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As we venture into the first week of June, the 2026 MLB season is fully underway. This week, we are back to focusing on the overperformers, or the arms whose ERAs are being suppressed by batted-ball luck and high strand rates. From ERAs near 1.50 with xFIPs above 5.00, we examine five pitchers who are outrunning their underlying numbers.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: 30 teams ranked worst to first
May 10, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; MLB: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Nick Martinez (28) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
Leading off the list this week is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez, whose current run of form seems highly unsustainable. Through May, he sits at a 1.62 ERA over 66.2 innings, helping Tampa Bay currently post the lowest team ERA in baseball. What really helps him is his BABIP (.236) and strand rate (90.2%), which both outperform his career figures.
He limits hard contact with only a low hard-hit rate (32.5%) and average exit velocity (86.7 mph), but his low strikeout rate (14.9%) and 92.6 mph fastball do not allow for a continuous swing-and-miss arsenal. Once baserunners stop being stranded, Nick Martinez’s ERA will climb above his sub-2.00 mark as his command-and-luck mirage fades.
Next up is New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes, who had been one of the few bright spots in Queens before his injury, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across his first 52.2 innings. He thrives on grounders rather than being dominant on the mound, which is shown by his contact quality data: a 44% hard-hit rate and a .307 expected wOBA against his .262 actual mark.
Similarly to Nick Martinez, his success comes from his low BABIP (.210) and high strand rate (90.2%). However, he lacks the ability for a swing-and-miss pitch, with only an 18.2% strikeout rate, 93.7 mph velocity, and a 4.35 xERA suggesting he deserves worse.
Kansas City Royals veteran Michael Wacha is running a 2.69 ERA through his first 11 starts. The expected metrics, on the other hand, are less impressive. He has a 3.94 xERA and a 5.39 xFIP that sit well above his ERA. Although Wacha’s wOBA allowed has beaten his xwOBA every season since 2020, luck is playing a big role this year.
His low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (83.1%), paired with his low HR/FB rate (5.9%) tell the story, but it is not maintainable over the rest of the season. His mediocre hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9 mph) combined with the gap between his ERA and everything underneath it points to a steady climb back toward the 4.00 range.
Jun 1, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; MLB: Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (39) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the fifth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that his underlying metrics don’t support his current ERA. Through 45 innings, he has a 2.60 ERA matched with a 3.84 xERA and a brutal 5.95 xFIP. He does not produce soft contact either, having a 40.5% hard-hit rate, an 89.5 mph average exit velocity, and a .311 expected wOBA.
The red flag is his decreasing strikeout rate, down from 25.2% last year to only 18.1% this year, while his walk rate has ballooned to 9.9%. With the whiffs gone and the free passes up, Patrick should keep drifting toward the back-end-starter profile his xFIP has been suggesting all along.
Rounding out the group is Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski. Through 10 games and 62.2 innings, he has a 2.87 ERA that stacks on luck with a .237 BABIP and 2.8% HR/FB rate. In reality, he struggles to miss bats, as shown by his expected line of a 3.81 xERA, a 5.98 xFIP, and a .310 xwOBA against the loud contact he’s actually surrendering: a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph average exit velocity.
A 16.0% strikeout rate, among the lowest of any qualified starter, leaves everything riding on weak contact and balls finding gloves. Wrobleski profiles as a useful back-end arm, but his run prevention is built on luck; the expected metrics say it is draining away.
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MORE: MLB Power Rankings: 30 teams ranked worst to first
Nick Martinez, Rays
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May 10, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; MLB: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Nick Martinez (28) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
Leading off the list this week is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez, whose current run of form seems highly unsustainable. Through May, he sits at a 1.62 ERA over 66.2 innings, helping Tampa Bay currently post the lowest team ERA in baseball. What really helps him is his BABIP (.236) and strand rate (90.2%), which both outperform his career figures.
He limits hard contact with only a low hard-hit rate (32.5%) and average exit velocity (86.7 mph), but his low strikeout rate (14.9%) and 92.6 mph fastball do not allow for a continuous swing-and-miss arsenal. Once baserunners stop being stranded, Nick Martinez’s ERA will climb above his sub-2.00 mark as his command-and-luck mirage fades.
Clay Holmes, Mets
Next up is New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes, who had been one of the few bright spots in Queens before his injury, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across his first 52.2 innings. He thrives on grounders rather than being dominant on the mound, which is shown by his contact quality data: a 44% hard-hit rate and a .307 expected wOBA against his .262 actual mark.
Similarly to Nick Martinez, his success comes from his low BABIP (.210) and high strand rate (90.2%). However, he lacks the ability for a swing-and-miss pitch, with only an 18.2% strikeout rate, 93.7 mph velocity, and a 4.35 xERA suggesting he deserves worse.
Michael Wacha, Royals
Kansas City Royals veteran Michael Wacha is running a 2.69 ERA through his first 11 starts. The expected metrics, on the other hand, are less impressive. He has a 3.94 xERA and a 5.39 xFIP that sit well above his ERA. Although Wacha’s wOBA allowed has beaten his xwOBA every season since 2020, luck is playing a big role this year.
His low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (83.1%), paired with his low HR/FB rate (5.9%) tell the story, but it is not maintainable over the rest of the season. His mediocre hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9 mph) combined with the gap between his ERA and everything underneath it points to a steady climb back toward the 4.00 range.
Chad Patrick, Brewers
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Jun 1, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; MLB: Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (39) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the fifth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that his underlying metrics don’t support his current ERA. Through 45 innings, he has a 2.60 ERA matched with a 3.84 xERA and a brutal 5.95 xFIP. He does not produce soft contact either, having a 40.5% hard-hit rate, an 89.5 mph average exit velocity, and a .311 expected wOBA.
The red flag is his decreasing strikeout rate, down from 25.2% last year to only 18.1% this year, while his walk rate has ballooned to 9.9%. With the whiffs gone and the free passes up, Patrick should keep drifting toward the back-end-starter profile his xFIP has been suggesting all along.
Justin Wrobleski, Dodgers
Rounding out the group is Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski. Through 10 games and 62.2 innings, he has a 2.87 ERA that stacks on luck with a .237 BABIP and 2.8% HR/FB rate. In reality, he struggles to miss bats, as shown by his expected line of a 3.81 xERA, a 5.98 xFIP, and a .310 xwOBA against the loud contact he’s actually surrendering: a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph average exit velocity.
A 16.0% strikeout rate, among the lowest of any qualified starter, leaves everything riding on weak contact and balls finding gloves. Wrobleski profiles as a useful back-end arm, but his run prevention is built on luck; the expected metrics say it is draining away.
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Continue reading...
