A Look Back at ESPN "Expert" Picks--Super Bowl XLII

[RolleRocks]

PHOENIX -- Who'll win Super Bowl XLII? It could be the Patriots in a blowout. Or maybe they'll sweat it out in the final minutes. Or maybe the Giants in a stunner. After all, few people give them a chance to knock off an unbeaten New England team that has already been lauded in some corners as the best in NFL history.
"I think it will be a shock-the-world thing," veteran Giants cornerback Sam Madison said. "But it's not going to shock us. We know we can play with these guys."
Teammate Plaxico Burress certainly thinks so -- he predicted a 23-17 Giants win earlier this week. Of course, while Burress gets a chance to actually influence the outcome of Sunday's game, the rest of us must be content with just making our predictions, sitting back and watching.
So how do our experts see it? The Pats are the heavy favorites, to be sure, but it's certainly not unanimous. The only thing we know is that everybody has an opinion on the game.

Jeffri Chadiha: Giants, 24-23
The Giants will benefit from having played New England once already. They're confident that quarterback Eli Manning can make big plays against the Patriots secondary and that their pass rush is also capable of causing problems for New England QB Tom Brady.
The Giants also watched two different teams hold Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss to just one catch. If the Giants can shut down Moss and harass Brady, the game won't even be this close. But since it's hard to do both, expect this one to come down to a last-second field goal and a Giant -- as in colossal -- upset.

John Clayton: Patriots, 38-24
Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been a master of making his players accountable. Even when they were blowing out teams by 25 or more points early in the season, players spent more time after games talking about their mistakes instead of the good plays they made. That kind of focus has made them more efficient.
Expect Tom Brady, despite the high ankle sprain, to win the Super Bowl MVP because the Patriots will go back to the four- and five-receiver pass plays that allowed him to throw for 50 touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the defense won't allow the four red zone touchdown passes that the Giants managed in their regular-season meeting.
Belichick needs to squeeze one more game and one more win out of this talented group. No team in football is better at finishing games -- and now the Pats will apply that mindset to finishing their perfect season.

Matt Mosley: Patriots, 31-17
I think the Giants will use Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to keep the Patriots off the field in the first half. I also think Steve Spagnuolo's defense will sack Tom Brady twice in the first half.
The Giants will be up, 10-7, at the half. But in the second half, Brady will start finding Wes Welker across the middle. He's the guy who killed the Giants in the Meadowlands in Week 17, and rookie cornerback Aaron Ross can't match up with him. You'll also see Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel catch the 11th touchdown pass of his career.
Spagnuolo wants to play a lot of man coverage, and I just don't think Sam Madison and Corey Webster can hold up for an entire game. Brady will finish 25-of-34 for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Eli Manning will play well, but I think the Giants will struggle in the red zone.

Len Pasquarelli: Patriots, 31-20
The outcome will come down to in-game adjustments, and no one is better at that than Bill Belichick and his staff, who are always tough to beat when they have two weeks to prepare.
The Giants will play fearlessly, as they did in the regular-season finale, but New England will make a few more big plays.

Mike Sando: Patriots, 30-20
Since beating the Bills, 56-10, for their 10th win of the season, the Patriots haven't been nearly as dominant. They won those first 10 games by an average of 25 points; in their last eight wins (including playoffs), they've won by a 10-point average. But this should not be cause for alarm. The 1962 Green Bay Packers, arguably the greatest team in NFL history, won by an average score of 32-7 in their first nine games, but only 23-15 over their final six. They still won it all.
The Giants might pull the upset -- Eli Manning is playing like a champion -- but picking against New England is like hitting on 18 in blackjack. You get credit for good fortune, not smarts, if you happen to draw a three.
More expert picks

ESPN.com NFL editors
Name Score Why?
John Banks
Patriots 42, Giants 21
Plaxico Burress and the Giants are talking a good game, but this Super Bowl has the look and feel of a blowout. Expect it to be over by halftime.

Mike McAllister
Patriots 34, Giants 24
At some point, probably early in the fourth quarter of a close game, it will suddenly hit Eli Manning. We may just win this friggin' thing. He'll tighten up. He'll make a mistake. It might be his only one -- but it will be huge. Momentum will change. The Pats will pounce. Game over.

Scott Symmes
Giants 27, Patriots 24
The Giants didn't have much incentive to play hard or much karma in Week 17, yet they nearly ruined the Pats' bid for a perfect regular season. Now the G-Men have both, and the stars just seem to be aligned for a monumental upset.

Sheldon Spencer
Giants 27, Patriots 23
A Patriots' rally falls short inside the Giants' 10-yard-line in the final minute.

Scouts Inc.
Name Score Why?
Jeremy Green
Patriots 27, Giants 23
The Pats will win but it won't be quite as wild as the first meeting. The Giants will continue their hot play, but the Patriots are just too loaded across the board.

Keith Kidd
Patriots 27, Giants 20
Simply put, the Patriots are the best team in football. They have been spectacular all season long and while the Giants are playing with a lot of confidence, the Patriots will finish the season undefeated.

Matt Williamson
Patriots 33, Giants 20
New England will score quickly and grab this game by the throat. The Giants will score late to make the game closer than it really was, but the Pats will win to go down as the best team of all time.

Ken Moll
Patriots 28, Giants 17
Both teams are playing with great confidence and believe they can win, but the Patriots win this game going away in the fourth quarter as they are clearly the better ball club. If Eli Manning and the Giants play mistake-free football, the game will be close at the end, but I think the Giants will have some turnovers in this contest.

Doug Kretz
Patriots 31, Giants 17
Bill Belichick will find some way to eliminate either Plaxico Burress or Brandon Jacobs (more than likely Burress) and frustrate Eli Manning. In their attempt to play catch-up ball, the Giants will make some costly mistakes and lose this game.

Marwan Maalouf
Patriots 28, Giants 27
Both defenses will play well, thanks to being familiar with the opposing offenses due to their Week 17 meeting. The Patriots will come from behind to beat the Giants in the final minute.

Gary Horton
Patriots 31, Giants 20
Any time you give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for an opponent, you're going to see a unique game plan and he'll have one that will frustrate Eli Manning and the Giants. Also, on a good field with perfect weather conditions, the Patriots simply have too many offensive weapons for the Giants to contend with.

ESPN.com writers
Name Score Why?

Bill Simmons
Patriots 42, Giants 17
If this Patriots season really is a perfect storm, then the Super Bowl should end like that Clooney movie. In other words, the Patriots would charge out to an early lead, throw all over the place, make a couple of big plays, put the Giants on their heels, force the Giants to abandon their running game and put Eli Manning in the position of playing from behind.

Greg Garber
Patriots 38, Giants 21
Nice weather enables Pats' offense.

Gregg Easterbrook
Giants 20, Patriots 19
This was the score 17 years ago when the Giants staged the most recent major Super Bowl upset over the heavily favored Bills, who had a record-setting offense.

Jemele Hill
Patriots 38, Giants 31
Tom Brady becomes quarterback immortal.

Wright Thompson
Giants 35, Patriots 3
Ole Miss (Manning) finally gets revenge on Michigan (Brady) for the 1991 Gator Bowl. The ghost of Greg Skrepenak is exorcised. (Note to all those who think I've lost my mind: This.Is.A.Joke.)

 

[RolleRocks]

And now these same reporters give a cut-and-paste effort again this Super Bowl:

TAMPA, Fla. -- Can the Arizona Cardinals pull off the upset and complete another unlikely Super Bowl title run, as the New York Giants did last season? Or will the Pittsburgh Steelers' top-ranked defense lead them to an unprecedented sixth Super Bowl crown?

More Super Bowl picks

How do our experts see it? The Steelers are the favorites, but it's certainly far from unanimous. The only thing we know for sure is that everyone has an opinion on the game.
John Clayton:
Steelers, 24-17
The premise that defense wins championships doesn't necessarily apply in a time when the past two Super Bowl winners didn't rank in the top 10 in scoring defense and when 21 defensive coordinators have been changed after the highest-scoring season since 1965.
What's historically true is great defenses win championships and this is a great Steelers defense -- particularly in stopping the pass. And the Cardinals' offense is dominated by the pass.
Super Bowl Voting Shifts
At the start of the week, SportsNation installed the Steelers as its favorite to win Super Bowl XLIII by a 52-48% margin. By midweek, the Cardinals pulled into a dead heat with the Steelers. Then, the franchise that was given little hope of making a postseason run, became SN's Super Bowl pick.

Cards now favored | Voting shift
Spread voting
Jeffri Chadiha: Steelers, 31-23
The Steelers' defense is strong enough to control Arizona's vaunted passing attack. Pittsburgh will pressure Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, contain receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and create some big plays with its offense.
Mike Sando: Cardinals, 20-14
I see why the Steelers are favored, but how often does an NFC West blogger get a chance to pick the Cardinals to win it all? I'm not waiting 'til next time. Arizona wins if its defense rises to the occasion.
James Walker: Steelers, 21-17
Fitzgerald will need another out-of-this-world performance for Arizona to have a chance. "Fitz" will be good -- but not great -- against Pittsburgh's air-tight defense, and that won't be enough.
Pat Yasinskas: Steelers, 27-24
It's hard to pick against the Cardinals because they've played like destiny's team throughout the playoffs and Fitzgerald is in the kind of zone we haven't seen from any athlete since Carl Yastrzemski in the final few weeks of the Boston Red Sox's 1967 Impossible Dream season. But dreams are dreams and defense wins championships.
More expert picks
ESPN.com writers
Name Score Why?
Gregg Easterbrook Cardinals, 28-10
Immediately after the Lombardi Trophy is awarded, a gigantic starcruiser will appear above the stadium and beam up "Kurt Warner" to return him to his home world. All we will have left to show that "Kurt" ever existed will be an empty uniform, some smelly athletic tape and the shape-shifting projector device he used to take human form.

Greg Garber
Cardinals, 27-21 Yes, the Steelers have the league's best defense, but San Diego and Baltimore didn't have the weapons that Arizona has. The Cardinals are major underdogs, but last year's uber-underdogs, the Giants, found a way to ruin the Patriots' bid for an unprecedented undefeated season. This is much less of a stretch.

Tim Graham
Steelers, 27-17 Against the AFC East, I've seen the Cardinals look rotten twice and sensational twice. I'm still not convinced they've figured it out. The Steelers have been consistently impressive all year. I'm going with the defense that shows up every week.
Jemele Hill Steelers, 27-23 This is not a comfortable pick for me. Arizona reminds me a lot of how last year's Giants transformed. And the most dangerous team is always the one with the lowest expectations. But I just can't see them bettering Pittsburgh's defense.
Paul Kuharsky Steelers, 27-24 In the end, the team that was tested more, fared better and had the better defense over the long haul wins it.

Matt Mosley
Steelers, 27-21 Big Ben atones for a woeful performance in his first Super Bowl and wins the MVP trophy. Todd Haley wins several sideline arguments, but can't steer the Cards' offense to a world title.

Sal Paolantonio
Cardinals, 27-21 This is a bad matchup for the Steelers' defense. Warner's quick release will diffuse the effectiveness of the Steelers' zone blitz. And Fitzgerald's constant presnap motion, his speed and his leaping ability will occupy the attention of Troy Polamalu, who then won't be able to attack the line of scrimmage with the same ferocity.

Len Pasquarelli
Steelers, 27-17 Too much defense: Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will come up with something to stop the Cardinals.

Kevin Seifert
Steelers, 24-19 The Cardinals have toughened up under Ken Whisenhunt, but I don't think they're on a level with the hard-hitting Steelers. Pittsburgh is just too physical.

Bill Simmons
Steelers, 29-13 This game reminds me a lot of the Ravens-Giants SB, and as I have always preached, the NFL title always comes down to which team did their "thing" better than anyone else did their "thing." The 2008 Steelers played defense better than anyone else did anything. And so I'm picking them in a surprisingly easy romp.

Bill Williamson
Steelers, 34-17 The Cardinals have been playing well for three weeks; the Steelers have been playing well for four months. The Cardinals will be shocked by Pittsburgh's physical play on defense and will be frustrated when they can't score at will as they have in the playoffs. The Steelers are simply the better team and they will wear down the Cinderellas from the desert in the second half.

Gene Wojciechowski
Steelers, 20-17 There are lots of good reasons to take the Cardinals. But there are more reasons to take the Steelers.

Scouts Inc.
Name Score Why?

Jeremy Green
Cardinals, 31-27 For Pittsburgh to win it will have to make a defensive adjustment that would be out of character: play press coverage outside with corners. Warner looks comfortable in the shotgun and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly will prevent the Steelers from getting pressure. The Steelers won't be able to make the adjustment and ask their guys to do something they are not comfortable doing.

Gary Horton
Cardinals, 27-21 The Steelers' great blitz package will have trouble getting to Warner because he works from the shotgun and gets the ball out so quickly. Arizona will move the ball with success, but the thing that will put them over the top will be a surprisingly improved defense. They will make just enough stops to win.

Keith Kidd
Steelers, 20-17 There are so many intriguing matchups in this game. But the one I love is the Cardinals' offense under Haley against LeBeau's aggressive zone-blitz concepts. How will Warner attack the Steelers' blitz? Can the Steelers' back end contain Fitzgerald? This has all the makings of a great Super Bowl in which the Steel Curtain will find a way to win another championship.

Doug Kretz
Steelers, 24-17 The Steelers had the most dominating defense in the NFL this season and know how to pressure the pocket and force bad throws like no other team. They also have just enough balance on offense to keep opponents from being able to focus on stopping one phase of their game.

Ken Moll
Steelers, 24-20 I see the Steelers taking this contest with the better defense and a more balanced offensive attack that will be too much for Arizona to overcome.

Tag Ribary
Steelers, 27-24 The Steelers do a great job of adjusting each week to take away an opponent's strengths and LeBeau is one of the best at utilizing the talent around him. Arizona will present some problems for the Steelers, but I like their ability to match up and play physically.

Matt Williamson
Steelers, 23-21 The Cardinals are going to give the Steelers all they can handle and really are not a great matchup for them. Arizona will have no running game to speak of and should abandon it quickly, but that won't be enough to slow the offense completely. The Steelers' defense eventually will prevail and their offense is better balanced. Plus, I expect them to weather the early jitters better than Arizona. However, if the Cards get up by 10 or so early, the Steelers could be in big trouble.

ESPN analysts
Name Score Why?

Chris Berman
Steelers, 27-17 Big Ben once again stands tall in the pocket like John Wayne.

Trent Dilfer
Steelers, 33-18 The Steelers jump to an early lead and give their offense good field position all day long.

Stuart Scott
Cardinals, 27-24 The Cardinals win the first overtime game in Super Bowl history.

Emmitt Smith
Cardinals, 34-28 I'm going with the upset. The difference-makers for this ballclub are the reason for the win and they are: Fitzgerald, Boldin, coach Ken Whisenhunt and Warner.

Marcellus Wiley
Steelers, 37-14 They have the best defense and when you start to name all of the weapons on offense -- Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes and Roethlisberger -- it's just too much, so they win the game in big fashion.

Trey Wingo
Steelers, 28-20 The Steelers' pressure will do what no one has been able to do all postseason -- get to Warner.

Steve Young
Cardinals, 35-31 Warner cements his place in Canton, Ohio. He'll be remembered as one of the greatest quarterbacks in playoff history.

ESPN.com NFL editors
Name Score Why?

John Banks
Steelers, 30-14 A birdie told me Steelers tight end Heath Miller is going to have a big game. But Big Ben is going to be the star, putting that 22.6 passer ranking from Super Bowl XL behind him and earning MVP honors. Expect the defense to shut down Fitzgerald.

Jamar Hudson
Cardinals, 27-21 Warner and Fitzgerald have been an unstoppable duo so far this postseason and that success will continue. The Steelers' defense is good, but they have yet to face an offense like the Cardinals'. Warner will solidify his spot in the Hall of Fame with another MVP performance as Arizona jumps out to an early lead and holds on to win its first Super Bowl.

Alex Kimball
Steelers, 24-16 Hard to see the Cardinals running the ball effectively, which will put added pressure on the pass protection. The Steelers should get a big game from Parker.

Sheldon Spencer
Cardinals, 30-27 Neil Rackers wins the game with a 50-yard field goal in the final minute.

Scott Symmes
Cardinals, 23-17 In a month's span, the Cardinals have transformed from joke to juggernaut. Can they upset the battle-tested Steelers? All the pieces are in place. Arizona has a big-game QB, all-world receivers and a revived running game. Even the team's much-maligned defense is peaking. Will it be easy? No. But the Cardinals will prevail in a close game.

 

[ReddBird]

Strong post. Thanks.

I try to remember that most of the so-called pundits saw the Jets game, saw the Patriots game, and didn't watch anything else until the play-offs. By then, most of them had already decided that the Card were losers...and they refused to allow reality to color that past perception.

We're gonna win this game.