2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Wha? How is Doncic going to help with the shooting? He’s a 32% three point shooter. At least with a Big you’re not taking up a spot that absolutely NEEDS to be a shooter in today’s game.

You said our biggest problems are defense and outside shooting... but Doncic doesn’t help EITHER of those while every big man at least helps solidify the defense or at least give us a post-game to make the D adjust.

It is easy to say he isn't a good shooter if you simply look at the stats. However, I believe the reason why he has a poor 3 point percentage is because of the attention he gets on the defensive end (much like Booker in the 2nd half of his rookie season). Two years in a row now his responsibility has gone up significantly and his 3 point percentage has taken a hit in the process. His percentages will go up significantly with better talent around him and in a more free flowing game that the NBA plays.

 

[Mainstreet]

I know the correct answer for a lot of posters is to draft Doncic if Ayton is gone when the Suns pick.

Some mocks have Doncic listed as a PG, SG or SF. This is what makes me uncomfortable... the lack of a defined position.

There are plenty of PGs available and the Suns appear set at SG and SF.

Does anyone project Doncic as better than Jackson?

The Suns largest need is center although they could use a FC.

I guess I'm not seeing Doncic as heads and tails over other players in the top 7 even if he is a pure PG.

If Doncic were 6'11" it would be an easier call.

 

[Mainstreet]

Mikal Bridges is looking good.

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[Hoop Head]

I know the correct answer for a lot of posters is to draft Doncic if Ayton is gone when the Suns pick.

Some mocks have Doncic listed as a PG, SG or SF. This is what makes me uncomfortable... the lack of a defined position.

There are plenty of PGs available and the Suns appear set at SG and SF.

Does anyone project Doncic as better than Jackson?

The Suns largest need is center although they could use a FC.

I guess I'm not seeing Doncic as heads and tails over other players in the top 7 even if he is a pure PG.

If Doncic were 6'11" it would be an easier call.

It's a weird situation because if he were 2-3 inches shorter or 2-3 inches taller then he'd be a player the Suns shouldn't pass on but as is, I don't think he fits with what they have. I don't see him being better than Jackson in 2-3 years but he may better than him next season but comparing them is difficult since they play entirely different styles.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It's a weird situation because if he were 2-3 inches shorter or 2-3 inches taller then he'd be a player the Suns shouldn't pass on but as is, I don't think he fits with what they have. I don't see him being better than Jackson in 2-3 years but he may better than him next season but comparing them is difficult since they play entirely different styles.

I just see Jackson, Booker and Doncic all playing together. Jackson takes the toughest defensive assignment of the 1-3 positions. On offense Doncic is the PG, Booker the SG and Jackson the SF. Over time as Jackson and Doncic get stronger they may be able to guard 3s and 4s and that would allow for a 3 and D guard to guard the opposing PG full time. The key to that lineup would be that we also get our hands on a good defensive center to round out the lineup.

 

[SirStefan32]

I don't really think that the height is relevant. If he can play the point at 6'4, he can play point at 6'8, or however tall he is. My European contacts claim that he is closer to 6'6 than 6'8 (198-199 cm), but he can either play the point or he can't regardless of the height. If anything, his height makes him more versatile. I just don't know who the hell would guard anybody in the Doncic/Booker/Warren lineup, or even in the Payton/Booker/Doncic lineup. Offensively, Doncic can play any of the positions and be just fine- Hell, I'd love to see Payton/Booker/Doncic, and Doncic/Booker/Warren (or Jackson) lineup. With so many holes up front, I just can't see how you pass on one of the bigs.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't really think that the height is relevant. If he can play the point at 6'4, he can play point at 6'8, or however tall he is. My European contacts claim that he is closer to 6'6 than 6'8 (198-199 cm), but he can either play the point or he can't regardless of the height. If anything, his height makes him more versatile. I just don't know who the hell would guard anybody in the Doncic/Booker/Warren lineup, or even in the Payton/Booker/Doncic lineup. Offensively, Doncic can play any of the positions and be just fine- Hell, I'd love to see Payton/Booker/Doncic, and Doncic/Booker/Warren (or Jackson) lineup. With so many holes up front, I just can't see how you pass on one of the bigs.

I think once Doncic starts individual workouts with NBA teams there will be a lot more clarity.

If he is a PG, height shouldn't be a problem.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I don't really think that the height is relevant. If he can play the point at 6'4, he can play point at 6'8, or however tall he is. My European contacts claim that he is closer to 6'6 than 6'8 (198-199 cm), but he can either play the point or he can't regardless of the height. If anything, his height makes him more versatile. I just don't know who the hell would guard anybody in the Doncic/Booker/Warren lineup, or even in the Payton/Booker/Doncic lineup. Offensively, Doncic can play any of the positions and be just fine- Hell, I'd love to see Payton/Booker/Doncic, and Doncic/Booker/Warren (or Jackson) lineup. With so many holes up front, I just can't see how you pass on one of the bigs.

I don’t see his height as a hindrance to playing pg. I am just not sure he is one. His game is so similar to Booker in his strengths and weaknesses, I just think for him to play the point is not his natural position. He is a SG.

 

[SirStefan32]

I don’t see his height as a hindrance to playing pg. I am just not sure he is one. His game is so similar to Booker in his strengths and weaknesses, I just think for him to play the point is not his natural position. He is a SG.

That's a valid argument, though I will disagree. I've seen him play, and he is a better play maker than Goran Dragic right now. You can call him a PG, SG, or SF, but he does what point guards do.

 

[Phrazbit]

Cheese, I feel like you've gotten yourself a bit emotionally wrapped up in the Doncic debate. The more I see of him the more impressed I am. He doesn't have a 40 inch vertical but he is certainly athletic, he has thrown down some vicious dunks, especially when you consider he is doing it against guys 10 years his senior. He is a terrific passer, he regularly pushes the pace in transition, charging like a bull, what I like the most about him is that he is not afraid of contact. The way he plays he will draw a lot of fouls, just from a physical, aggressive viewpoint, he is the anti-Bender.

I've mentioned before, I wasn't worried about Josh Jackson when he was playing like ass early in the year because you still saw him being active and aggressive, you couldn't ignore his presence. IMO, Doncic has that same energy and a ton of natural skill.

Just to be clear though... no freaking way I'd take him over Ayton.

 

[Chaplin]

No Ayton, then my pick for now is Bagley.

 

[JCSunsfan]

No Ayton, then my pick for now is Bagley.

Suns get second pick. Ayton is gone. Bagley? I assume this is what you are saying.

Tough for me. Bagley, Young or Doncic. I probably go umm. Young. But Bagley is really tempting.

 

[Chaplin]

Suns get second pick. Ayton is gone. Bagley? I assume this is what you are saying.

Tough for me. Bagley, Young or Doncic. I probably go umm. Young. But Bagley is really tempting.

Not sold on Young at #2.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Not sold on Young at #2.

Agree. My inclination is:

Ayton
Bagley
Doncic
Bamba/Porter
JJJ
Young (late season swoon has had a profound impact on me - came from nowhere, exploded on scene, then faded)

 

[leclerc]

If Doncic is best euro prospect ever that means he'll be better than Dirk? I'm okay with that if that how it plays out. So far I'm sceptical still.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Agree. My inclination is:

Ayton
Bagley
Doncic
Bamba/Porter
JJJ
Young (late season swoon has had a profound impact on me - came from nowhere, exploded on scene, then faded)

I get the disenchantment with Young. Hopefully a bunch of teams feel the same way, so we can move up and nab him at 7 or so.

 

[SirStefan32]

If Doncic is best euro prospect ever that means he'll be better than Dirk? I'm okay with that if that how it plays out. So far I'm sceptical still.

Well, I think they are very different players. Doncic is a guard/ point forward, while Dirk is a legitimate seven-footer who was able to play like a guard. I think Drazen Petrovic is a better comparison (May he rest in peace.)
This is all referring to the best-case scenario, in my opinion, though. I don't think he'll be quite that good.

 

[JCSunsfan]

OK. Lets look at 3 point shooting in the top 7.

1. Ayton. .364 on 1 attempt per game.
2. Doncic. .311 on 4.8 per game.
3. Bagley. .370 on 1.9 per game.
4. Young. .362 on 10.3 pg wow.
5. Porter NA
6. Jackson. .396 on 1.2 per game.
7. Bamba. .280 on 1.7 per game.

Worst outside shooter. Bamba by far.
Close second to worst. Doncic. And his 3 point shooting percentage has dropped every year.
Bagley is bagged for his shooting, but its right there with everyone else.
Jackson is good but 1.2 is not that many pg.

I do not get why Doncic is considered a good 3pt shooter. He is bad and getting worse. As his attempts go up, his efficiency drops. Thats not a good sign. Young is a significantly better three point shooter on twice as many attempts per game and against defenses that game plan for him alone. I think I would take Young over Doncic just looking at the numbers. Doncic is a good passer but not better than Young. He is a good ball-handler but not better than Young. Young is a better shooter from the three by a wide margin.

So. My draft order right now would be.

1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3 Young
4. Jackson
5. Doncic
6. Porter
7. Bamba

 

[Hoop Head]

OK. Lets look at 3 point shooting in the top 7.

1. Ayton. .364 on 1 attempt per game.
2. Doncic. .311 on 4.8 per game.
3. Bagley. .370 on 1.9 per game.
4. Young. .362 on 10.3 pg wow.
5. Porter NA
6. Jackson. .396 on 1.2 per game.
7. Bamba. .280 on 1.7 per game.

Worst shooter. Bamba by far.
Close second to worst. Doncic. And his 3 point shooting percentage has dropped every year.
Bagley is bagged for his shooting, but its right there with everyone else.
Jackson is good but 1.2 is not that many pg.

I do not get why Doncic is considered a good shooter. He is bad and getting worse. As his attempts go up, his efficiency drops. Thats not a good sign.

One thing to be considered is the length of 3's for Doncic compared to the NCAA players. The 3pt line in Euroleague is 6.75 meters (22 feet and 2 inches) compared to 6.32 meters (20 feet 9 inches) in the NCAA and 7.24 meters in the NBA (23 feet 9 inches). The 3's that Doncic is taking are closer to NBA 3's. I don't expect Bamba, Ayton, Jackson, or Bagley to be taking a lot of 3's in the NBA. They don't take many now in college while Doncic, Porter, and Young should be taking a good amount.

 

[JCSunsfan]

One thing to be considered is the length of 3's for Doncic compared to the NCAA players. The 3pt line in Euroleague is 6.75 meters (22 feet and 2 inches) compared to 6.32 meters (20 feet 9 inches) in the NCAA and 7.24 meters in the NBA (23 feet 9 inches). The 3's that Doncic is taking are closer to NBA 3's. I don't expect Bamba, Ayton, Jackson, or Bagley to be taking a lot of 3's in the NBA. They don't take many now in college while Doncic, Porter, and Young should be taking a good amount.

That means nothing when comparing Young and Doncic. Everyone knows Young has NBA three range. And players that shoot the college or Euro three usually adapt pretty well to the NBA three. Every one of those guys is going to be shooting it.

I am having a hard time going against the hype on Doncic, because what I am seeing must be wrong if everyone else loves him so much. But for the life of me I cannot see why Mikal Bridges should not be a better nba pro than Doncic.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/luka-doncic-1.html

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That means nothing when comparing Young and Doncic. Everyone knows Young has NBA three range. And players that shoot the college or Euro three usually adapt pretty well to the NBA three. Every one of those guys is going to be shooting it.

I am having a hard time going against the hype on Doncic, because what I am seeing must be wrong if everyone else loves him so much. But for the life of me I cannot see why Mikal Bridges should not be a better nba pro than Doncic.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/luka-doncic-1.html

Because basketball is a game of skill. I am not suggesting that Mikal doesn't have said skills, but not nearly the level of skill that Doncic has. Bridges will almost certainly be a better defender than Doncic, but Doncic's ball handling, play-making and offensive IQ are at a completely different level than Mikal's are.

As for shooting I don't know that anyone is suggesting that Doncic is a better shooting prospect than Young is. Young almost exclusively takes NBA length threes and is making nearly 40% of them. I do however believe that Doncic will be a good shooter in the NBA. It will help him to have both better players around him and generally more spacing and a faster paced/more free flowing style of play in the NBA. Him having a player like Booker on his team is going to get him plenty of open looks from 3.

 

[SirStefan32]

I am worried about a dozen things with Doncic, but shooting is not one of them. He will end up being a very good shooter. I am, however, glad that people are finally seeing that he is not a deadly long-range jump-shooter right now. I remember just a month or two ago everyone talking about how great of a shooter he was already, and that is simply not true.

 

[Mainstreet]

Some team is going to be very happy with Mikal Bridges. He reminds me a bit like Tatum. Might be one of the safer picks.

 

[leclerc]

Hope we can get Bridges somehow.

 

[Cheesebeef]

okay... so, Stef said there are reports that Doncic is more 6'6 than 6'8... maybe I've been thinking about him a little wrong. Would that put him more in the James Harden mode? Harden's not a super-athlete but he IS athletic and has a craftiness to his game. Maybe that's the best comparison, high ceiling-wise for Doncic?