Championship Weekend Games 2024

Stout

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Some of us, and probably most of us, would have made the decision to kick FG’s in the Lions game yesterday. But, in today’s NFL, analytics have taken over. We all need to understand that if the Cardinals are ever in a similar situation that Campbell found himself in, that JG will no doubt also nix the FG attempt. Just something we need to come to grips with.
Then he will be crucified in turn, as is proper.
 

football karma

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on Campbell passing on two FGs-

i am curious how much the Lions inability to stop SF in the 2nd half played into that

as the HC, if you know that your D is unlikely to get two more stops: dont you have to go for it to both possess the ball more, and, score a TD?

Going for it was the right decision both times.
 

unseenaz

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I think the reason the Lions were even in the position they were in this season is because they’ve been aggressive all season. It’s kind of been their DNA all season, and maybe they aren’t in the NFC championship without it.

That being said… if I was a Lions fan I would have preferred to take guaranteed points when they are there with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
 

Stout

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on Campbell passing on two FGs-

i am curious how much the Lions inability to stop SF in the 2nd half played into that

as the HC, if you know that your D is unlikely to get two more stops: dont you have to go for it to both possess the ball more, and, score a TD?

Going for it was the right decision both times.
You go up 3 scores at that point in the game and it is a freaking mountain to climb for the opposing team to have a chance. You go for it and miss, and the opposing team can (and did) make it a one-score game fairly quickly. There is no world where he made the right decision. None.
 

BurqueCardFan

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You go up 3 scores at that point in the game and it is a freaking mountain to climb for the opposing team to have a chance. You go for it and miss, and the opposing team can (and did) make it a one-score game fairly quickly. There is no world where he made the right decision. None.
Agree. Analytics have turned the game to crap. All these head coaches hide behind these charts and statistics, instead of playing fundamental football. That way, if something doesn't work out they can just say "hey, the analytics said to go for it", it just didn't work out.
All these two point conversions, going for it on 4th. These coaches think they are playing a game of Madden, not real football.
 

football karma

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There is no world where he made the right decision. None.
the world where Josh Reynolds catches the football, and they end up scoring a TD is one of those worlds

40-49, Badgely (last three years) is 82%
50+ 66%

so its not like either of those FGs were automatic points either
 

kerouac9

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Agree. Analytics have turned the game to crap. All these head coaches hide behind these charts and statistics, instead of playing fundamental football. That way, if something doesn't work out they can just say "hey, the analytics said to go for it", it just didn't work out.
All these two point conversions, going for it on 4th. These coaches think they are playing a game of Madden, not real football.
The thing about analytics though is that the tables will rebalance with more failures. It's possible (maybe even likely) that the stats were tilted because sample sizes were small and the attempts were made in mainly high-probability situations.

The more teams fail to achieve first downs or touchdowns on fourth, the more likely it is they'll stop doing it. The median team converted 50% of their fourth down attempts in 2023 and tried 25.5 times. In 2020 (chosen to just go back a few years to when the trend maybe wasn't so prevalent) the median team converted 57% of their attempts (!!!) and tried 18.5 times over the season.
 

tennis-player

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You have to also consider that Campbell has very little confidence in the kicker to make 46 and 48 yard field goals. Michael Bagley was just signed off the practice squad in December, and is 13 of 24 in his career from 45-50 yards.

Bagley was not asked to kick more that 41 yards in the last four regular season games. San Francisco's kicker missed a 48 yarder.
 
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Brian in Mesa

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Agree. Analytics have turned the game to crap. All these head coaches hide behind these charts and statistics, instead of playing fundamental football. That way, if something doesn't work out they can just say "hey, the analytics said to go for it", it just didn't work out.
All these two point conversions, going for it on 4th. These coaches think they are playing a game of Madden, not real football.
Exactly. The Lions should have been playing a home game versus the Niners except Dan Campbell went for 2 versus the Cowboys in the next to last game of the season. They got it the first time, then a very late penalty nullified the play, so they trailed 19-20 again. Just kick a PAT and the game is tied and going into OT, but instead he went for 2 a second time and they did not get it - but there was a penalty on the Cowboys. How about kicking the PAT now? Nope. He went for it a third time and they did not get it and they lost.

All they had to do was kick a PAT and stay alive in the game. Decent chance they could still win the game in overtime. They'd have finished with a 13-4 record and had home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

I thought it was lunacy at the time to go for 2 with home field on the line. But then to end up going for 2 on 3 consecutive plays? Made zero sense at all.
 

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on a lighter note-- and in tune with my belief that Purdy seems to make 2-4 throws every game that *could* end in disaster, *should* end in an incompletion, but somehow end up being a completion:

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
 

DVontel

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I think the reason the Lions were even in the position they were in this season is because they’ve been aggressive all season. It’s kind of been their DNA all season, and maybe they aren’t in the NFC championship without it.

That being said… if I was a Lions fan I would have preferred to take guaranteed points when they are there with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
They weren’t guaranteed, though. Pretty sure their kicker has struggled after 40+ yards all season.
 

Stout

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the world where Josh Reynolds catches the football, and they end up scoring a TD is one of those worlds

40-49, Badgely (last three years) is 82%
50+ 66%

so its not like either of those FGs were automatic points either
You're going to stubbornly defend the decision; I'm not going to be swayed. The last thing I'll say to you is what someone on the radio said today (can't remember which pundit): Those are the right risks to take EARLY in the game, not in crunch time like that.
 

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You're going to stubbornly defend the decision; I'm not going to be swayed. The last thing I'll say to you is what someone on the radio said today (can't remember which pundit): Those are the right risks to take EARLY in the game, not in crunch time like that.
Hard to argue that point.
 

Mulli

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You're going to stubbornly defend the decision; I'm not going to be swayed. The last thing I'll say to you is what someone on the radio said today (can't remember which pundit): Those are the right risks to take EARLY in the game, not in crunch time like that.
Is that a "good" pundit? Or someone is no longer employed because they are a dope? :)
 

oaken1

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I fully admit to being glad that the Cardinals are so bad so I wouldn't have to stress out about "meaningful" games.
Get to just sit back and absorb the schadenfreude as people suffer from their teams playoff mistakes.

And proudly state, "holy crap. We have had some bad coaches over the years and none of them have EVER screwed up like that in the playoffs" ....some will argue semantics. But the statement remains true.
 

Mulli

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Get to just sit back and absorb the schadenfreude as people suffer from their teams playoff mistakes.

And proudly state, "holy crap. We have had some bad coaches over the years and none of them have EVER screwed up like that in the playoffs" ....some will argue semantics. But the statement remains true.
Small sample size. :)
 
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