The more I look at the 49ers the more I see lack of talent.
ARI
SEA
MIN
STL
ATL
HOU
IND
TEN
CHI
GB
JAC
SEA
ARI
PHI
DET
STL
Where are they going to get wins? They have two games against the Rams and Hawks. They have three non-division losing teams: Lions, Jags, Packers. Jags have restructured their offense (three new tackles, Torry Holt) and got their all-pro CB back. Packers have an amazing offense and rebuilding their defense. Lions are getting overlooked, they have brought in a bunch of good vets seemingly unnoticed. I'll write off the Lions for now, but I have my doubts about them beating the Packers and Jags. They play two fringe wildcard teams: Texans and Bears. Texans are just too much for the 49ers to handle and the Bears run-D will stonewall Gore. They play 6 playoff teams: Cardinals (twice), Vikes, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Titans. The chances of beating any of them are slim to none.
I see a couple scenarios. If they are as talentless as I think they are, I see 3-5 wins depending on the Seahawks. If they overacheive and beat some of the other losing teams, I see 6-7 wins. For them to be a playoff team they have to beat potential wildcard teams and playoff teams. I don't see it in them to beat the Texans, Bears, Colts, Cards (twice), Vikes, Titans, Falcons, and Eagles. The beatable teams are Bears, Vikes, Colts. The Vikes will beat the 49ers with their speed, look for AD to break off at least a long one and Bly to be scortched all day by Harvin. When it comes to the Colts, the Colts will have problem with established teams and not "next year" teams, I doubt the 49ers will be the Colts simply because of Peyton. That leaves the Bears, but the combo of Cutler-Hester with a punch of Forte will be too much.
7-9 and another season of "Next year they can break out!".