I'm not dissing him. I like Smith. I liked him last year.
I'm simply saying NFL teams love second guessing themselves. For top 10 picks they like as much as a sure thing as they can get so it wouldn't surprise me if Smith didn't go top 10. Especially when there is already less tendency to take WR top 10.
And yes speed is overrated, but that doesn't mean many teams don't still rate it. As evidenced by us taking an under sized body catcher because he ran 4.31.
IMO because Smith is so light, teams are going to want to see his 40 time be real fast. Just like the other kid, if you're not big, they want to see other qualities to make up for it. NFL WR's get hit often and hard, so if they think you might be too small they want to see other qualities, a sub 4.4 40 he's a lock top 10, past that he still might go that high, or might not
WR is so hard to judge. Jeudy was good with a terrible QB, not great. Lamb was good until his QB got hurt. Jefferson was picked after all of them and was a stud. Claypool lasted well past and had a great year until Ben fell off a cliff, that kid is on a DK Metcalf type trajectory if they have a good QB next year. If Ben continues his dropoff, or they go with a young guy not ready he'll see a drop off
Mel Gray was a similar weight to Smith but he was 5'9" and that was in the 70's. Isaac Bruce wasn't that big but still 15 pounds bigger than Smith.
Smith is really good he accelerates out of cuts, no wasted steps, you just never know with a kid that size what happens when he starts getting hit by NFL players every week. I'm not saying he'll wimp out he played in the SEC, I'm saying you don't know if he'll be able to stay healthy at that size. Some guys never get hurt, some guys do, you just never know.
I read a story last week about former WR Roy Williams and they said he retired at 30 because "my body was breaking down." He said he started to notice it in his 20's, he got traded to the Cowboys and their offense was different they ran stick routes(sound familiar) and he said it works if you're the TE but for the outside guy you run 15 yards stop and come back if the timing isn't perfect you get drilled. He said I was a big WR but it doesn't matter these guys are hitting you over and over and at a certain point you start to think I'm coming back if the ball is late and it gets picked so be it, I'm tired of being hit because of the offense. Wasn't Tony Romo's fault that was our offense. Obviously nobody is going to plan to use Smith the way you use a guy like Roy Williams but that guy was 50 pounds or more bigger than Smith is and he retired at 30 and now runs a trucking company because of the physical abuse he took in football
I think I get more now why D Hop plays the way he does. At first I wondered he's always stepping out after catches but now I see why, he gets so many targets he gets hit hard 4-5 times a game. I also see why he skips practices at times during the week, rest the body.