Gambo: Dbacks have talked to Tampa Bay about a certain OF

[Ronin]

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[Ronin]

It doesn’t sound like a lot of traction…

 

[Raindog]

I mean a guy named "Arozarena" playing for Arizona is just too good not to happen, amirite?

 

[Ronin]

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[overseascardfan]

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I know he has name recognition but can you call Arozarena a "power" bat? His 23 HR's last year were a career high, Gurriel hit 24 HR last year. I think I would rather bring back Gurriel and use the prospects to trade for elite SP. I'd offer anyone of farm except Lawler & Jones for George Kirby & Logan Gilbert. SEA may give up 2 of their young core of SP but they'd re-stock their farm with 6 or 7 top prospects and they can spend their FA money on SP to replace Kirby and Gilbert.

I'd be cool with trading for Burnes but I'd offer fringe Top 10 prospect and a couple in the 11 - 20 range in our system. He ain't re-signing so you don't trade Top 5 guys for that.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I know he has name recognition but can you call Arozarena a "power" bat? His 23 HR's last year were a career high, Gurriel hit 24 HR last year. I think I would rather bring back Gurriel and use the prospects to trade for elite SP. I'd offer anyone of farm except Lawler & Jones for George Kirby & Logan Gilbert. SEA may give up 2 of their young core of SP but they'd re-stock their farm with 6 or 7 top prospects and they can spend their FA money on SP to replace Kirby and Gilbert.

I'd be cool with trading for Burnes but I'd offer fringe Top 10 prospect and a couple in the 11 - 20 range in our system. He ain't re-signing so you don't trade Top 5 guys for that.

You have to account for the parks. Arozarena hit 17 points higher outside of Tampa.

Meanwhile it's the exact opposite for Gurriel. Gurriel loses .115 off his slugging away from Chase.

Also, you have 3 years of team control with Arozarena where he is making under 10 million. You won't have that with Gurriel who is certainly going to be making more. Arozarena is 28 so just hitting his prime so you are getting 3 years of progression. Gurriel is 30 and this is likely his ceiling.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

This site explains it as well

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lourdes-gurriel-jr-666971?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Gurriel is an average MLB batter with parks taken out of it. If you look at his hit chart last year, look at where his doubles and home runs and that is why Chase is a great park for him. Others are a real challenge. His 89.7 exit velocity is a tick down from his younger age.

Here is Arozarena

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/randy-arozarena-668227?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

His batting run value and speed are both excellent at 88 and 84. That's nearly double Gurriel.

Arozarena Exit Velocity is in the 86 percentile while Gurriel is in the 58th percentile.

Barrell, hard hit, and walk are 85 percentile on Arozarena. Lourdes is average, good, and one of the worst walk % in the league at the 13th %.

Where Gurriel shines is defense over Arozarena. All of Arozarena's 3.5 WAR is in his bat and his speed.