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Welcome back to another analysis of five MLB pitchers in the 2026 season. This week, instead of focusing on the underperformers, we will look at those who are overperforming, including some who have had the best season of their career. With many sporting ERAs around 2.00, we will examine which pitchers are outperforming their expected values.
MORE: Former World Series champion retires immediately, then changes his mind one day later
May 20, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy (36) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning of an MLB at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
One of the biggest overperformers in the MLB this season has to be St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy. With an ERA (2.40) and WHIP (0.99) that place him in the top 10 in the NL for both categories, you might expect him to be solid from the mound. However, his expected numbers tell a different story. His xBA (.296), xSLG (.539), xwOBA (.374), xwOBAcon (.433), and xERA (5.83) all rank him in the bottom 10% across the MLB.
His high hard hit rate (41.1%) and high barrel rate (10.8%) indicate that the contact has not been soft either, so much of his run prevention traces back to batted-ball luck rather than skill. He is a prime example of an overperformer, suggesting a regression towards his underlying metrics is soon to come.
Sitting at 6-1 with a 1.32 ERA through his first 7 games this season, Spencer Arrighetti is making a strong case for an early Cy Young candidate. However, there is much skepticism about his young career, which highlights why many experts are not including him in the conversation. His 4.76 xERA and 4.90 xFIP both suggest that he should be a back-end starter rather than an ace.
Also, his .268 wOBA sits well under his .343 xwOBA, which shows that hitters have produced softer outcomes than their contact quality warrants. His 14.3% walk rate, combined with an underwhelming MLB track record across his first two seasons, shows why his current dominance is regression-bound rather than being a genuine Cy Young case.
May 22, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Bryce Elder (55) throws against the Washington Nationals in the fifth inning of an MLB game at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Another pitcher with a sub-2 ERA, Bryce Elder, is showing his best stuff to start the 2026 season. However, his xERA, while solid, still suggests he is outrunning his contact-quality data. His 3.21 FIP and 3.74 xFIP sit well above his ERA, explained by his low BABIP of .228, which is likely to increase as the season progresses.
Although his 22.5% strikeout rate is a career best, it is unlikely to fully hold. With an ERA of 5.30 just last season, the suppression of contact has never been there, and thus, he is outperforming his true talent level immensely, suggesting a meaningful regression is in order as his batted-ball fortune normalizes.
Through his first 8 starts, Davis Martin is 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, putting him top 5 in the AL in every category. Martin is a pitcher who has sat at an ERA in the 4s through his first three seasons, so how has he suddenly broken out as the White Sox’s ace? One of the biggest helpers is his 84.1% strand rate, allowing him to outperform his xERA by 1.54.
However, this won’t last, as shown by his contact allowed (45.5% hard-hit rate and 90.1 mph average exit velocity). It isn’t pure luck, as he has improved his walk rate to 5.0% and strikeout rate to 27.4%. However, he should be a solid mid-rotation arm once his batted-ball luck corrects, not the ace that he currently looks like.
May 15, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock (26) delivers a pitch during the second inning in an MLB game vs. the San Diego Padres at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
The last pitcher to round out our group for today is Seattle Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock. His current strong ERA and WHIP are likely inflated by luck, as his expected metrics and underlying contact quality suggest regression. His 3.98 xERA is almost a full run higher than his 3.21 ERA, and hitters have made solid contact against him, evidenced by a high hard-hit (44.2%) and barrel rate (9.9%).
Moreover, his past season’s poor strikeout rate (14.7%) and high FIP (5.69) indicate he lacks the skills to sustain his current performance, making a step back probable.
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MORE: Former World Series champion retires immediately, then changes his mind one day later
Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals
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May 20, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy (36) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning of an MLB at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
One of the biggest overperformers in the MLB this season has to be St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy. With an ERA (2.40) and WHIP (0.99) that place him in the top 10 in the NL for both categories, you might expect him to be solid from the mound. However, his expected numbers tell a different story. His xBA (.296), xSLG (.539), xwOBA (.374), xwOBAcon (.433), and xERA (5.83) all rank him in the bottom 10% across the MLB.
His high hard hit rate (41.1%) and high barrel rate (10.8%) indicate that the contact has not been soft either, so much of his run prevention traces back to batted-ball luck rather than skill. He is a prime example of an overperformer, suggesting a regression towards his underlying metrics is soon to come.
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
Sitting at 6-1 with a 1.32 ERA through his first 7 games this season, Spencer Arrighetti is making a strong case for an early Cy Young candidate. However, there is much skepticism about his young career, which highlights why many experts are not including him in the conversation. His 4.76 xERA and 4.90 xFIP both suggest that he should be a back-end starter rather than an ace.
Also, his .268 wOBA sits well under his .343 xwOBA, which shows that hitters have produced softer outcomes than their contact quality warrants. His 14.3% walk rate, combined with an underwhelming MLB track record across his first two seasons, shows why his current dominance is regression-bound rather than being a genuine Cy Young case.
Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves
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May 22, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Bryce Elder (55) throws against the Washington Nationals in the fifth inning of an MLB game at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Another pitcher with a sub-2 ERA, Bryce Elder, is showing his best stuff to start the 2026 season. However, his xERA, while solid, still suggests he is outrunning his contact-quality data. His 3.21 FIP and 3.74 xFIP sit well above his ERA, explained by his low BABIP of .228, which is likely to increase as the season progresses.
Although his 22.5% strikeout rate is a career best, it is unlikely to fully hold. With an ERA of 5.30 just last season, the suppression of contact has never been there, and thus, he is outperforming his true talent level immensely, suggesting a meaningful regression is in order as his batted-ball fortune normalizes.
Davis Martin, White Sox
Through his first 8 starts, Davis Martin is 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, putting him top 5 in the AL in every category. Martin is a pitcher who has sat at an ERA in the 4s through his first three seasons, so how has he suddenly broken out as the White Sox’s ace? One of the biggest helpers is his 84.1% strand rate, allowing him to outperform his xERA by 1.54.
However, this won’t last, as shown by his contact allowed (45.5% hard-hit rate and 90.1 mph average exit velocity). It isn’t pure luck, as he has improved his walk rate to 5.0% and strikeout rate to 27.4%. However, he should be a solid mid-rotation arm once his batted-ball luck corrects, not the ace that he currently looks like.
Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners
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May 15, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock (26) delivers a pitch during the second inning in an MLB game vs. the San Diego Padres at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
The last pitcher to round out our group for today is Seattle Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock. His current strong ERA and WHIP are likely inflated by luck, as his expected metrics and underlying contact quality suggest regression. His 3.98 xERA is almost a full run higher than his 3.21 ERA, and hitters have made solid contact against him, evidenced by a high hard-hit (44.2%) and barrel rate (9.9%).
Moreover, his past season’s poor strikeout rate (14.7%) and high FIP (5.69) indicate he lacks the skills to sustain his current performance, making a step back probable.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —
Continue reading...
