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These are the ten starting pitchers who’ve quietly wrecked ratios and given nothing back in Fantasy Baseball, ranked on the four categories a starter actually fills: wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and ERA/WHIP weighted by innings, so more damage over more innings counts for more. Then xERA and contact-allowed sort the unlucky from the deserving. One’s a sell signal that already happened, while the other’s a buy-low hiding under an ugly ERA. Reading which is which is the whole game here.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: All 30 teams ranked worst to first to begin July
Jul 3, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) throws the ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
Despite being traded from the New York Mets to the Chicago Cubs, David Peterson hasn’t improved. However, his 6.78 ERA looks worse than he’s pitched, a 5.13 xERA, 1.65 below it, on a solid 9.7% K-BB% and just 6.6% barrels allowed. The runs have crossed faster than the contact says they should.
It looks like a rebound is coming for Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz; however, not by much. A 5.55 xERA under the 6.19 ERA, but don’t reach for it. A 3.7% K-BB% and 42.8% hard-hit mean the correction lands at mediocre, not startable. He’s missing bats at a rate that caps how good this ever gets.
One of the unluckiest arms on this list comes from the Athletics left Jacob Lopez. He has a 4.02 xERA against a 6.75 ERA, a full 2.73 gap, on the softest contact on the board (4.7% barrels). But a 2.1% K-BB% is a real red flag. The improvement looks probable, it just doesn’t lead anywhere worth rostering.
Pittsburgh Pirates righty Griffin Canning’s 6.71 ERA sits nearly two runs above a 4.80 xERA, so the runs have outrun the process. The trouble is the process isn’t clean either. Almost every other hit is rocketed at a 49% hard-hit allowed, the highest here. Furthermore, the bounce-back is toward tolerable, not toward a lineup lock.
May 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws the ball against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
One arm who is surely negatively impacting your fantasy roster is Arizona Diamondbacks righty, Zac Gallen. His 6.36 ERA is earned, a 6.27 xERA right on top of it, 44.4% hard-hit, and a limp 6.8% K-BB%. There’s no luck involved, which could imply an improvement. This is a pitcher genuinely getting squared up, and the ratios are the honest bill.
Boston Red Sox righty Brayan Bello clears the eight-start floor and immediately regrets it. A 6.34 ERA with a 6.23 xERA glued to it, showcasing no luck to give back, on a thin 7.1% K-BB% and 44.1% hard-hit. What you see is what he’s been.
The 7.25 ERA has real Coors inflation baked in, and a 5.59 xERA hints at a softer landing for the Colorado Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. But a 14.1% K-BB% with 43.6% hard-hit says the ceiling is replacement level. Those altitude-inflated ratios are the exact cost of the roster spot.
The Philadelphia Phillies rookie’s 7.06 ERA is nearly two runs above a 5.16 xERA, and the process backs it up. a 9.7% K-BB%, just 35.2% hard-hit allowed. The runs have crossed way ahead of the contact. Andrew Painter is a great buy-low candidate whose struggles might pay off soon.
Jul 2, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (24) delvers a pitch in the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
An 86-inning body of work at a 6.91 ERA sums up another Colorado Rockies starter in Michael Lorenzen. The volume is what stings, as the damage is compounded over innings. A 5.59 xERA promises some relief, but an 8.5% K-BB% and 46.5% hard-hit cap it at replacement.
The worst starter on this list is Simeon Woods Richardson, and it’s fully deserved. A 5.92 xERA sits under a 6.40 ERA, and the underlying line is grim: a -0.4% K-BB%, meaning he’s walked as many as he’s struck out, with 43% hard-hit allowed. A pitcher is getting hit and missing no bats. That’s the floor.
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MORE: MLB Power Rankings: All 30 teams ranked worst to first to begin July
10. David Peterson
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Jul 3, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) throws the ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
Despite being traded from the New York Mets to the Chicago Cubs, David Peterson hasn’t improved. However, his 6.78 ERA looks worse than he’s pitched, a 5.13 xERA, 1.65 below it, on a solid 9.7% K-BB% and just 6.6% barrels allowed. The runs have crossed faster than the contact says they should.
9. Jack Kochanowicz
It looks like a rebound is coming for Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz; however, not by much. A 5.55 xERA under the 6.19 ERA, but don’t reach for it. A 3.7% K-BB% and 42.8% hard-hit mean the correction lands at mediocre, not startable. He’s missing bats at a rate that caps how good this ever gets.
8. Jacob Lopez
One of the unluckiest arms on this list comes from the Athletics left Jacob Lopez. He has a 4.02 xERA against a 6.75 ERA, a full 2.73 gap, on the softest contact on the board (4.7% barrels). But a 2.1% K-BB% is a real red flag. The improvement looks probable, it just doesn’t lead anywhere worth rostering.
7. Griffin Canning
Pittsburgh Pirates righty Griffin Canning’s 6.71 ERA sits nearly two runs above a 4.80 xERA, so the runs have outrun the process. The trouble is the process isn’t clean either. Almost every other hit is rocketed at a 49% hard-hit allowed, the highest here. Furthermore, the bounce-back is toward tolerable, not toward a lineup lock.
6. Zac Gallen
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May 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws the ball against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
One arm who is surely negatively impacting your fantasy roster is Arizona Diamondbacks righty, Zac Gallen. His 6.36 ERA is earned, a 6.27 xERA right on top of it, 44.4% hard-hit, and a limp 6.8% K-BB%. There’s no luck involved, which could imply an improvement. This is a pitcher genuinely getting squared up, and the ratios are the honest bill.
5. Brayan Bello
Boston Red Sox righty Brayan Bello clears the eight-start floor and immediately regrets it. A 6.34 ERA with a 6.23 xERA glued to it, showcasing no luck to give back, on a thin 7.1% K-BB% and 44.1% hard-hit. What you see is what he’s been.
4. Kyle Freeland
The 7.25 ERA has real Coors inflation baked in, and a 5.59 xERA hints at a softer landing for the Colorado Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. But a 14.1% K-BB% with 43.6% hard-hit says the ceiling is replacement level. Those altitude-inflated ratios are the exact cost of the roster spot.
3. Andrew Painter
The Philadelphia Phillies rookie’s 7.06 ERA is nearly two runs above a 5.16 xERA, and the process backs it up. a 9.7% K-BB%, just 35.2% hard-hit allowed. The runs have crossed way ahead of the contact. Andrew Painter is a great buy-low candidate whose struggles might pay off soon.
2. Michael Lorenzen
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Jul 2, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (24) delvers a pitch in the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
An 86-inning body of work at a 6.91 ERA sums up another Colorado Rockies starter in Michael Lorenzen. The volume is what stings, as the damage is compounded over innings. A 5.59 xERA promises some relief, but an 8.5% K-BB% and 46.5% hard-hit cap it at replacement.
1. Simeon Woods Richardson
The worst starter on this list is Simeon Woods Richardson, and it’s fully deserved. A 5.92 xERA sits under a 6.40 ERA, and the underlying line is grim: a -0.4% K-BB%, meaning he’s walked as many as he’s struck out, with 43% hard-hit allowed. A pitcher is getting hit and missing no bats. That’s the floor.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —
Continue reading...
