2019 1st round pick is QB Kyler Murray

[kerouac9]

Yeah but offensive line. And Zeke.

David Johnson isn’t just as good as Zeke? Dak was also a third-round pick.

RG3 had 3200 passing yards, 20TDs, 5 INTs, plus 815 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs as a rook. That should be the standard for a highly drafted dual threat QB with an innovative playcaller.

Alfred Morris was Washington’s leading rusher; Josh Morgan and Pierre Garçon were the leading receivers. Washington’s defense was 22nd in the league.

#whynotus

 

[TJ]

That would be about as good as Mayfield

Less passing TDs than Baker and Baker only started 13 games last season. I’m assuming PFF is accounting for KM starting 16 games? Plus, for a DT-QB, I expect him to have closer to 700 yards rushing, which would be about 44 yards/game.

 

[Krangodnzr]

David Johnson isn’t just as good as Zeke? Dak was also a third-round pick.

RG3 had 3200 passing yards, 20TDs, 5 INTs, plus 815 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs as a rook. That should be the standard for a highly drafted dual threat QB with an innovative playcaller.

Alfred Morris was Washington’s leading rusher; Josh Morgan and Pierre Garçon were the leading receivers. Washington’s defense was 22nd in the league.

#whynotus

I think Murray can. I do.

But the offensive line is worse for the Cardinals than in most of these examples.

At best the Cardinals offensive line can be league average. I just hope the line stays healthy mainly.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I expect a bit more, but around my expectations. I expect between 20 and 26 passing TDs.

I think Murray is going to throw a lot of picks. 15 should be about right. Look at his numbers from TAMU, he threw 7 picks and didn't even play that much.

I think he rushes for more than 475 yards, and has more TDs than 3. I'd say probably around 600 and 6 TDs.

So.....4400 yards total, between 26-32 total TDs, 15-18 INTs.

While I am not going to go out on a limb and say he throws fewer picks than that, I also have to refute the idea that we should be using his A&M stats as reference. That was his true freshman year and that was 4 years ago. I would imagine that he is a far better player now than he was at that point and he is likely miles better at reading defenses now.

 

[Solar7]

I feel like I'm in crazy town taking crazy pills when I agree with @Krangthebrain and @TJ and @kerouac9 are the two I don't see eye to eye here with.

Maybe it's just a matter of real expectations vs. baseline definitions of "success," but for the life of me I don't know how we can make comparisons to Dak or RG3 and consider it the baseline for success. Sure, lofty expectations have been set by Club Kyler, but that doesn't mean that having the best rookie season ever is the only way to see the bright side in future development for the player.

In both the situation of Dak and RG3, they inherited rosters with decent-to-great offensive line play and running backs that took the pressure off of them. But pointing to RG3's 700 yard rushing is scary, considering it's what scuttled his career.

Let's come back to Earth guys. Kyler is in a rocky situation with a bad offensive line, rookie receivers, and an RB that we're all hoping rounds back into form.

Even if Kyler falls out of the top ten best rookie QB performances of the past 20 years or so, it won't mean it was because he was terrible. Now, we'll see what he becomes, but have patience.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I feel like I'm in crazy town taking crazy pills when I agree with @Krangthebrain and @TJ and @kerouac9 are the two I don't see eye to eye here with.

Maybe it's just a matter of real expectations vs. baseline definitions of "success," but for the life of me I don't know how we can make comparisons to Dak or RG3 and consider it the baseline for success. Sure, lofty expectations have been set by Club Kyler, but that doesn't mean that having the best rookie season ever is the only way to see the bright side in future development for the player.

In both the situation of Dak and RG3, they inherited rosters with decent-to-great offensive line play and running backs that took the pressure off of them. But pointing to RG3's 700 yard rushing is scary, considering it's what scuttled his career.

Let's come back to Earth guys. Kyler is in a rocky situation with a bad offensive line, rookie receivers, and an RB that we're all hoping rounds back into form.

Even if Kyler falls out of the top ten best rookie QB performances of the past 20 years or so, it won't mean it was because he was terrible. Now, we'll see what he becomes, but have patience.

I dont know if we fully agree. I think Murray IS going to have a top ten all time rookie season, obviously barring health because that's always the caveat for any player.

I just think he's going to throw quite a few picks and will have a game or two of struggles.

What's the path to Murray having an amazing rookie season? Offensive line produces average performance, Larry maintains level of play, Kirk continues improving, DJ plays better, and one of the rookies becomes a steady contributor. This isnt a crazy thing to ask for.

It also assumes that K2 can call a game.

I'm pretty certain the defense is going to at least be solid.

 

[Solar7]

I dont know if we fully agree. I think Murray IS going to have a top ten all time rookie season, obviously barring health because that's always the caveat for any player.

I just think he's going to throw quite a few picks and will have a game or two of struggles.

What's the path to Murray having an amazing rookie season? Offensive line produces average performance, Larry maintains level of play, Kirk continues improving, DJ plays better, and one of the rookies becomes a steady contributor. This isnt a crazy thing to ask for.

It also assumes that K2 can call a game.

I'm pretty certain the defense is going to at least be solid.

Nah, I get it, I just think you've had unbridled optimism all along, you think Kyler is the greatest to come out almost ever, and you've stood by it. For two other guys who have shared some of my skepticism though, I'm surprised they're setting that benchmark.

Like, at the end of the day, I think Kyler is gonna throw for sub-3,000, rush around 500 yards, and be responsible for around 20 TDs all-in, along with probably 15 INTs. If he starts all 16 games, that's not a very good year. But anything he does above that benchmark is going to start to make me more and more of a believer.

I can't understand how I'd be disappointed if he put up a top-ten rookie QB season in almost any way.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Nah, I get it, I just think you've had unbridled optimism all along, you think Kyler is the greatest to come out almost ever, and you've stood by it. For two other guys who have shared some of my skepticism though, I'm surprised they're setting that benchmark.

Like, at the end of the day, I think Kyler is gonna throw for sub-3,000, rush around 500 yards, and be responsible for around 20 TDs all-in, along with probably 15 INTs. If he starts all 16 games, that's not a very good year. But anything he does above that benchmark is going to start to make me more and more of a believer.

I can't understand how I'd be disappointed if he put up a top-ten rookie QB season in almost any way.

So you basically think he is going to put up Josh Rosen numbers?

 

[Dr. Jones]

PFF's Fantasy Football Playbook came out today.

Currently they have Murray as a Round 10 pick with these projections:

Yards: 3830 TDs 22 INT: 15 Sacks: 45.6 Rushing: 475 yards TD: 3

Take the over my friends......

 

[kerouac9]

I feel like I'm in crazy town taking crazy pills when I agree with @Krangthebrain and @TJ and @kerouac9 are the two I don't see eye to eye here with.

Maybe it's just a matter of real expectations vs. baseline definitions of "success," but for the life of me I don't know how we can make comparisons to Dak or RG3 and consider it the baseline for success. Sure, lofty expectations have been set by Club Kyler, but that doesn't mean that having the best rookie season ever is the only way to see the bright side in future development for the player.

In both the situation of Dak and RG3, they inherited rosters with decent-to-great offensive line play and running backs that took the pressure off of them. But pointing to RG3's 700 yard rushing is scary, considering it's what scuttled his career.

Let's come back to Earth guys. Kyler is in a rocky situation with a bad offensive line, rookie receivers, and an RB that we're all hoping rounds back into form.

Even if Kyler falls out of the top ten best rookie QB performances of the past 20 years or so, it won't mean it was because he was terrible. Now, we'll see what he becomes, but have patience.

Washington's offensive line RG3's rookie season had one first-round pick in Trent Williams, a second round pick in Chris Chester, and no one else who was drafted before the 4th round. Alfred Morris was a rookie 6th round pick in RG3's rookie season.

The whole point in getting a dual threat QB is that it takes the pressure off the offensive line because the QB can protect himself with his feet.

The whole point of getting an innovative offensive playcaller is that you can better game plan around offensive line deficiencies.

I'm interested in understanding why people think that Murray is going to throw a lot of picks as a rookie. In general, mobile rookies don't throw a ton of INTs, because they can buy time in and around the pocket until a clean throw opens up. They've learned (for better or worse) that it's better to wait a moment until a guy is open-open.

I'd also argue that if Kingsbury is installing a quick-passing, fast-break offense that we anticipate, Kyler is going to have 1-2 extremely open reads and then he'll be running. Rookie pocket QBs who throw a lot of picks are generally waiting for guys to get open or throwing more difficult routes that they could in college.

For reference, I looked back at some key rookie seasons since Tim Tebow's rookie year for mobile/dual threat QBs (DTs) and Pocket Passers (PPs) to see what we could expect. Obviously, no comparison is perfect, but consider it a broader sample:

Name Year QB Style Passes Passing Yards YPA Passing DVOA QBR Passing TD INT Rushes Rushing Yards Rushing TD Rushing DVOA Total Yards Total TDs
Baker Mayfield 2018 DT 509 3549 7.0 8.1% 53.9 27 14 25 143 0 -28.70% 3692 27
Sam Darnold 2018 PP 445 2653 6.0 -15.1% 48.4 17 9 30 146 1 0.30% 2799 18
Josh Allen 2018 DT 350 1840 5.3 -35.9% 52 10 11 81 638 8 33.40% 2478 18
Josh Rosen 2018 PP 438 1949 4.4 -53.0% 26.1 11 14 15 156 0 30.80% 2105 11
Mitchell Trubisky 2017 DT 362 1981 5.5 -16.8% 32.4 7 7 33 255 2 22.00% 2236 9
Deshaun Watson 2017 DT 221 1583 7.2 23.1% 83.5 19 6 51 363 6 46.10% 1946 25
Carson Wentz 2016 DT 641 3580 5.6 -12.0% 52.8 16 14 33 154 2 -3.60% 3734 18
Dak Prescott 2016 DT 483 3527 7.3 28.9% 81.5 23 4 44 301 6 46.70% 3828 29
Jameis Winston 2015 PP 560 3828 6.8 2.1% 58.6 22 15 41 223 6 7.60% 4051 28
Marcus Mariota 2015 DT 407 2551 6.3 -13.2% 61 19 10 32 253 2 -0.60% 2804 21
Blake Bortles 2014 DT 530 2554 4.8 -40.7% 21.9 11 16 52 422 0 24.70% 2976 11
Teddy Bridgewater 2014 PP 436 2656 6.1 -16.9% 50.2 14 11 40 220 1 -8.50% 2876 15
Derek Carr 2014 PP 622 3071 4.9 -14.9% 38.4 21 12 18 106 0 28.40% 3177 21
E.J. Manuel 2013 PP 335 1814 5.4 -19.9% 42.3 11 9 39 217 2 11.00% 2031 13
Geno Smith 2013 PP 485 2739 5.6 -23.6% 35.9 12 21 60 388 6 9.50% 3127 18
Mike Glennon 2013 PP 459 2260 4.9 -7.7% 45.6 19 9 15 68 9 -45.60% 2328 28
Andrew Luck 2012 DT 622 4089 6.6 -5.1% 65 23 17 42 270 5 41.00% 4359 28
Robert Griffin III 2012 DT 425 2961 7.0 16.6% 71.4 20 5 110 816 7 7.80% 3777 27
Ryan Tannehilll 2012 DT 517 3069 5.9 -9.9% 52.3 12 13 33 216 2 -11.00% 3285 14
Brandon Weeden 2012 PP 546 3185 5.8 -19.4% 26.6 14 17 21 116 0 8.00% 3301 14
Russell Wilson 2012 DT 432 2935 6.8 19.7% 69.6 26 9 82 501 4 22.30% 3436 30
Cam Newton 2011 DT 551 3810 6.9 0.8% 55 21 17 117 718 14 14.50% 4528 35
Blaine Gabbert 2011 DT 457 1888 4.1 -46.5% 20.6 12 11 29 107 0 -38.90% 1995 12
Christian Ponder 2011 PP 321 1698 5.3 -30.2% 33.7 13 12 25 217 0 36.50% 1915 13
Andy Dalton 2011 PP 540 3224 6.0 5.6% 45.6 20 13 29 163 1 -14.60% 3387 21
Sam Bradford 2010 PP 622 3262 5.2 -15.6% 41.5 18 13 17 72 1 -6.00% 3334 19
MEAN DT
14 464 2787 6.0 -8.6% 52.9 17.2 11 53 351 3.9 9.1% 3138 21

MEAN PP
12 484 2695 5.6 -17.4% 41.1 16 13 29 174 2.3 4.8% 2869 18

MEAN ROOKIE
474 2779 5.9 -11.2% 48.68 16.8 11.9 42.8 278.8 3.3 9.0% 3058 20

Sorry the formatting is bad. I don't know if you can build a table in this format. Hopefully, you can see the key takeaway here (for me): Dual threat rookie's on average have a better passing DVOA (-17.4% vs -8.6%) and 11+ point advantage in QBR (as calculated by Football Outsiders).

Interestingly, there isn't a meaningful difference in TDs.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Take the over my friends......

I tend to agree. I think many are being pretty conservative with Murray. Except @Solar7....2800 yards passing? Rosen would've come close if he had played 16 games, and Rosen was posting well below average passing yards per game, with a very conservative offense.

I think most of us and most of the media agree that K2 should be able to field a more effective offense than Mike McCoy did. It's just not really conceivable that the offense won't be better.

3830 = 239 yards per game
Sub 3000 yards (I went with 2900 yards) = 181 yards per game

Rosen threw 11 TDs per game which is .84 TDs per game
If Murray averages a total of 20 TDs, that is 1.25 TDs per game

I just don't see it. It would mean that the offense would only marginally improve, unless you think that DJ is rushing for 1800 yards.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Bring on the real football. This 'he said, she said all talk' justification banter wore off posts ago. Everyone needs to kick back and find something interesting (a cold one works in the summer, and I know Zona is hot like Texas) which does not have that rabid parrot on the helmet and chill till something actually happens worth mentioning. I think people are paraphrasing the same arguments... ps, Cousins sucks and so does Josh Allen and boy did we dodge a bullet or two there lol

 

[Krangodnzr]

L

Bring on the real football. This 'he said, she said all talk' justification banter wore off posts ago. Everyone needs to kick back and find something interesting (a cold one works in the summer, and I know Zona is hot like Texas) which does not have that rabid parrot on the helmet and chill till something actually happens worth mentioning. I think people are paraphrasing the same arguments... ps, Cousins sucks and so does Josh Allen and boy did we dodge a bullet or two there lol

I REALLY hope that the reports that the Cardinals loved Josh Allen weren't true. His accuracy issues are going to be REALLY hard to fix.

I get falling in love with the person (sort of like Gettlemen with Daniel Jones) but if you turned on tape of him at Wyoming, it was obvious he wasn't accurate enough to be a franchise QB.

 

[Solar7]

So you basically think he is going to put up Josh Rosen numbers?

I don't think he'll play all 16 games (this isn't really a "Kyler is injury prone" thing, it's more "this is the NFL, people miss games" thing). Less than half the league's QBs started every game last year.

I tend to agree. I think many are being pretty conservative with Murray. Except @Solar7....2800 yards passing? Rosen would've come close if he had played 16 games, and Rosen was posting well below average passing yards per game, with a very conservative offense.

I think most of us and most of the media agree that K2 should be able to field a more effective offense than Mike McCoy did. It's just not really conceivable that the offense won't be better.

3830 = 239 yards per game
Sub 3000 yards (I went with 2900 yards) = 181 yards per game

Rosen threw 11 TDs per game which is .84 TDs per game
If Murray averages a total of 20 TDs, that is 1.25 TDs per game

I just don't see it. It would mean that the offense would only marginally improve, unless you think that DJ is rushing for 1800 yards.

21 QBs threw for more than 3,000 yards last year, but I don't think Kyler will do much better than middle of the pack. Add in that he'll have plays where passing yardage disappears in lieu of rushing yards, and that's what I think is a reasonable mid-level expectation for Kyler.

I don't think the offense will be that much better, I'm sorry. I expect a ton of growing pains in the first quarter of the season with so much youth, and then getting into the meat of the schedule in the second half, we'll get dominated by better teams.

My hope, of course, is for the team to exceed these thoughts. There will probably be games where we come out and look like garbage, and games where we look like world-beaters. That's the NFL. My stance is really just that @Chris_Sanders's projection from that post would be something I would be very happy with. (Yards: 3830 TDs 22 INT: 15 Sacks: 45.6 Rushing: 475 yards TD: 3)

Those numbers would put him in the top half of QBs last year.

 

[Solar7]

@kerouac9, I won't quote the entire thing, since it's so large, but a pick a game in a brand new, experimental NFL offense combined with a rookie QB and tons of youth at receiver just doesn't seem very extreme to me. There's a lot of talk about Kyler not being a "rushing QB," and this offense will likely be predicated on a fair amount of passing and attempts.

Darnold and Mayfield threw for similar numbers when it came to interceptions.

 

[kerouac9]

@kerouac9, I won't quote the entire thing, since it's so large, but a pick a game in a brand new, experimental NFL offense combined with a rookie QB and tons of youth at receiver just doesn't seem very extreme to me. There's a lot of talk about Kyler not being a "rushing QB," and this offense will likely be predicated on a fair amount of passing and attempts.

Darnold and Mayfield threw for similar numbers when it came to interceptions.

I think that everyone should expect Murray to outperform Mayfield this season. If you really think that experience/college starts don't matter, then Kyler should crush the 64% Comp/5.6% TD/2.9% INT rate of Mayfield last year.

 

[Skeeber33]

Air raid offensive makes up for a bad offensive line. It's predicated on making quick decisions- not sitting back alot. Now- on plays that Kyler needs more time, he has the speed and quickness to buy the extra 2-3 seconds. But a bad offensive line means nothing to me. Texas tech had a below average line- but it didn't matter. They consistently set records. I don't want to hear about how poopy the defenses in the big 12 are....these offenses are impossible to stop if ran right.

I also think people are underestimating the fact that Kyler knows the system already. He learned it from baker and Lincoln for 2 years and ran it himself for a year. It's an extremely difficult system to run- and the fact he could probably teach it will save 2-3 years it would have taken Rosen to master it. If Kyler had never ran this system- I wouldn't be confident. But the dude has it mastered....he doesn't have to think.l as it's muscle memory at this point.

I do think Kyler will have quite a few of interceptions as he tends to float balls over the middle...but imo- he should push 4k yards fairly easily.

 

[Solar7]

I think that everyone should expect Murray to outperform Mayfield this season. If you really think that experience/college starts don't matter, then Kyler should crush the 64% Comp/5.6% TD/2.9% INT rate of Mayfield last year.

I personally don't think that, so...?

Unless we're just alluding to Club Kyler, but even still.

Hell, for me, the verdict is out on Baker until the guy shows what he can do when he isn't coming from behind.

 

[Jetstream Green]

L


I REALLY hope that the reports that the Cardinals loved Josh Allen weren't true. His accuracy issues are going to be REALLY hard to fix.

I get falling in love with the person (sort of like Gettlemen with Daniel Jones) but if you turned on tape of him at Wyoming, it was obvious he wasn't accurate enough to be a franchise QB.

The guy was not even accurate in high school, throwing still under a 60% completion ratio... kid out of Oklahoma St. was a better prospect

 

[slanidrac16]

I see Murray’s biggest asset as his ability to extend plays. His speed will allow him to escape most linemen ( not all the time). when you watch him at OU his extended plays allowed him to find a wide open wr. Not only does he have the ability to get rid of the ball quickly he also has the arm strength to get the ball downfield. It ain’t all going to a bed of roses but it’s sure to be better than last year.

One other thing. Murray has a HUGE advantage stepping into an offense he is totally familiar with. Compare that with Jamieson who is going to struggle under Arians much like Palmer did.

 

[Ronin]

NFL experts tout rookie Murray as star for years to come

https://arizonasports.com/story/2005939/nfl-experts-tout-rookie-murray-as-star-for-years-to-come/

 

[kerouac9]

https://arizonasports.com/story/2005939/nfl-experts-tout-rookie-murray-as-star-for-years-to-come/

Lance Zierlein is the only one of those “experts” I’d ever heard of.

 

[PACardsFan]

It's absurd to think that we won't have a considerably more productive offense this year than last. And I emphasize considerably. There will be games this year when we may have more 1st downs in a quarter than we had in an entire game last year. I do agree with those that say Murray will throw more picks than he's accustomed to. The youth at WR will result in there being some disconnects between the WR's & Murray. I also expect young WR's to drop their share of passes also. Even Fitz had only an average rookie season compared to what came afterwards. But, bottom line, the Cardinal's offense last year was the worst I had ever seen since 1964, so it BETTER be significantly improved. If it's remotely as bad, then the KK hire was a DREADFUL one.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Lance Zierlein is the only one of those “experts” I’d ever heard of.

Havent heard of Dan Graziano? Hes written for ESPN for maybe a decade.

Jason Reid is the senior writer at the Undefeated.

You know Gil Brandt (maybe most legendary personnel guy ever) said the same thing about Murray.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Lance Zierlein is the only one of those “experts” I’d ever heard of.

It's not crazy to say things. I've see enough experts say that Murray is going to be a superstar.