In The Lab: A Look at Center Field Offense

[ASFN Admin]

You must be registered for see images

At the outset I have to admit that I am going to break one of my rules. I am including Jake Meyers and Taylor Trammel even though they do not qualify under the 120 out rule. I am doing it for two reasons. First, Meyers comes very close with 114 outs, so sometimes that 120 designation can feel rather arbitrary. More importantly, it gives us a total picture of the center field position. When we include Brice Matthews we get a total picture of the Astros side of things and it gives us 16 center fielders to profile instead of 14. The bigger the sample size the better the data.

The number one thing we have noticed throughout this series is that each position stands on its own and center field is no different. The big league average for bases per out was .676 before the break, but every position has come in above or below that mark. So, before we make any declarative statements about the Astros and center field we need to take the position norm into account.

However, the distribution of outs demonstrates opportunity. Generally speaking, you want the best players getting the most opportunities. When that doesn’t happen, that is an example of inefficiency. Naturally, if this were a commentary piece then we could attribute blame on one person or another. Since it isn’t, we can chalk it up to an organizational failure and simply highlight that. In a close division and wild card race, organizational failures like that are magnified.

This is a reminder that bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing that sum by total outs. All of the components are available on baseball-reference.com, but it is not a recognized stat yet. I suppose we can say we are on the ground floor of a movement, but I did not invent the stat. It just hasn’t caught on yet.

Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Mike Trout	221	134	67	7	4	.959
Byron Buxton	228	176	23	7	4	.921
Tristan Peters	181	119	18	5	3	.801
Trent Grisham	206	109	41	7	0	.762
Julio Rodriguez	266	146	29	12	4	.718
Ceddanne Rafaela	262	148	18	12	6	.702
Lane Thomas	186	90	34	4	2	.699
Henry Bolte	139	61	15	11	8	.683
Daulton Varsho	214	108	26	9	2	.678
Evan Carter	188	74	33	11	4	.649
Leodys Taveras	209	92	28	10	1	.628
Colton Cowser	164	70	26	4	1	.616
Taylor Trammel	88	42	9	1	1	.602
Cedric Mullins	239	95	26	14	5	.586
Brice Matthews	177	69	15	4	0	.497
Jake Meyers	114	43	10	1	1	.482
Mean	192.6	98.5	26.1	7.4	2.9	.701
Median	197	94	25	7	3	.680

Now, to be perfectly fair, the Astros haven’t employed just one guy out there and watched him fail day after day. The initial plan was to give Meyers the bulk of the playing time and hope he could produce close to what he did in 2025. Many of us were pointing out that his 2025 were well above career norms, but let’s avoid the I told you so’s for the time being.

Their backup plan was Zach Cole. He had a .465 BPO before he was banished to the minor leagues again. I suppose we could add that to the center field ledger. The Astros converted Mathews into an outfielder this winter, but he still has some time at second base and a game or two at third. So, not all of those numbers belong in center field. However, it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Astros have the worst center field offense in the American League by a fairly significant margin.

It would be simple for a guy like to me to suggest that Trammel should get more playing time, but we have to remember he lost approximately a month to injury. So, the playing time distribution is not nearly as stark as it looks, but the fact that Mathews and Meyers have nearly 300 outs between borders on criminal. The Astros center field splits are listed below.

AVG/OBP/SLG: .220/.280/..352
HR: 9
Runs: 40
RBI: 35
SO/BB: 95/27

That’s just gawdawful and the strikeouts make it look that much worse. It should be noted that Joey Loperfido is also capable of playing in center and has played some center this year. His BPO did not come in above Trammel, but it is considerably better than Mathews and Meyers. Of course, Meyers was sent down and is currently performing well in Sugar Land. Maybe the bulk of the season was a slump he just needed to break out of. Maybe he is just one of those guys that has mastered AAA, but can’t consistently succeed at the big league level. Maybe he was banged up. There are always tons of possible reasons for things.

What doesn’t make sense is Mathews. When Cole struggled he was sent down. Meyers was sent down when he struggled. Loperfido seems to be on a yo-yo even thought he has outperformed Mathews at the plate. There is a ton to like about Mathews. He has excellent positional flexibility and is a plus defender at most of those positions. He has enormous power and speed potential that he has flashed consistently this season. He just simply does not make enough contact to stick as a big leaguer right now and the fact that they keep throwing him out there is a scandalously bad decision for a team in a pennant race.

A number of players have failed in their first taste of big league action and have come back and succeeded. So, this is not me giving up on Matthews. He is just not a big league hitter right now. He could be in 2027 or 2028, but he isn’t one right now. If the Astros do not fix this situation then they will not advance far in October even if they luck into a spot. A team in a tight race cannot afford to fritter away outs. They need to either stick Trammel out there full time or they need to make a trade to get someone that can at least approach median level performance.

Continue reading...