Avast!: Mariners at Pirates Series Preview

[ASFN Admin]

You must be registered for see images

DENVER, COLORADO - JUNE 21: Endy Rodriguez #13 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrates his fourth inning two-run home run against the Colorado Rockies with Bryan Reynolds #10 in a game at Coors Field on June 21, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Count me shocked that the Mariners were able to win one of their games against that trio of lefty starters the Red Sox rolled out last weekend. That win on Sunday wrapped up a 3-3 homestand and pushed the team another game ahead of their division rivals. Now the team embarks on a midwest road trip through Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Pirates Starter	Mariners Win%	Pirates Win%
Game 1	Tuesday, June 23 | 3:40 pm	RHP George Kirby	RHP Mitch Keller	51.6%	48.4%
Game 2	Wednesday, June 24 | 3:40 pm	RHP Bryan Woo	RHP Braxton Ashcraft	49.1%	50.9%
Game 3	Thursday, June 25 | 9:35 am	RHP Bryce Miller	RHP Bubba Chandler	49.7%	50.3%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Overview	Mariners	Pirates	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	102 (7th in AL)	107 (3rd in NL)	Pirates
Fielding (FRV)	-20 (14th)	-15 (15th)	Pirates
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	89 (3rd)	87 (2nd)	Pirates
Bullpen (FIP-)	90 (2nd)	103 (10th)	Mariners

With a ton of young talent matriculating into the big leagues and a starting rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, the Pirates looked poised to break out of their long rebuilding cycle this year. They actually spent money on a few free agents in the offseason and traded for some more talent to bolster the lineup. They were rewarded with a quick start to the season, running a 16-11 record through April 25. They’ve fallen back towards .500 since then, though they’re still in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
Spencer Horwitz	1B	L	288	13.2%	13.5%	0.179	137
Brandon Lowe	2B	L	317	25.6%	10.4%	0.265	126
Bryan Reynolds	LF	R	335	21.2%	14.6%	0.197	145
Ryan O’Hearn	RF	L	257	22.6%	7.8%	0.176	115
Nick Gonzales	3B	R	292	17.8%	5.5%	0.081	100
Endy Rodriguez	C	S	85	23.5%	18.8%	0.176	133
Marcell Ozuna	DH	R	217	29.0%	8.8%	0.117	64
Jake Mangum	CF	S	176	16.5%	5.7%	0.063	101
Jared Triolo	SS	R	152	25.0%	7.9%	0.044	67

The Pirates signed Ryan O’Hearn to the largest free agent contract for a position player in franchise history this offseason. That’s pretty incredible from an organizational standpoint and that it ended up being O’Hearn who set that record. To his credit, O’Hearn has been a solid first baseman and corner outfielder for the past three years and he’s been just as good for the Pirates this season, rocking a 115 wRC+. They also traded for Brandon Lowe and that has worked out wonderfully; he’s leading the team in home runs with a 126 wRC+. Among the holdovers from last year, Bryan Reynolds has bounced back from a dismal season in 2025 to lead the team with a 145 wRC+. Unfortunately for the Pirates, young phenom Konnor Griffin has been sidelined with a forearm injury for the past month.

Probable Pitchers​

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

You must be registered for see images attach

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Mitch Keller	82.1	18.4%	8.8%	8.6%	40.6%	5.25	3.98
George Kirby	90	21.1%	5.6%	10.1%	50.4%	4.10	3.42

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	39.3%	38.5%	93.4	93	78	98	0.380
Sinker	35.2%	12.8%	92.3	88	123	60	0.429
Cutter	4.1%	10.8%	89.9	83	84	135	0.246
Changeup	1.9%	15.2%	88.9	81	85	63	0.348
Curveball	3.3%	13.5%	78.2	89	110	72	0.295
Slider	16.20%	9.10%	87.5	103	63	102	0.319
Sweeper	37.40%	11.50%	82.2	103	66	124	0.277

Mitch Keller has been a solid, if uninspiring mid-rotation starter for the last five years. He’s also been incredibly consistent in that time; his FIP hasn’t risen above 4.08 and hasn’t fallen below 3.80. Despite that consistency, his peripherals look the worst they’ve been since 2021; his strikeout rate has fallen to 18.4% and his walk rate has jumped up to 8.8%. Only some good home run luck has allowed him to keep his FIP inside that range mentioned above. He’s always been a tinkerer, and this year, he’s reintroduced a cutter to his repertoire. The real issue is that his other two fastballs have been crushed by opposing batters and the rest of his secondary pitches haven’t been able to make up the difference.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Braxton Ashcraft	90.2	26.3%	6.0%	9.3%	46.3%	3.18	3.04
Bryan Woo	89	24.9%	4.5%	7.8%	35.8%	3.94	3.08

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	26.1%	35.9%	97.1	92	84	99	0.307
Sinker	23.7%	8.9%	96.8	102	140	100	0.323
Splitter	0.0%	8.7%	91.9	87
Curveball	20.3%	28.4%	85.0	131	126	93	0.207
Slider	30.0%	18.1%	92.0	100	102	121	0.258

Between Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin, and a host of other top prospects on the Pirates roster, it’s been easy to overlook Braxton Ashcraft. He was a top prospect in his own right and had a strong debut season last year, compiling a 2.71 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 18 relief appearances and eight starts. The Pirates were pretty cautious with his workload last year but have given him a full-time role in the starting rotation this year and he’s run with the opportunity. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls that more than make up for the lack of a strong fastball. Nearly half of his pitch mix is made up of those breaking balls, and their quality is such that he doesn’t really need an offspeed pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay. He can just spin a curveball or bury a slider to a lefty and generate enough swing and miss to thrive.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Bubba Chandler	74	21.1%	13.1%	9.4%	34.3%	4.62	4.73
Bryce Miller	40	30.5%	3.5%	12.5%	40.7%	1.58	2.95

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	51.0%	54.3%	98.4	104	99	109	0.345
Sinker	12.2%	3.6%	97.9	100	0	0
Changeup	9.8%	26.8%	91.8	93	84	111	0.277
Curveball	3.0%	4.1%	85.6	114	0	0
Slider	24.0%	11.3%	89.7	113	112	112	0.298
Sweeper	11.7%	3.9%	87.7	113	0	0

Among the non-Skenes pitching prospects in Pittsburgh’s pipeline, Bubba Chandler had the most hype. And while Ashcraft is having the type of season we expected from Chandler, Chandler probably has the higher ceiling once he fully develops. A lack of command is the biggest area he needs to address — an issue that’s led to a 13.1% walk rate this year. His fastball is fantastic with velocity and carry at the top of the zone. His tremendous arm speed helps his changeup really play up, though he’s still working on developing his trio of breaking balls. Once he figures out his command and finds a bit more consistency, he’ll be a top of the rotation arm for the Pirates. Until then, he’s a work-in-progress.

---

The Big Picture:​

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Mariners	40-39	0.506	—	+17	L-W-L-L-W
Athletics	38-40	0.487	1.5	-54	L-W-W-L-L
Rangers	38-40	0.487	1.5	-10	L-W-L-W-W
Astros	37-43	0.463	3.5	-43	W-W-L-W-L
Angels	32-48	0.400	8.5	-41	L-L-W-W-L

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Rays	43-32	0.573	+5.5	+7	L-W-L-W-L
Guardians	41-38	0.519	+1.5	-8	W-L-W-L-L
Blue Jays	39-39	0.500	—	-23	W-W-L-W-W
Athletics	38-40	0.487	1.0	-54	L-W-W-L-L
Rangers	38-40	0.487	1.0	-10	L-W-L-W-W

The Rangers managed to climb back into a tie with the Athletics after winning their weekend series against the Padres and winning the first game of a series against the Marlins yesterday night. For their part, the Athletics wound up splitting their four-game series against the Angels last weekend and will start a three-game set against the Giants tonight. The Astros are also lurking at 3.5 games back in the division; they won their series against the Guardians over the weekend but dropped the first game of their series against the Blue Jays yesterday.

Continue reading...