaining his momentum changes the narrative of the 2017 draft class as well as the narrative around Keim's 1st and 2nd round history similar to how DJ Humphries 2nd contract and subsequent play has changed it already. A GM who can say they hit on a 1st round QB, LT, and EDGE rusher over a 5 year span sounds like a guy who is hitting on key roster spots. Couple that with the trades for Hopkins and Chandler Jones and it is really sounding solid if you aren't closely involved with the time it took.

Another area to consider is the narrative around "talent we failed to retain". Mathieu, Okafor, Campbell, Minter, John Brown, Golden, DJ, Boehm, Toner, Bethel, Massie, Kelemete, andre roberts and Watford have all hung around the league in a variety of roles. To have our roster issues with so many guys having left but still found a role in the league is a bit telling. I this has been more of an issue due to our players being in the past two Super Bowls and I imagine Bidwill is frustrated by this.
 

slanidrac16

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It’s a lateral move when you let a player go and replace him. That is not adding to the team.

if signing Watts is considered an “ all in” move then we have to fine a way to keep players lick Reddick. Period.
 

Cheesebeef

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I understand that history is on your side when you state he will be let walk. What I believe you are underestimating what retaining Reddick does for Keim's draft success.

Year Rnd Player Pick
2020 1 Isaiah Simmons 8
2020 3 Josh Jones 72
2020 4 Leki Fotu 114
2020 4 Rashard Lawrence 131
2020 6 Evan Weaver 202
2020 7 Eno Benjamin 222

Year Rnd Player Pick
2019 1 Kyler Murray 1
2019 2 Byron Murphy 33
2019 2 Andy Isabella 62
2019 3 Zach Allen 65
2019 4 Hakeem Butler 103
2019 5 Deionte Thompson 139
2019 6 KeeSean Johnson 174
2019 6 Lamont Gaillard 179
2019 7 Joshua Miles 248
2019 7 Michael Dogbe 249
2019 7 Caleb Wilson 254

Year Rnd Player Pick
2018 1 Josh Rosen 10
2018 2 Christian Kirk 47
2018 3 Mason Cole 97
2018 4 Chase Edmonds 134
2018 6 Christian Campbell 182
2018 7 Korey Cunningham 254

Year Rnd Player Pick
2017 1 Haason Reddick 13
2017 2 Budda Baker 36
2017 3 Chad Williams 98
2017 4 Dorian Johnson 115
2017 5 Will Holden 157
2017 5 T.J. Logan 179
2017 6 Rudy Ford 208

Year Rnd Player Pick
2016 1 Robert Nkemdiche 29
2016 3 Brandon Williams 92
2016 4 Evan Boehm 128
2016 5 Marqui Christian 167
2016 5 Cole Toner 170
2016 6 Harlan Miller 205

Year Rnd Player Pick
2015 1 D.J. Humphries 24
2015 2 Markus Golden 58
2015 3 David Johnson 86
2015 4 Rodney Gunter 116
2015 5 Shaquille Riddick 158
2015 5 JJ Nelson 159
2015 7 Gerald Christian 256

Year Rnd Player Pick
2014 1 Deone Bucannon 27
2014 2 Troy Niklas 52
2014 3 Kareem Martin 84
2014 3 John Brown 91
2014 4 Logan Thomas 120
2014 5 Ed Stinson 160
2014 6 Walt Powell 196

Year Rnd Player Pick
2013 1 Jonathan Cooper 7
2013 2 Kevin Minter 45
2013 3 Tyrann Mathieu 69
2013 4 Alex Okafor 103
2013 4 Earl Watford 116
2013 5 Stepfan Taylor 140
2013 6 Ryan Swope 174
2013 6 Andre Ellington 187
2013 7 D.C. Jefferson

Retaining Reddick and him maintaining his momentum changes the narrative of the 2017 draft class as well as the narrative around Keim's 1st and 2nd round history similar to how DJ Humphries 2nd contract and subsequent play has changed it already. A GM who can say they hit on a 1st round QB, LT, and EDGE rusher over a 5 year span sounds like a guy who is hitting on key roster spots. Couple that with the trades for Hopkins and Chandler Jones and it is really sounding solid if you aren't closely involved with the time it took.

Another area to consider is the narrative around "talent we failed to retain". Mathieu, Okafor, Campbell, Minter, John Brown, Golden, DJ, Boehm, Toner, Bethel, Massie, Kelemete, andre roberts and Watford have all hung around the league in a variety of roles. To have our roster issues with so many guys having left but still found a role in the league is a bit telling. I this has been more of an issue due to our players being in the past two Super Bowls and I imagine Bidwill is frustrated by this.

if the homers on 98.7 were already banging the “Cards can’t afford Reddick” drum yesterday as some here said, I think you know where that’s coming from.

hope to be proven wrong because if they do bring him back, you don’t just have the potential for a good D, but an ELITE game changing D.
 

slanidrac16

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if the homers on 98.7 were already banging the “Cards can’t afford Reddick” drum yesterday as some here said, I think you know where that’s coming from.

hope to be proven wrong because if they do bring him back, you don’t just have the potential for a good D, but an ELITE game changing D.
If we were to sign a player coming off a year like Reddick we’d be jumping for joy.
 

Russ Smith

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Is there a tab that allows you to delete Daniel Jones from the stats (-:

I'm actually not surprised, the last 5-6 games Reddick was REALLY good. Even the games where he didn't have tons of sacks he was in the backfield regularly. the only games where he wasn't were the 2 Rams games and that was a combination of scheme, lots of runs, and that the Rams run so much misdirection you have to make sure what's happening or you end up overpursuing so it seemed to slow Reddick down.

A buddy is a big Dolphins fan he says they are making Reddick a prime target if he hits FA, they were apparently impressed with him when we played them, and he didn't even have a sack in that game.

I hope we are able to restructure some guys and keep him. I obviously don't want to OVER pay him, but I really feel like the decision was it's going to be easier for us to build a good pass rush than get good CB's so we're going that route so I want to keep the pass rushers we already have too
 

ASUCHRIS

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Tagging Reddick or putting the transition tag on him seems to be the right move if you fear the one year wonder problem. If he proves to be an elite pass rusher two years in a row, then you look into a longer term deal.
 

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