2024 Draft Countdown/NFL Prospects thread

OP
OP
football karma

football karma

Happy in the pretense of knowledge
Joined
Jul 22, 2002
Posts
14,794
Reaction score
12,998
interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups
 

SoonerLou

ASFN Addict
Joined
Sep 15, 2019
Posts
7,744
Reaction score
11,298
Location
St Louis, MO
interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups
So MHJ being AJ Green and Keon Coleman being Julio Jones confirmed.
 

Cbus cardsfan

Back to Back ASFN FFL Champion
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
21,185
Reaction score
6,676
Looks like MHJ is going #1 overall to the Bears.
They're going to trade that pick. They'd be fools not too. As much as I like MH, if the Cards end up picking #1 and Kyler is their guy, they'd be fools not to hold some team hostage for picks. The Bears will do the same, assuming Fields is their QB moving forward.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
36,796
Reaction score
26,523
Location
Gilbert, AZ
They're going to trade that pick. They'd be fools not too. As much as I like MH, if the Cards end up picking #1 and Kyler is their guy, they'd be fools not to hold some team hostage for picks. The Bears will do the same, assuming Fields is their QB moving forward.
100% this. Someone is going to give them two firsts for the rights to their favorite QB. They'd be foolish not to take that and instead take a WR. DJ Moore is 26 and under contract for two more years.
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,031
Reaction score
14,559
Location
Charlotte
Why you don't trade Hill for a bunch of nothing when you have Mahomes.

That is a dynasty combo with Kelce.

You must be registered for see images attach
 

Garthshort

ASFN Addict
Joined
Aug 11, 2002
Posts
9,038
Reaction score
4,923
Location
Scarsdale, NY
interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups
For every team that trades down, there is a team that trades up.
 

GatorAZ

feed hopkins
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Posts
24,374
Reaction score
16,599
Location
The Giant Toaster
Based upon the argument I have heard many on this board make, it is better to be absolutely terrible than it is to be .500. Applying this logic to Kyler and Rosen, it makes Rosen the better option.

As I have said, without significant improvement, I don't believe Kyler will ever win a playoff game.

Also, I don't see the JOsh Rosen comp for Drake Maye. Not sure how you get to that.

I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
36,796
Reaction score
26,523
Location
Gilbert, AZ
I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.
I always thought this was predicated on the idea you could also get something for Kyler.

Like would you make the deal if you got the 11th pick in the draft and Atlanta’s 2025 first? What about their 2025 second instead?

Maybe they’re making Kyler play like Ryan Tannehill because they’re trying to trade him to RT’s old boss.
 
Last edited:

Garthshort

ASFN Addict
Joined
Aug 11, 2002
Posts
9,038
Reaction score
4,923
Location
Scarsdale, NY
correct -- and the team that trades down usually gets more production out of that trade than the team trading up
You're probably correct, but if you know it the teams ALSO know it. So why are they doing it? Because the other teams aren't as smart as we are (is that why?). I'm being serious.
 
OP
OP
football karma

football karma

Happy in the pretense of knowledge
Joined
Jul 22, 2002
Posts
14,794
Reaction score
12,998
You're probably correct, but if you know it the teams ALSO know it. So why are they doing it? Because the other teams aren't as smart as we are (is that why?). I'm being serious.
we are down to "rational decision making" part of the draft

the pod explains it via incentives:

Any GM who doesn't have a QB knows they need one if they want to keep their job. Since not having a QB has an immediate cost but the cost of giving up multiple picks wont be felt for several seasons -- GMs are incented to trade up because they live in the short term.
 

Crimson Warrior

Dangerous Murray Zealot
Joined
Oct 27, 2002
Posts
7,566
Reaction score
7,321
Location
Home of the Thunder
Why you don't trade Hill for a bunch of nothing when you have Mahomes.

That is a dynasty combo with Kelce.

You must be registered for see images attach

That Tyreek Hill doesn't play for us is depressing. This is me watching him play football.

You must be registered for see images attach
 
Last edited:

Cheesebeef

ASFN IDOL
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
88,408
Reaction score
61,058
That Tyreek hill doesn't play for us is depressing. This is me watching him play football.

You must be registered for see images attach
I'm fine with not cheering for a proven piece of crap, woman beater like Tyreek. You sure as hell would never see me staring out a window pining for a guy like that.
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,008
Reaction score
14,444
Location
Plainfield, Il.
I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.
Very well said.
 

Crimson Warrior

Dangerous Murray Zealot
Joined
Oct 27, 2002
Posts
7,566
Reaction score
7,321
Location
Home of the Thunder
Even if we stay at #3?

Hmmm... Depends on who's drafting 4th and 5th. If we're lucky enough that one of them is a QB-hungry team, we may try to trade spots with them.

Maybe we try to do that even if MJH is still on the board? It's a good question though. Maybe one of the draft gurus (not me for sure) can weigh in on this.
 

BritCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
21,102
Reaction score
37,250
Location
UK
I doubt we stay at 3 if MHJ is gone. But no, I wouldn't take him at 3. Probably Alt if we stay.

I'm not sure we stay at #3 if he is there.

If they really want WR you can trade back and get Nabers plus a bunch of extra capital. There's less between Nabers and MHJ than people think and there will even be some that prefer one over the other depending on what fits their system.

I'd rather have Nabers and a future #1 and #2 than just MHJ.

My personal feeling is they would prefer to go WR in round 2 or 3 in a deep class and build the trenches, but much depends on what happens in FA.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
60,331
Reaction score
52,054
Location
SoCal
interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups
That would make sense. They’re ranked right next to one and other.
 
Top