Aytons rookie season

[Proximo]

The only problem is that Ayton didn't improve one bit over the course of the season. He is still the same player he was to begin the season.

I put that more on Igor than on Ayton.

BS. He absolutely improved. His defense, and his offensive game.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

But Trae Young's game isn't built around being able to have his way with others because he's bigger, stronger, and quicker than everyone who guards him. Comparing a PG's physical challenges and adjustments to that of a C's is night and day. Ayton's game is good a bit further from the basket but he was also able to go inside whenever he wanted prior to making it to this level, that's no longer something he can do and it's taken some time for him to get used to that.

The reason I mentioned Boban specifically is I remember that first matchup with the Clippers and Ayton looked shell shocked just seeing Boban enter the game. It was clear by his facial expressions that he'd never faced anyone like him and he even elaborated on that in the postgame. There were other matchups similar like when Jokic torched him in the 2nd or 3rd game of the year but since that was so early in the season I didn't hold that against Ayton because he's 2-3 games into being a pro at that point. Boban was a little different.

Different challenges but if you don’t think Trae had equally daunting physical challenges (quicker, stronger defenders, bigger more athletic big men waiting in the paint) you’re being obtuse just to try to win a point.

 

[Hoop Head]

Different challenges but if you don’t think Trae had equally daunting physical challenges (quicker, stronger defenders, bigger more athletic big men waiting in the paint) you’re being obtuse just to try to win a point.

I'm not trying to win anything. Honestly I'm wondering why you keep coming keep back to this like I brought up some point of view that is unique and wasn't mentioned by others at various points throughout the year. Ayton had a learning curve coming into this league because he was not used to facing competition that not only was as big or bigger than him but also just as skilled, or even more skilled. You can look at his draft class and see that. Only 3 7 footers played in the NCAA last year that were selected, Ayton, Bamba, and Thomas Welsh. Welsh was selected #59 by Denver and was a senior from UCLA. He played in 11 games this year for Denver, averaging 3.3 minutes and 1.4 ppg to go with 0.4 rebounds. Ayton's size and skill is part of what made him such a highly sought after prospect also, because kids like that don't come around every year. Especially not that can move like Ayton can.

I really don't even know what's being debated though. I thought we were all talking about Ayton's rookie year and how we viewed it and what to expect from him going forward. I didn't realize this was a debate one could win or lose. Ayton had the deer in headlights look a few times when he faced off with certain opponents and even spoke of that a good bit. He's a rookie, or was a rookie, and that's to be expected. I'm not holding that against it, but it happened. I believe he'll be much better equipped to handle that next year now that he knows what the daily grind in the NBA is like and how unlike his NCAA or AAU days, he'll be faced off with someone close to his size or bigger every night. Physically, he won't really have a night off like he may have in the past.

 

[Cheesebeef]

BS. He absolutely improved. His defense, and his offensive game.

outside two games where he played great D on the perimeter versus LeBron and Giannis (and let's remember, people ALWAYS thought he was a more solid perimeter defender than down low), both my eye test and the stat test show his game barely moved throughout the season.

In fact, his stats in the first 3 months of his rookie season were BETTER than the last 3 months of it... in literally EVERY category outside blocks where he improved by .2 blocks per game.

Go look at the splits... they tell the same story my eyeballs did this season... that the Ayton we saw step on the floor on opening night was the same Ayton who stepped off the floor a couple games ago.

Stats from Oct-Dec, he averaged 17 ppg, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block on 60% shooting from the field and around 77% from the FT.

Stats from January-March, he averaged 15.5 ppg, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, on 56% shooting and 72% from the FT line.

Literally, he went down in EVERY STAT across the board. We didn't see him figure out how to establish better position down low. Didn't see marked improvement rolling to the bucket.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5958/splits

What we saw was pretty much the same guy who walked on the floor against the Mavs on opening night and blame falls on both him and Igor for not moving forward all that much this season.

This guy is UBER talented to be able to step on the floor and put those numbers up. I just don't know if he's got the self-motivation to get the best out of that talent, nor do I know if we've got the coach to kick the snot out of him until he does if he can't do it himself.

 

[sunsfan88]

BS. He absolutely improved. His defense, and his offensive game.

His defense improved for a short stretch (around that time we had the wins over the flashy teams) before going back to being abysmal.

I’m sort of glad though because it showed that he’s capable of it.

Now it’s just a matter of him staying motivated to actually do it every game rather than picking and choosing.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm not trying to win anything. Honestly I'm wondering why you keep coming keep back to this like I brought up some point of view that is unique and wasn't mentioned by others at various points throughout the year. Ayton had a learning curve coming into this league because he was not used to facing competition that not only was as big or bigger than him but also just as skilled, or even more skilled. You can look at his draft class and see that. Only 3 7 footers played in the NCAA last year that were selected, Ayton, Bamba, and Thomas Welsh. Welsh was selected #59 by Denver and was a senior from UCLA. He played in 11 games this year for Denver, averaging 3.3 minutes and 1.4 ppg to go with 0.4 rebounds. Ayton's size and skill is part of what made him such a highly sought after prospect also, because kids like that don't come around every year. Especially not that can move like Ayton can.

I really don't even know what's being debated though. I thought we were all talking about Ayton's rookie year and how we viewed it and what to expect from him going forward. I didn't realize this was a debate one could win or lose. Ayton had the deer in headlights look a few times when he faced off with certain opponents and even spoke of that a good bit. He's a rookie, or was a rookie, and that's to be expected. I'm not holding that against it, but it happened. I believe he'll be much better equipped to handle that next year now that he knows what the daily grind in the NBA is like and how unlike his NCAA or AAU days, he'll be faced off with someone close to his size or bigger every night. Physically, he won't really have a night off like he may have in the past.

Sorry sometimes when posters are finding origins of things it feels like making excuses for Ayton. You are of course correct in your comments. He’s having to get used to the league. Same as every rookie.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

outside two games where he played great D on the perimeter versus LeBron and Giannis (and let's remember, people ALWAYS thought he was a more solid perimeter defender than down low), both my eye test and the stat test show his game barely moved throughout the season.

In fact, his stats in the first 3 months of his rookie season were BETTER than the last 3 months of it... in literally EVERY category outside blocks where he improved by .2 blocks per game.

Go look at the splits... they tell the same story my eyeballs did this season... that the Ayton we saw step on the floor on opening night was the same Ayton who stepped off the floor a couple games ago.

Stats from Oct-Dec, he averaged 17 ppg, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block on 60% shooting from the field and around 77% from the FT.

Stats from January-March, he averaged 15.5 ppg, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, on 56% shooting and 72% from the FT line.

Literally, he went down in EVERY STAT across the board. We didn't see him figure out how to establish better position down low. Didn't see marked improvement rolling to the bucket.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5958/splits

What we saw was pretty much the same guy who walked on the floor against the Mavs on opening night and blame falls on both him and Igor for not moving forward all that much this season.

This guy is UBER talented to be able to step on the floor and put those numbers up. I just don't know if he's got the self-motivation to get the best out of that talent, nor do I know if we've got the coach to kick the snot out of him until he does if he can't do it himself.

I know I didn’t think I was seeing growth, hence the majority of my frustration throughout the year. Seeing the cold hard facts of the stats confirms I wasn’t crazy. I attribute some of the decline to a long season, but that’s still a disturbing trend. And I suspect it’s not the norm for the best rookies.

 

[Finito]

I’m very happy with his rookie year. Finished with 16.3 points and 10.3 rebounds. One of the best rookie seasons for a big man.

He had his ups and downs and that’s to be expected. Yeah Jokic dominated him but his career night 33/14 came against Jokic and Denver. Bobon was brought up anyone wanna see how Ayton did against him the second time around? Dominated him.

Won some lost some.

Also have to remember we run pretty much no plays for him. A lot of hero ball going on with this team this year. No real PG to make things easy on him and Booker very flawed roster

It looks like a really good draft class overall

 

[GatorAZ]

It seemed like we got dominated by every opposing big man last year whether they were a household name or journeyman type big. Did that happen last year as well? I can’t recall...

 

[Finito]

It seemed like we got dominated by every opposing big man last year whether they were a household name or journeyman type big. Did that happen last year as well? I can’t recall...

We’re 19-16 and had record setting losing streaks we got dominated by everyone.

And yes it happened last year and the year before and the year before that

 

[SirStefan32]

I am using KAT's rookie numbers as the baseline for Ayton. KAT averaged two more points per game in a minute or two more playing time, and two more field goal attempts per game. KAT's advantage in scoring and Ayton's in FG% is due to KAT shooting some threes. Outside of that, their rookie seasons are pretty much identical.

Unrealistic expectations aside, Ayton had himself a hell of a season. He needs to continue to work on his team defensive awareness, getting the low post position, and making his moves (scoring quickly) from that low-post position. I am guessing we will see 24 and 12 from him next year.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I am using KAT's rookie numbers as the baseline for Ayton. KAT averaged two more points per game in a minute or two more playing time, and two more field goal attempts per game. KAT's advantage in scoring and Ayton's in FG% is due to KAT shooting some threes. Outside of that, their rookie seasons are pretty much identical.

Unrealistic expectations aside, Ayton had himself a hell of a season. He needs to continue to work on his team defensive awareness, getting the low post position, and making his moves (scoring quickly) from that low-post position. I am guessing we will see 24 and 12 from him next year.

Stef, you keep trotting out how unrealistic people's expectations were, but do you remember who really had a pretty unrealistic expectation? Let me refresh your memory if you forgot:

"My expectations are low. Traditionally, big men take a while to figure it out. I think he will struggle with foul trouble and not be able to play more than 20-24 minutes per game. 12 and 7, 13 and 8 is what I think he'll average, but I don't really care about his numbers. I want to see him play better defense, not commit stupid fouls, play within the system, not force things, continue to improve his passing, learn how to post up, etc. Points and rebounds will come."

"Ayton will limit himself to 18-20 minutes with foul trouble, unless he pulls a KAT and doesn't even pretend to be trying to play defense. He doesn't play defense with his feet, he reaches, is routinely late on rotations. All this is normal for a kid his age and size. I swear some of you expect a 25 year-old David Robinson to show up instead of a rookie Ayton. Suns didn't draft Ayton for what he will do in his rookie year."

https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/expectations-for-aytons-rookie-year.275710/page-3

You know who's unrealistic expectations those were above? Yours.

See... I think you've been pleasantly surprised by Ayton's season because your expectations were so low. The expectations game can get played both ways and the truth is, yours was pretty off base. You didn't have a good handle on who Ayton was and how could you after saying you only watched a handful of games of him in college (your words)? Those of us who did, recognized how skilled his offensive game was already and that rebounding usually translates to the NBA.

Did he initially come out of the gate a little stronger or a little weaker than some of us expected? Sure, but a lot of us saw the natural gifts he had so when he came out 16 and 11'ing out of the gate, it wasn't THAT big of a shock to us. But of course it would be to someone who didn't think he would even be able to stay on the court.

What was surprising to a lot of us though was how little he seemed to progress through the season and actually started to regress toward the end of it. Expected a rookie to get better as the season goes on isn't unrealistic and that's where legitimate frustration came to play. The Ayton we saw at the end of the year was almost exactly the same Ayton as we saw at the beginning of the year. The eyeball test is backed up by every stat which peaked in December and then gradually slipped a little until they put him on the shelf.

As for unrealistic expectations... I'll go on record and say I think you keep riding that train with a leap to 24/12 next season. Unless we get a new coaching staff or Igor figures out a way to adjust his offense to highlight him more/Ayton finds a fire inside of him we currently haven't seen on a regular basis, I'd be surprised to see that much of an explosion offensively. I think a reasonable jump to 20/11 is much more likely, but happy to be proven wrong there.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm not seeing much difference between 24/12 and 20/11. IMO, the key will be the addition of a point guard and how the Suns run their offense next season.

I think 24/12 is possible. The Suns didn't have much point guard production this season. Tyler Johnson was the best the Suns had at the position and he only played in 13 games.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm not seeing much difference between 24/12 and 20/11. IMO, the key will be the addition of a point guard and how the Suns run their offense next season.

I think 24/12 is possible. The Suns didn't have much point guard production this season. Tyler Johnson was the best the Suns had at the position and he only played in 13 games.

well, I think there's a solid amount of difference as far as scoring ability between a guy who scores 20 ppg and 24 ppg but even if you argued different, we're not looking at those two numbers in a vacuum.

we're talking about going from 16 ppg (with very little sign of upward trajectory toward the end of the season) to 24 ppg. That's a pretty big jump, IMO. Now, again, if we saw Ayton trending upwards towards season end, the way other big guys like Towns, Boogie and Davis did down the stretch of their rookie year, then maybe I could see that big of a leap. But that didn't happen. Anton's progress has been pretty stagnant all seasons... my biggest criticism of both he and Igor.

Hope to be proven wrong there, but time will tell...

 

[SirStefan32]

Stef, you keep trotting out how unrealistic people's expectations were, but do you remember who really had a pretty unrealistic expectation? Let me refresh your memory if you forgot:

"My expectations are low. Traditionally, big men take a while to figure it out. I think he will struggle with foul trouble and not be able to play more than 20-24 minutes per game. 12 and 7, 13 and 8 is what I think he'll average, but I don't really care about his numbers. I want to see him play better defense, not commit stupid fouls, play within the system, not force things, continue to improve his passing, learn how to post up, etc. Points and rebounds will come."

"Ayton will limit himself to 18-20 minutes with foul trouble, unless he pulls a KAT and doesn't even pretend to be trying to play defense. He doesn't play defense with his feet, he reaches, is routinely late on rotations. All this is normal for a kid his age and size. I swear some of you expect a 25 year-old David Robinson to show up instead of a rookie Ayton. Suns didn't draft Ayton for what he will do in his rookie year."

https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/expectations-for-aytons-rookie-year.275710/page-3

You know who's unrealistic expectations those were above? Yours.

See... I think you've been pleasantly surprised by Ayton's season because your expectations were so low. The expectations game can get played both ways and the truth is, yours was pretty off base. You didn't have a good handle on who Ayton was and how could you after saying you only watched a handful of games of him in college (your words)? Those of us who did, recognized how skilled his offensive game was already and that rebounding usually translates to the NBA.

Did he initially come out of the gate a little stronger or a little weaker than some of us expected? Sure, but a lot of us saw the natural gifts he had so when he came out 16 and 11'ing out of the gate, it wasn't THAT big of a shock to us. But of course it would be to someone who didn't think he would even be able to stay on the court.

What was surprising to a lot of us though was how little he seemed to progress through the season and actually started to regress toward the end of it. Expected a rookie to get better as the season goes on isn't unrealistic and that's where legitimate frustration came to play. The Ayton we saw at the end of the year was almost exactly the same Ayton as we saw at the beginning of the year. The eyeball test is backed up by every stat which peaked in December and then gradually slipped a little until they put him on the shelf.

As for unrealistic expectations... I'll go on record and say I think you keep riding that train with a leap to 24/12 next season. Unless we get a new coaching staff or Igor figures out a way to adjust his offense to highlight him more/Ayton finds a fire inside of him we currently haven't seen on a regular basis, I'd be surprised to see that much of an explosion offensively. I think a reasonable jump to 20/11 is much more likely, but happy to be proven wrong there.

I don't understand what point you are trying to make. I have already said he exceeded my expectations. His basketball IQ is much higher than I expected, his jumper is better than I expected, his post turn-around jumpers are better than I expected. His defensive awareness was non-existent at the start of the season, and it got significantly better.

I have no problem saying I was wrong. We are all wrong more often than we are right. I just don't have any issues admitting when I was wrong. If your point is that I was wrong, well done- I admit it in this case, much like I do it all the time. Being right about how well a rookie center is going to play is not unusual because it is an extremely difficult thing to predict. Since you are so fond of spending time looking at my old posts, perhaps you can tell me how many times I've said that Ayton exceeded my expectations. I am positive I've flat-out said it a few times.

I maintain that my expectation were perfectly reasonable for a player like Ayton. People who thought he was going to be a David Robinson type in his rookie year were way off base. Historically, it was not even remotely possible. 19 or 20 year-old kids of that size are usually not very good and take years to develop. What you want from Ayton is something nobody can deliver at that age and size. It just doesn't work that way. My expectations were based on historical data. Ayton exceeded them. As for next year, I am not sure why you want to argue about 24 and 12 vs. 20 and 11? I said that I was guessing we'll see 24 and 11, based on KAT comparison since their rookie stats were so similar. If it makes you feel better and smarter, then sure, let's go with 20 and 11. I'll be thrilled with that too. Again- reasonable expectations.

Sorry if I missed the point of your post. I read it over and over and wasn't able to find the point. My brain is fried, so I can see how I could miss something.

 

[SirStefan32]

well, I think there's a solid amount of difference as far as scoring ability between a guy who scores 20 ppg and 24 ppg but even if you argued different, we're not looking at those two numbers in a vacuum.

we're talking about going from 16 ppg (with very little sign of upward trajectory toward the end of the season) to 24 ppg. That's a pretty big jump, IMO. Now, again, if we saw Ayton trending upwards towards season end, the way other big guys like Towns, Boogie and Davis did down the stretch of their rookie year, then maybe I could see that big of a leap. But that didn't happen. Anton's progress has been pretty stagnant all seasons... my biggest criticism of both he and Igor.

Hope to be proven wrong there, but time will tell...

KAT jumped from 18 to 25, Davis went from 13 to almost 21. That's what I am using to set my expectations. "upward trending" is irrelevant, in my opinion. There are way too many variables there. There is no way that someone as advanced and as smart as Ayton is not going to get significantly better. Ayton can flat-out play already. Considering his age and size, he is an outstanding player. Good players of similar age and size get significantly better.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I am using KAT's rookie numbers as the baseline for Ayton. KAT averaged two more points per game in a minute or two more playing time, and two more field goal attempts per game. KAT's advantage in scoring and Ayton's in FG% is due to KAT shooting some threes. Outside of that, their rookie seasons are pretty much identical.

Unrealistic expectations aside, Ayton had himself a hell of a season. He needs to continue to work on his team defensive awareness, getting the low post position, and making his moves (scoring quickly) from that low-post position. I am guessing we will see 24 and 12 from him next year.

Wow. From your mouth to gods ears hopefully you’re prescient.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm not seeing much difference between 24/12 and 20/11. IMO, the key will be the addition of a point guard and how the Suns run their offense next season.

I think 24/12 is possible. The Suns didn't have much point guard production this season. Tyler Johnson was the best the Suns had at the position and he only played in 13 games.

4 points per game is an enormous jump. It’s the difference between booker averaging 26 and 30 points per game this season. Enormous jump. And that wouldn’t even be the actual jump - that would be going from 15 to 24. That’s a jump of 9 points per game. You don’t think that’s much different from a jump of 5 points a game? Cmon man.

And increasing rebounding even by a single rebound per game is a big step. By two per game? It’s the difference between a 10% increase to a 20% increase in production.

Those are BIG differences.

 

[Chaplin]

4 points per game is an enormous jump. It’s the difference between booker averaging 26 and 30 points per game this season. Enormous jump. And that wouldn’t even be the actual jump - that would be going from 15 to 24. That’s a jump of 9 points per game. You don’t think that’s much different from a jump of 5 points a game? Cmon man.

And increasing rebounding even by a single rebound per game is a big step. By two per game? It’s the difference between a 10% increase to a 20% increase in production.

Those are BIG differences.

While you’re right about the size of the jump, I disagree that it’s “like” Booker going from 26 to 30. 30ppg is almost impossible for 95% of NBA players. That percentage lowers pretty significantly when you start talking about 25ppg and even more when you talk about 20ppg.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

While you’re right about the size of the jump, I disagree that it’s “like” Booker going from 26 to 30. 30ppg is almost impossible for 95% of NBA players. That percentage lowers pretty significantly when you start talking about 25ppg and even more when you talk about 20ppg.

Maybe that overreached. See your point. At the higher levels it’s more difficult. I was too focused on what 4 points represents. That said, those 4 points are just not the same. I submit the difference of a player scoring 24-20 or 20-16 or 16-12 or 12-8 is significant.

 

[Chaplin]

Maybe that overreached. See your point. At the higher levels it’s more difficult. I was too focused on what 4 points represents. That said, those 4 points are just not the same. I submit the difference of a player scoring 24-20 or 20-16 or 16-12 or 12-8 is significant.

I think we agree there. I just had a reaction to it being like 26-30.

That’s like going from mvp of a team to mvp of the league.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think we agree there. I just had a reaction to it being like 26-30.

That’s like going from mvp of a team to mvp of the league.

Yeah true.

 

[Hoop Head]

A 4 point increase from 20 to 24 is almost like the difference between Warren and Booker. One is a nice scorer and the other is a potential all-star. Averaging 20 ppg is nice but it won't get you accolades on it's own, averaging 24 or more a game will get you talked about around the league as a potential franchise talent. Last year TJ averaged 19.6 while Booker averaged 24.9. So there is a little more than a 4 point difference there but I think that should help put it in perspective because most everyone knows how TJ is talked about compared to Booker. Booker got a max deal and TJ didn't even get half of what Booker is annually. 20 PPG is a 2nd option, a good 2nd option but a 2nd option none the less. To average 24 PPG you'd basically need to be the #1 option.

 

[Cheesebeef]

A 4 point increase from 20 to 24 is almost like the difference between Warren and Booker. One is a nice scorer and the other is a potential all-star. Averaging 20 ppg is nice but it won't get you accolades on it's own, averaging 24 or more a game will get you talked about around the league as a potential franchise talent. Last year TJ averaged 19.6 while Booker averaged 24.9. So there is a little more than a 4 point difference there but I think that should help put it in perspective because most everyone knows how TJ is talked about compared to Booker. Booker got a max deal and TJ didn't even get half of what Booker is annually. 20 PPG is a 2nd option, a good 2nd option but a 2nd option none the less. To average 24 PPG you'd basically need to be the #1 option.

agreed. Warren is specifically the guy I was thinking of when someone brought up that 20-24 ppg isn't all that different.

the two things I really want to see go up next year with Ayton are FTA and assists. Again, early in the season, Ayton started averaging 2.5 assists per game and is a solid passer for a young big man. But again, as the season went on, the ball seemed to be in his hands less and that lessened his ability to make plays for others which he at least had a shred of success doing closer to the beginning of the season.

 

[Phrazbit]

I said a while ago, I think KAT is Ayton's floor. This season only entrenched that view further. I think Ayton showed more defensive potential and he put up comparable offensive stats without a facilitator even remotely comparable to Rubio and without a fellow big man even close to the paltry play that Dieng provided in Towns first season.

Ayton's floor is a stat stuffing, multi year all-star who provides possibly empty stats: AKA, Towns. I think with coaching and teammates who are better at involving him, he will blast through that floor.