Hmmm... going to disagree with the bolded part. I think you need a (circa 2018 or 2019) Chandler Jones or Hassan Redick-type to put a little fear into opposing offenses, generate some strip sack turnovers, and to reliably get a QB off his spot. But, I'm willing listen to alternate points of view.
Also when you say elite players have to be a surprise do you mean that... well what do you mean exactly K9?
I think you maybe need someone who can get 10+ sacks but not someone who can get 15+? The Chiefs won the Super Bowl with DT Chris Jones getting 15.5 sacks and no one else getting more than six.
The Bengals had the sixth-ranked scoring defense in 2022 and no player on that defense had more than eight sacks.
The 2022 Bills went 13-3 and no edge rusher had more than eight sacks (though Von Miller had eight in 13 games and probably would have gotten there barring injury).
I'd rather have a rotation of five guys who can throw different looks at the QB, play 30% or so of the snaps, make $5 million a year or less, and get eight sacks than one guy who gets 17 but puts you over a barrel at contract time or if he gets nicked up.
I know that San Fran had 18.5 sacks from Bosa last year, and Reddick had 16 with Philly, but I don't feel like there's a ton of correlation between having an elite edge rusher and getting where you want to in the postseason.
As to the second part, I'm getting increasingly itchy when people post "We'll just draft a #1 WR," and assume that's going to happen and it's easy to do.
Jaxon Smith-Ngiba (sp) just scored his first career TD last week.
The best WR in the NFL was selected with the 22nd pick in the first round (Justin Jefferson) -- the fifth player picked at his position.
Arguably the second-best WR in the NFL was selected in the third round (69th overall -- nice) in Cooper Kupp.
I'm pretty conservative about this stuff, and I think that you plan to draft for a guy's 80th percentile outcome -- what is he most likely to become. Keim made a mistake because he always drafted prospects in the first few rounds based on their 95th-percentile outcome -- how good could they be if they maxed out their potential?
You totally need a stud EDGE that can change the game in several ways - its one of the premier positions in the NFL.
We have mediocre guys.
Washington has two young Edge players that will be free agents next year (Sweat and Chase Young)...I doubt they can keep both with what they are already paying DL (Payne and Allen).
Sweat is more consistent but Young has elite potential (couldn't stay healthy but looks great this year).
Danielle Hunter from the Vikings will be a FA
Same with Josh Allen (Jags)
All of this is presuming Kyler is our franchise QB.
If not, we draft the next Chandler Jones.
I mean, where have those Edge players taken their teams? Doesn't this prove my point?