In The Lab: Trade Deadline Add Possibilities

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We continue our series on possible areas where the Astros could add at the deadline. As a reminder, I am not recommending any addition at this point. This is more devil’s advocate. The Astros have been playing better of late and the race in the AL West is tightening. So, there will be more pressure to try to make that one key addition to get the team over the top. The problem is that there is probably only room for one addition given their proximity to the tax threshold and depleted minor league farm system.

Last Friday, we looked at the starting pitcher market. However, more important than the market itself is the expressed need for additions in that area. We can’t put the cart before the horse. We have to first look at the current roster and establish a need. Certainly you want to get good players to add to your roster, but it is that much better if those good players can actually be in a position of need. The question for Dana Brown and the Astros is which of those positions is the most acute need.

Anyone that has watched the offense knows that it is improved overall based on what we saw in 2025. However, Brown kept talking about adding to outfield offense all season in addition to adding left handed bats in general. Obviously, he failed to do that in general. So, you could really make a compelling argument that an outfielder is the most pressing need.

AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BPO
LF	.199	.281	.367	.648	.610
CF	.231	.291	.348	.639	.580
RF	.239	.319	.380	.699	.695
Total	.224	.298	.365	.663	.628

These are all standard numbers except for bases per out. As we saw earlier in the year, the league average for bases per out is .663. That is an entire league average, so it actually is worse than it appears. That league average includes catchers, shortstops, and second basemen who typically bring that overall average. In particular, when you look at the corner outfield positions, first base, and third base the league average is closer to .700.

The league average slash line at all positions is .243/.320/.400. So, when we compare the overall outfield production across the board we notice that the average hitter is considerably better than all of the Astros outfielders. If you take Yordan Alvarez out of the equation it gets particularly anemic. When you remove Alvarez from the totals, this is the worst Astros outfield offensively in franchise history. That is particularly true when you compare them with the league average.

So, when we look at the landscape, there are a number of outfielders that spotrac.com have listed as being available in trade. Again, I’m not necessarily advocating any of these and I have no idea whether the Astros are interested or not. We will look at two sets of numbers. We will look at the current slash statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) and the Statcast estimates of where the player should be based on the level of contact (xAVG/xOBP/xSLG).

Jarren Durran​

AVG	OBP	SLG	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG
2026	.210	.269	.388	.229	.288	.390

This is what we would call a buy low candidate. Durran was long rumored to be coming to Houston for Isaac Paredes but the deal never quite worked out. I’d have to imagine that some reasonable version of the deal is still on the table. The upside is clear on him as he was a nine win player just a couple of years ago. A large part of that comes on the defensive end. He is a Gold Glove level defender in both center field and left field, so the Astros could continue to play Cam Smith in right field and have at least two Gold Glove level defenders there. The bad news is that he might not be an offensive upgrade.

Byron Buxton​

AVG	OBP	SLG	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG
2026	.273	.334	.588	.247	.308	.516

When you look at the Statcast numbers it feels like you are looking at Christian Walker. So, imagine adding a Walker level bat to a lineup that already features Alvarez and Walker. Of course, he is about the best asset the Twins have, so they will make you pay dearly for him. Assuming he can stay healthy he might be the best impact bat on the trade market. Like most of these guys, he is ready for free agency, so it would be a pure rental.

Bryan Reynolds​

AVG	OBP	SLG	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG
2026	.285	.402	.474	.265	.382	.457

I’m down with OBP (yeah you know me), I’m down with OBP (yeah you know me). I’ve been a Reynolds fan for awhile, but there are some issues that come with getting him. He is signed through 2030 with an option for 2031. Second, this is his best season in awhile, so you will tied down to a guy that will be in his mid thirties that is likely to decline. A bet on Reynolds is a bet on a guy you want to play well now for this season and will just live with the contract from here on out.

Oneil Cruz​

AVG	OBP	SLG	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG
2026	.264	.350	.472	.255	.341	.490

Spotrac lists him as a trade candidate. I am a little skeptical of that considering that he can’t become a free agent until 2029. Cruz came up as a shortstop and was converted to center field. It has been a troubling adjustment. He is sitting on -9 defensive runs saved as I write this. So, maybe you try him in left field if you acquire him. He adds 21 steals to these numbers and led the National League in stolen bases. A bet on Cruz is a bet on the awesome athleticism that is obviously present.

Taylor Ward​

AVG	OBP	SLG	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG
2026	.253	.393	.345	.257	.397	.381

The Orioles season is in the crapper. Ward hasn’t been exactly what the Orioles had hoped, but he hasn’t been bad. His .737 OPS would be considerably better than anything the Astros are putting out there and Statcast shows he might be somewhat unlucky. Camden Yards has become a difficult place to hit home runs, so maybe he would be luckier in Daikan Park. Like Buxton, he will be a free agent at the end of the season, so hopefully would be cheaper in terms of player capital.

Putting it all together​

The general idea would be to upgrade either center field or left field for the stretch drive. The Astros offense is generally average once you leave the warm embrace of March and April. So, you could make an argument that an upgrade in the outfield would be more meaningful than any other addition the Astros could make. Keep in mind that this is just the second article in a series. I’m not arguing for making any deal. It is just a glimpse into what might be possible if the Astros want to move in that direction.

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