Assuming the Ping Pong Balls treat us as normal....

[Yuma]

I will say, if the NBA were to ever give us the number one pick, last year was the year to do it. We finally get our big man, from our own backyard. Plus with a looming bribery scandal, Phoenix is a good place to put Ayton. If Ayton was in NY or LA the media would be a circus over this story. In AZ, we are like, who cares?

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't think it is rigged every year but to think there has never been or will never be a rigged draft is naive.

I'd hate to tell you what word I'd use to describe those of you that believe it has been rigged.

 

[Mainstreet]

NBA could pick and chose their spots, not every year.

It's easier to believe the lottery is legitimate.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I think we're going about this all wrong....Forget if the NBA is rigging the lottery...How can WE as Suns fans come together to rig it so the Suns get Zion?

Let's figure out some Ocean's 13 type plan. (13 in honor of Nash)

 

[Hoop Head]

There's no way the lottery is rigged. It would just be stupid. Sure, it would be profitable for the NBA if Zion ends up in NY, but if the scheme was exposed it could destroy the league. The essence of the league, competition, is gone. It's scripted at that point. It becomes the WWE. That is the NBA's worst nightmare. No way the owners risk that.

Ok, it's scripted, so what? Look at what Cousins and Durant signing in Golden State has done. The finals ratings have gone up with KD in Golden State and it gives the frontrunners a team to root for and a villain for everyone else. I know that's not the same as it being rigged but the outcome is essentially predetermined when 1 team is stacked like the Warriors are.

Reality TV is fake, everyone knows that but yet it's still watched by millions each week. The WWE is a billion dollar company that signed a deal with Fox for a billion dollars to air their show on Friday nights for the next 5 years. That's what you said the NBA didn't want to be yet there is serious money in being that. I know that's not NBA money but the NBA is putting out more product today. It's all entertainment. Saying the NBA doesn't want to become the WWE doesn't hold the weight it did in the 80's. Now, what's so wrong with that? Everyone is getting paid and that's their primary concern.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You are right. They have him PF/SF which bothers me a bit. The SF part.

That’s closer than C/PF

 

[Sunburn]

Ok, it's scripted, so what? Look at what Cousins and Durant signing in Golden State has done. The finals ratings have gone up with KD in Golden State and it gives the frontrunners a team to root for and a villain for everyone else. I know that's not the same as it being rigged but the outcome is essentially predetermined when 1 team is stacked like the Warriors are.

Reality TV is fake, everyone knows that but yet it's still watched by millions each week. The WWE is a billion dollar company that signed a deal with Fox for a billion dollars to air their show on Friday nights for the next 5 years. That's what you said the NBA didn't want to be yet there is serious money in being that. I know that's not NBA money but the NBA is putting out more product today. It's all entertainment. Saying the NBA doesn't want to become the WWE doesn't hold the weight it did in the 80's. Now, what's so wrong with that? Everyone is getting paid and that's their primary concern.

One, there's a big difference between the league rigging the draft lottery and superstars deciding to team up. The former breaks the rules, the latter does not. Two, the NBA is built on being a competitive sports league, not a scripted reality TV show. What if all the other sports decided to do this? The entire competitive sports platform would collapse. Frankly, the argument is absurd.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So the Pelicans give up Davis in order to move up one spot in the draft? Seems, er, unlikely.

Only if they know they’re going to lose him and it’s the only way they get a Zion. It seems silly but the difference Zion makes in a rebuild verses Morant is likely enormous. I doubt they make the deal but it’s not totally crazy. One slot here isn’t what one would normally think of when you think of one slot imo.

 

[Hoop Head]

One, there's a big difference between the league rigging the draft lottery and superstars deciding to team up. The former breaks the rules, the latter does not. Two, the NBA is built on being a competitive sports league, not a scripted reality TV show. What if all the other sports decided to do this? The entire competitive sports platform would collapse. Frankly, the argument is absurd.

I'm trying to play devil's advocate here. Not that I believe they'd be entirely fine if it came that things were rigged but I don't think it would be as bad for the sport as it would have been 20-30 years ago. In fact if it only came out the lottery was rigged and the games are free from any similar sort of shenanigans I'm not sure it would hurt much at all. A lot of people don't fully understand how the lottery works anyways.

 

[Western Font]

I do think the oversight or Ernst and Young matters. I’m not saying a company that big has never done anything wrong, but if it came out that they were complicit or unable to certify successfully, that could cost them a lot of business.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I do think the oversight or Ernst and Young matters. I’m not saying a company that big has never done anything wrong, but if it came out that they were complicit or unable to certify successfully, that could cost them a lot of business.

No big deal. You just get all the people involved to promise not to tell anyone. Maybe a pinky swear?

 

[Western Font]

No big deal. You just get all the people involved to promise not to tell anyone. Maybe a pinky swear?

I guess one thing is that EY is not public. They could lose business but stock wouldn't take a hit. It just seems like a really difficult thing to cover up especially in today's NBA. Someone will tell Woj at some point.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I guess one thing is that EY is not public. They could lose business but stock wouldn't take a hit. It just seems like a really difficult thing to cover up especially in today's NBA. Someone will tell Woj at some point.

Yeah it stops being a secret when the second person learns of it. And when you think of how many entities would be impacted by rigging the lottery there's just no way you'd get the kind of buy-in you'd need to keep everyone silent. Sure, the NBA would love to have Zion in New York but how happy would that make all the other teams?

 

[Covert Rain]

One thing about the lottery change. I think it kills trades into the top 3 slots. It's more like a lottery within a lottery now to trade into the top 3 positions. I mean if you have to give up something very tangible (other than picks) I bet most teams no longer do it. In some drafts the drop off is evident from #1 to #2 let lone the third player. Now there is no guarantee in a trade of getting the first pick in the draft.

If you have proven commodity on your team it would be crazy to trade that away for a lottery ticket in hopes of getting the best player. I guess if you have nothing but mediocre players on your team and bunch of picks and someone is willing to take on those players? OK. I just think it will result in fewer trades at those three spots.

 

[Mainstreet]

One thing about the lottery change. I think it kills trades into the top 3 slots. It's more like a lottery within a lottery now to trade into the top 3 positions. I mean if you have to give up something very tangible (other than picks) I bet most teams no longer do it. In some drafts the drop off is evident from #1 to #2 let lone the third player. Now there is no guarantee in a trade of getting the first pick in the draft.

If you have proven commodity on your team it would be crazy to trade that away for a lottery ticket in hopes of getting the best player. I guess if you have nothing but mediocre players on your team and bunch of picks and someone is willing to take on those players? OK. I just think it will result in fewer trades at those three spots.

Nearing the draft, I think trades can be better made once teams know their draft position.

 

[95pro]

One thing about the lottery change. I think it kills trades into the top 3 slots. It's more like a lottery within a lottery now to trade into the top 3 positions. I mean if you have to give up something very tangible (other than picks) I bet most teams no longer do it. In some drafts the drop off is evident from #1 to #2 let lone the third player. Now there is no guarantee in a trade of getting the first pick in the draft.

If you have proven commodity on your team it would be crazy to trade that away for a lottery ticket in hopes of getting the best player. I guess if you have nothing but mediocre players on your team and bunch of picks and someone is willing to take on those players? OK. I just think it will result in fewer trades at those three spots.

Can even include the top 5, the percentages are close enough. If a team like the knicks and cavs dont' get the pick ,then how else can they move up? And how else can they generate more wins? They don't have the assets and the players. Only hope is to develop them but that may take years.

whereas the Suns and Mavs have some potential on the team already where a top prospect can help them to a winning record.

 

[Western Font]

One thing about the lottery change. I think it kills trades into the top 3 slots. It's more like a lottery within a lottery now to trade into the top 3 positions. I mean if you have to give up something very tangible (other than picks) I bet most teams no longer do it. In some drafts the drop off is evident from #1 to #2 let lone the third player. Now there is no guarantee in a trade of getting the first pick in the draft.

Just to clarify your timeframe: I assume you mean trades between the time when lottery position is largely set and the lottery itself?

I wonder what teams are asking for right now for their picks. I could see Phoenix and Cleveland saying that their picks are worth more this year, since their odds are the same as the Knicks at #1. But the actual odds to get Zion for all three have gone down this year. Meanwhile the odds for Dallas (#6) through the end of the lottery have gone up slightly.

And the only reason I can even keeping this simple is because we have a consensus #1 this year.

 

[Covert Rain]

Just to clarify your timeframe: I assume you mean trades between the time when lottery position is largely set and the lottery itself?

I wonder what teams are asking for right now for their picks. I could see Phoenix and Cleveland saying that their picks are worth more this year, since their odds are the same as the Knicks at #1. But the actual odds to get Zion for all three have gone down this year. Meanwhile the odds for Dallas (#6) through the end of the lottery have gone up slightly.

And the only reason I can even keeping this simple is because we have a consensus #1 this year.

There odds are also the same for NOT getting the #1 pick. At least in the past if you KNEW who had the #1 pick and made a trade it was guaranteed you would get your guy. Now if you trade BEFORE the draft you have no idea where the chips fall until after the draft order has been decided.

So for clarification yes I was talking before the order was locked. Now it's a wait and see game to see where the order falls. It changes the dynamic a bit and shortens the window now for teams that want to trade up to get the top pick.

However, for the rest of the league it's set. The other teams have a larger window to wheel and deal and know where they are going to draft. So activity will probably be mostly out of the top 3 now until the order is decided.

 

[Mainstreet]

We will know where the draft picks fall after the lottery. I don't think anyone is trading out of the #1 position.

 

[Covert Rain]

We will know where the draft picks fall after the lottery. I don't think anyone is trading out of the #1 position.

Probably not but there won't be any movement because nobody knows in the top 3 where the chips will fall. So even if you have one of the potential slots teams are not moving until there chances are gone (order decided). We have seen teams move on the #2 and #3 before the draft.

I can tell you what though. If the Suns get ZION? This board will flip like never before.

Why couldn't this rule change have happened next year?!?!!?!?

Then again the Suns probably won't finish with the worst record. Maybe they would have had the rules been the same.

 

[Mainstreet]

Probably not but there won't be any movement because nobody knows in the top 3 where the chips will fall. So even if you have one of the potential slots teams are not moving until there chances are gone (order decided). We have seen teams move on the #2 and #3 before the draft.

I can tell you what though. If the Suns get ZION? This board will flip like never before.

Why couldn't this rule change have happened next year?!?!!?!?

Then again the Suns probably won't finish with the worst record. Maybe they would have had the rules been the same.

Even during the 2018 draft it was not a sure thing the Suns draft #1. I think the odds were something like 25% the Suns get the top pick.

At the moment the Suns odds of getting the top pick is only 14%.

If the lottery occurred now the Suns could conceivably fall to #6 as I understand it.

The Suns got lucky last draft. Let's get lucky again and draft Zion!

 

[Covert Rain]

Even during the 2018 draft it was not a sure thing the Suns draft #1. I think the odds were something like 25% the Suns get the top pick.

At the moment the Suns odds of getting the top pick is only 14%.

If the lottery occurred now the Suns could conceivably fall to #6 as I understand it.

The Suns got lucky last draft. Let's get lucky again and draft Zion!

Yes..overall. However, if the Suns don't get the #1 pick, keep in mind the "balls" that the team who got the number one pick are no longer in play. Meaning if that combo comes up again they are put back until a new combo for a different team appear. So dynamically the next two teams technically have now higher odds for for the next two picks and so on until you get to the set part of the draft.

It would have to be incredibly bad luck to fall from top 3 to #6. It could happen but I would be shocked if the Suns fell out of the top 3.

After all the bad luck the team has gotten over the years in the draft, it would be cool if the Universe let us get Zion.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yes..overall. However, if the Suns don't get the #1 pick, keep in mind the "balls" that the team who got the number one pick are no longer in play. Meaning if that combo comes up again they are put back until a new combo for a different team appear. So dynamically the next two teams technically have now higher odds for for the next two picks and so on until you get to the set part of the draft.

It would have to be incredibly bad luck to fall from top 3 to #6. It could happen but I would be shocked if the Suns fell out of the top 3.

After all the bad luck the team has gotten over the years in the draft, it would be cool if the Universe let us get Zion.

The odds of Phoenix drafting #5 is 27.8% and #6 is 20%. The odds of drafting #1 is only 14%.

Sure everything changes once the first ball is selected but it is not a reach that the Suns could draft #5 or #6.

Running the Tankathon simulator is fun if you have tried it... or even if you have.

And let's get Zion.

http://www.tankathon.com/

 

[Covert Rain]

The odds of Phoenix drafting #5 is 27.8% and #6 is 20%. The odds of drafting #1 is only 14%.

Sure everything changes once the first ball is selected but it is not a reach that the Suns could draft #5 or #6.

Running the Tankathon simulator is fun if you have tried it... or even if you have.

And let's get Zion.

http://www.tankathon.com/

I have and it’s definitely possible. I still would be shocked below 4.

 

[Mainstreet]

I have and it’s definitely possible. I still would be shocked below 4.

I hope you are correct. Josh Jackson represented the Suns at the lottery last year.

Debating whether we should send him back again or send someone like Ayton.