Is Kyler Murray the answer at QB for next year and beyond?

slanidrac16

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The Cards have never gone 0-6 in the NFC West. Kind of crazy.



It's interesting, but I don't know. It's just as hope drains away, cope fills in.

It's a high-dollar version of the Justin Fields question (and an argument I was making last year with Kliff v Kyler). Put the salary to the side for now. Hard to see Kyler being the best QB in the NFL in this offense -- it's not really built to promote QB excellence. But it can probably succeed in being a top 10 unit with solidly above-average QB play. I think Kyler can consistently be an average to above-average quarterback. So, if you have a chance to upgrade to a special QB, but the downside is a below-average QB and you don't get to improve other areas of the roster, why take that chance?

You'd love to be in the situation the Rams were in with Goff. The ceiling was going to the Super Bowl, but the QB probably didn't have the juice to get you over the top (this is also where the Lions are now probably). Then you risk it all to get to the promised land. I don't think we're there yet.
My view on Kyler was we needed to take the entire offense off his shoulders. He doesn’t have to be a top 3 qb. Top 10 can get you to the playoffs.
Sunday was a perfect example. Operate the offense. Use his legs to extend plays. Use the run game.
The design of this offense does not lean toward 350-400 yard passing games.
 

kerouac9

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He doesn’t have to be a top 3 qb. Top 10 can get you to the playoffs.
I get that. The squabble will be that Kyler is once Russ gets released Kyler will be on a Top 5 contract going into next year (pending new deals for Trevor Lawrence and Tua, and a re-up for Patrick Mahomes).
 

DaHilg

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It's interesting how expectations for Murray started out as Franchise QB, QBOTF, Top 5 QB when he was first drafted and early in his career (and just so we're clear, Franchise QB, QBOTF, Top 5 QB means to me a QB who can carry a team and elevate players around him) to hopefully he can be a good game manager, he needs good to really good talent around him to succeed, if he can just play at a competent level he will be okay at this stage in his career.
Just gonna shake my head at this post… there’s about 5 loud people who view it as this progression.

If Kyler is just a game manager, I don’t want him… same with most. Outside of those ~5 people, I think most simply have a question mark…has the recent past been more so bc of a coach that was never qualified to run an NFL offense and a depleted roster OR because Kyler is “mid”.

I think MOST of us have seen enough glimpses of greatness that we’d like to see the answer of that through NFL coaching and an adequate roster around him - 2 things any QB in the league needs to succeed (not just Kyler ). If after that - which should be next season, we are seeing the same results - then I’m sure most that are not part of that “loud” crew would like to see him go.
 

dreamcastrocks

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You'd love to be in the situation the Rams were in with Goff. The ceiling was going to the Super Bowl, but the QB probably didn't have the juice to get you over the top (this is also where the Lions are now probably). Then you risk it all to get to the promised land. I don't think we're there yet.
You don't say...
 

slanidrac16

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I get that. The squabble will be that Kyler is once Russ gets released Kyler will be on a Top 5 contract going into next year (pending new deals for Trevor Lawrence and Tua, and a re-up for Patrick Mahomes).
I get that . By the end of next year he will be top 8 and lower after that. If he doesn’t perform he will never see a contract like the one he has now.
 

JohnnyCakes

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I get that. The squabble will be that Kyler is once Russ gets released Kyler will be on a Top 5 contract going into next year (pending new deals for Trevor Lawrence and Tua, and a re-up for Patrick Mahomes).
Justin
fields will get paid too
 

slanidrac16

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Just gonna shake my head at this post… there’s about 5 loud people who view it as this progression.

If Kyler is just a game manager, I don’t want him… same with most. Outside of those ~5 people, I think most simply have a question mark…has the recent past been more so bc of a coach that was never qualified to run an NFL offense and a depleted roster OR because Kyler is “mid”.

I think MOST of us have seen enough glimpses of greatness that we’d like to see the answer of that through NFL coaching and an adequate roster around him - 2 things any QB in the league needs to succeed (not just Kyler ). If after that - which should be next season, we are seeing the same results - then I’m sure most that are not part of that “loud” crew would like to see him go.
Goes without saying. That’s the conundrum we are wrestling with. I think most of us ( the level headed ones) kind of realize two things.
1. We are kind of stuck with Kyler and his contract THIS year.
2. We hope with some addition weapons, coaching and scheme he will be the guy that can help us win.

There are two other groups on this site.
1. Get rid of him, eat the cap hit, he’s never going to get better.
2. Poor Kyler never has had the coaching or surrounding talent. He’s a great qb. Remember the first half of 2021.
lol…kind of like politics. Far left, far right and middle ground.
 

DaHilg

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Goes without saying. That’s the conundrum we are wrestling with. I think most of us ( the level headed ones) kind of realize two things.
1. We are kind of stuck with Kyler and his contract THIS year.
2. We hope with some addition weapons, coaching and scheme he will be the guy that can help us win.

There are two other groups on this site.
1. Get rid of him, eat the cap hit, he’s never going to get better.
2. Poor Kyler never has had the coaching or surrounding talent. He’s a great qb. Remember the first half of 2021.
lol…kind of like politics. Far left, far right and middle ground.
I don’t think we need to label it as “poor” Kyler… it’s reality and would be so for any QB. No need to toss a dig.. let’s see what he can do next season - no excuses in my book after that (along with most rational folks)
 

Shane

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I get that. The squabble will be that Kyler is once Russ gets released Kyler will be on a Top 5 contract going into next year (pending new deals for Trevor Lawrence and Tua, and a re-up for Patrick Mahomes).
I’m pretty sure Mahomes got a raise this last off season?
 

Shane

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Was it a raise, or moving around money to help their cap situation?

Looks like you’re right. But made him the highest per year average for the next three years and his contract isn’t up till 2031 so I don’t see them being in any rush to get another extension done.
 

slanidrac16

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I don’t think we need to label it as “poor” Kyler… it’s reality and would be so for any QB. No need to toss a dig.. let’s see what he can do next season - no excuses in my book after that (along with most rational folks)
Wasn’t attempting to throw a dig. More of describing the polar opposites of the board.
 

ajcardfan

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My view on Kyler was we needed to take the entire offense off his shoulders. He doesn’t have to be a top 3 qb. Top 10 can get you to the playoffs.
Sunday was a perfect example. Operate the offense. Use his legs to extend plays. Use the run game.
The design of this offense does not lean toward 350-400 yard passing games.
I agree. Here are all of Kyler's 300+ games. Two of them are 400+. Of those games, the lowest number of passing attempts is 34. Most are in the 40s and 50s. If the offense is going well, Kyler is not going to get those numbers of attempts. His highest number this season, was the worst offensive game with him, which was the Rams. We couldn't run at all.
 

DVontel

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he needs good to really good talent around him to succeed,
Kind of scary how fans have painted this into a negative.

I would think every QB to play the game of football would need good talent around them to succeed.

It’s almost as if fans would rather see absolute garbage around a QB to see if they would survive rather than seeing good talent around them.
 

kerouac9

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I get that . By the end of next year he will be top 8 and lower after that. If he doesn’t perform he will never see a contract like the one he has now.

I don't know. Lawrence has been pretty mid this season. I don't think Jacksonville will move on from him, but I think teams are learning a lesson from Kyler's contract that you don't want to put out major money unless you're Really Sure.

I think they pick up his fifth-year option unless he makes a run to the AFC Championship game or something.

Tua is another interesting case. If he goes to the AFC Championship game, all bets are off, but they already have the fifth-year option and the franchise tag if they want it.

Justin
fields will get paid too

Will he? I doubt it. It would be profoundly stupid to pay top 10 money to a guy who's clearly not a top 10 QB. The past few years there hasn't been an Andy Dalton-style Middle Class QB contract, but I think that market has emerged.

Daniel Jones got $40 million a year last year.
Derek Carr got $27.5 million a year.
Geno Smith got $25 million.
Jimmy G got $24.25 million.

It'd be difficult to argue that Justin Fields is substantially better than any of these guys with a straight face. I think Fields could get and would sign an extension worth in the ballpark of $30-35 million a year that wouldn't handicap the Bears from building around him.

Goes without saying. That’s the conundrum we are wrestling with. I think most of us ( the level headed ones) kind of realize two things.
1. We are kind of stuck with Kyler and his contract THIS year.
2. We hope with some addition weapons, coaching and scheme he will be the guy that can help us win.

There are two other groups on this site.
1. Get rid of him, eat the cap hit, he’s never going to get better.
2. Poor Kyler never has had the coaching or surrounding talent. He’s a great qb. Remember the first half of 2021.
lol…kind of like politics. Far left, far right and middle ground.

I think we want him to be the guy that can help us win but won't sink the team on days when he's merely average. That's a big departure from the philosophy under Kliff and Keim, which was put tools around Kyler and Let Him Cook.

I don't know if that gets him to a contract that Michael Bidwill enjoys paying or doesn't hamstring Monti Ossenfort's ambitions. We'll know in a year or two.
 

kerouac9

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Looks like you’re right. But made him the highest per year average for the next three years and his contract isn’t up till 2031 so I don’t see them being in any rush to get another extension done.

Fair enough. I know I'd heard that KC was trying to make something happen. I just didn't scroll far enough down the page on OTC.

Kind of scary how fans have painted this into a negative.

I would think every QB to play the game of football would need good talent around them to succeed.

It’s almost as if fans would rather see absolute garbage around a QB to see if they would survive rather than seeing good talent around them.

I guess it depends on how much talent the QB needs around them to be successful. Every QB needs someone to throw to and someone to protect them. Mahomes won the Super Bowl with more assets to the latter and fewer to the former. Joe Burrow got close with more assets in the former and fewer in the latter.

The Tom Brady Patriots and to a lesser extent the Manning Broncos and Colts, Brees Saints, and Rodgers Packers distorted team-building in a pretty big way. Support a young QB with elite weapons and then strip them away to focus on defense as they reach their peak (which will naturally last 10-12 years).

EDIT: I guess I think you're overly exaggerating. People think that Kyler got the big money and should be able to succeed with less talent so that we can invest in other areas. I don't think that we expected to get Pint-sized Ryan Tannehill, but that's kind of what we've been talking about the second half of this season.
 

DVontel

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Fair enough. I know I'd heard that KC was trying to make something happen. I just didn't scroll far enough down the page on OTC.



I guess it depends on how much talent the QB needs around them to be successful. Every QB needs someone to throw to and someone to protect them. Mahomes won the Super Bowl with more assets to the latter and fewer to the former. Joe Burrow got close with more assets in the former and fewer in the latter.

The Tom Brady Patriots and to a lesser extent the Manning Broncos and Colts, Brees Saints, and Rodgers Packers distorted team-building in a pretty big way. Support a young QB with elite weapons and then strip them away to focus on defense as they reach their peak (which will naturally last 10-12 years).

EDIT: I guess I think you're overly exaggerating. People think that Kyler got the big money and should be able to succeed with less talent so that we can invest in other areas. I don't think that we expected to get Pint-sized Ryan Tannehill, but that's kind of what we've been talking about the second half of this season.
I do agree with you, but knowing cardpa’s history, this isn’t the vibe I got from dude at all.
 

JohnnyCakes

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I don't know. Lawrence has been pretty mid this season. I don't think Jacksonville will move on from him, but I think teams are learning a lesson from Kyler's contract that you don't want to put out major money unless you're Really Sure.

I think they pick up his fifth-year option unless he makes a run to the AFC Championship game or something.

Tua is another interesting case. If he goes to the AFC Championship game, all bets are off, but they already have the fifth-year option and the franchise tag if they want it.



Will he? I doubt it. It would be profoundly stupid to pay top 10 money to a guy who's clearly not a top 10 QB. The past few years there hasn't been an Andy Dalton-style Middle Class QB contract, but I think that market has emerged.

Daniel Jones got $40 million a year last year.
Derek Carr got $27.5 million a year.
Geno Smith got $25 million.
Jimmy G got $24.25 million.

It'd be difficult to argue that Justin Fields is substantially better than any of these guys with a straight face. I think Fields could get and would sign an extension worth in the ballpark of $30-35 million a year that wouldn't handicap the Bears from building around him.



I think we want him to be the guy that can help us win but won't sink the team on days when he's merely average. That's a big departure from the philosophy under Kliff and Keim, which was put tools around Kyler and Let Him Cook.

I don't know if that gets him to a contract that Michael Bidwill enjoys paying or doesn't hamstring Monti Ossenfort's ambitions. We'll know in a year or two.
Justin Fields will want to be paid....handsomely. If Kyler Murray is making 40 mill a year he will want more. I bet he gets 7 yrs 290 mil with 170 guaranteed.
 

kerouac9

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eh, just my opinion.
I mean, he can want what he wants. He doesn't deserve that, and he doesn't have a market where he'll get it elsewhere. There's no world where a quarterback who is 11-27 and never eclipsed 2600 passing yards in a season and has zero Pro Bowls becomes the highest-paid QB in the NFL.

He's not even eligible to start negotiating until after this season.
 

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