Who’s our next qb?

[BritCard]

That's just blatantly false, which it's hard to believe you don't realize if you actually watched him play.

As The Athletic's Jacob Robinson noted today, "The sample size is tiny — Willis only started three games for the Packers, though he attempted a pass in 10 — yet he has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, based on advanced metrics."

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Murray this season was 38th in success rate and 27th in EPA/play. Last season he was 13th in success rate and 21st in EPA/play.

In the last two years, Willis has completed 78.7% of his passes at 10.9 y/a, 13.9 y/c, with a passer rating of 134.6. Murray has completed 68.7% of his passes at 6.9 y/a and 10.0 y/c, with a passer rating of 92.4.

Harp all you want about the small sample size, but in that time Willis' play was WAY, WAY better than an average Murray start. In fact I'd say he's in pretty good company on the above list.

I covered that, Daves. With such a small sample size, it's easy to look good in advanced metrics. In the same way, when you look at the quarterback stats for a year, you see some wide receiver in the top five because he threw 3 passes for 65 yards on trick plays.

In all his time at Green Bay, starts or not, he's made about two games' worth of pass attempts. It's really not difficult for a quarterback to have good advanced stats in such a small sample size. In fact, I'm sure if we go back and took two of Jacoby Brissett's games, especially early last season when the offense was on fire and we were losing games by one score, you can find that he had great advanced metrics like this in a limited sample size.

You can do the same thing with Kyler. In most seasons, you can probably find a 2-game sample size where he was top 10 or top 5 in EPA. The sample size is just far too small to be of any value. It's just noise.

You make Malik Willis the starter somewhere. Make him have to throw the ball 30+ times a game. Put all the pressure on him as the guy. And you'll soon see what he really is.

 

[BritCard]

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[BritCard]

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[Stout]

I thought I would add a little more to strengthen the argument for Willis. This is from ESPN:

“In Green Bay, Willis showed some of the talent that got him drafted in Round 3 in 2022. In 11 games, Willis has 42 carries for 261 yards and three scores. That 6.2 yards-per-rush mark would be fourth behind Murray, Baker Mayfield and Spencer Rattler over the past two seasons among passers with 100-plus dropbacks. Willis' 13% scramble rate and 11.8% explosive run rate would lead all QBs. This guy is a legitimate threat with the ball.”

“His 9.2 yards per dropback is also miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 7.7). And his 86.3 total QBR is miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 69.9).”

BritCard is arguing against better knowledge of the situation.

I mean, this isn't a brag to hang your hat on, man.

 

[BritCard]

I mean, this isn't a brag to hang your hat on, man.

The article says his YPC is behind Murray and he has 2 games worth of passing attempts in 2 years which are statistically very like Murray.

I just can't get my head around eating a bunch of dead cap and paying to bring in a guy who's ceiling is Kyler Murray and floor is Justin Fields.

 

[slanidrac16]

More on Willis from The Athletic on December 31st:

"How Malik Willis revived his career with the Packers: ‘I’d put him up against anybody’" -Matt LaFleur
Excerpts:

Yeah but what does Matt LaFleur know?

 

[Chopper0080]

That's just blatantly false, which it's hard to believe you don't realize if you actually watched him play.

As The Athletic's Jacob Robinson noted today, "The sample size is tiny — Willis only started three games for the Packers, though he attempted a pass in 10 — yet he has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, based on advanced metrics."

You must be registered for see images attach

Murray this season was 38th in success rate and 27th in EPA/play. Last season he was 13th in success rate and 21st in EPA/play.

In the last two years, Willis has completed 78.7% of his passes at 10.9 y/a, 13.9 y/c, with a passer rating of 134.6. Murray has completed 68.7% of his passes at 6.9 y/a and 10.0 y/c, with a passer rating of 92.4.

Harp all you want about the small sample size, but in that time Willis' play was WAY, WAY better than an average Murray start. In fact I'd say he's in pretty good company on the above list.

It's not harping on small sample size, it is understanding that small sample sizes are extremely fragile. This is the definition of buying high. He was a 3rd round pick. He was traded for a 7th round pick. Even in that article it said how the offense flipped to preventing Willis from having to throw a lot. In the one game he had to throw a lot, he got knocked out of the game by a bad Ravens pass rush.

The level of risk with him is purely based upon what he costs. If you get him for under 10 mil, great. But if the only way to get him is to give him a multi year deal at a large amount of money...it's potentially another Kyler situation.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yeah but what does Matt LaFleur know?

Does that mean you also think Darius Robinson is a good player? At some point, you have to recognize some of this is standard coach speak.

 

[slanidrac16]

Does that mean you also think Darius Robinson is a good player? At some point, you have to recognize some of this is standard coach speak.

If our LaFleur believes Willis is his guy, I’ll back him. All of ML’s decisions at this point deserves the benefit of our doubt.
What does Matt LaFleur have to gain by talking up his back up qb?

 

[Chopper0080]

If our LaFleur believes Willis is his guy, I’ll back him. All of ML’s decisions at this point deserves the benefit of our doubt.
What does Matt LaFleur have to gain by talking up his back up qb?

Everything. Is Willis goes to Green Bay and then two years later gets a nice multi-year contract it's going to encourage other young QBs to go to GB. Andy Reid did this for years. The Cardinals even signed one in Kevin Kolb. Coaches only gain from talking up players unless they are flat out lying. Matt saying Willis is as good as any QB is the same as Gannon saying the Cardinals had the right players in the room to win games. That's the mindset of next man up and going to war with your guys.

 

[Harry]

We can draft Trey Lance's brother too.

Lance is pretty scary I get the upside he's got good size a strong arm and he can run. But he hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 3 NFL seasons, all 5 in his career as a rookie. And the fact that Shanahan gave up on him has to be a concern he's one of the better guys in the league with QB's.

But for a reasonable deal I guess it's worth a chance if the assumption is JB is the starter and you hope you're drafting your QBOTF either this year or next. The big issue I always had with Lance is the same one with the Colts guy, the way he runs it's when not if he gets hurt again. If you can get him to slide, it changes all sorts of things with him. Same problem I have with Dart, had a really nice rookie year but the Giants figured it out as the season went on he takes so many big hits because he won't protect himself, it's a huge concern.

His brother is worth having

 

[football karma]

If you get him for under 10 mil, great. But if the only way to get him is to give him a multi year deal at a large amount of money...it's potentially another Kyler situation.

i think directionally this is correct -- but $10mm is too low. Justin Fields got $20mm, Daniel Jones got $14 -- thats 20 and 21st overall, just above the rookies

to me, its less about average per year (within reason) and more about can you exit without undue pain after 2 years.

the benefit of Willis is that you should know by the end of 2026 if he works. IF he does work, then the team found their guy. If he doesnt, it likely means the record puts the Cards in the running for one of the 2027 QBs.

 

[netsnjkidd]

Does that mean you also think Darius Robinson is a good player? At some point, you have to recognize some of this is standard coach speak.

Thats public coach speak. If cards target Willis hard as we must get him. That means privately Matt told Mike, Willis is a legit qb in this league. Why would Matt set up his lil bro with qb who can't play.

 

[602 Native]

Cards don’t even know who their coaching staff will be let alone their QB situation for next season.

All that matters is we get rid of K1 and roll the dice without a plan for the most important position in sports. I’m sure everything will work out like it always does for this franchise.

 

[some dumb guy]

All that matters is we get rid of K1

What?? 602, are you ok? Post twice if you need help...LOL

 

[some dumb guy]

Ya know, if we're just going to take a chance that Willis "maybe" the way to go and wait for 2027. Just roll with Murray and JB. Murray might come back with a chip on his shoulder and show he's worth being QB1...if not, roll with JB throwing the ball with a better Oline and some RB's.

some dumb guy is not responsible for anything posted for or against anyone or anything related to the cardinal's organization or its stockholders

 

[cardpa]

Key 2026 Free Agent Quarterbacks (Unrestricted Free Agents)

• Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts): Considered one of the top potential QB free agents for 2026.
• Malik Willis (Green Bay Packers): Listed as a top-tier option in the 2026 market.
• Marcus Mariota (Washington Commanders): Veteran option expected to be available.
• Russell Wilson (New York Giants): Potential veteran free agent.
• Tyrod Taylor (New York Jets): Consistent veteran backup option.
• Joe Flacco (Cincinnati Bengals): Experienced veteran.
• Gardner Minshew (Kansas City Chiefs): Veteran backup.
• Trey Lance: Emerging option.
• Mitchell Trubisky: Experienced depth.
• Zach Wilson (Miami Dolphins): Younger option with starting experience.
• Kenny Pickett (Las Vegas Raiders): Young QB with starting experience.
• 
  
• This is a list of has beens, never beens and sign at your own risk beens. None of these guys are going to make the team better than what we already have on the roster.

 

[azgreg]

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[daves]

The article says his YPC is behind Murray and he has 2 games worth of passing attempts in 2 years

Agreed, and I don't think there's anyone here who doesn't agree that it's a huge stretch to project from that small sample size.

which are statistically very like Murray.

No, they're nothing like Murray's stats. Not even his best 7-game stretch ever at the start of 2021. I don't know why you keep asserting this when it's objectively not even close.

 

[azgreg]

Willis is listed at 6'1". Does that mean he's actually 5'8"?

 

[azgreg]

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[Chopper0080]

Willis is listed at 6'1". Does that mean he's actually 5'8"?

He was 6'0 1/2 at the combine and 6'0 even at the Senior Bowl so maybe.

 

[slanidrac16]

Everything. Is Willis goes to Green Bay and then two years later gets a nice multi-year contract it's going to encourage other young QBs to go to GB. Andy Reid did this for years. The Cardinals even signed one in Kevin Kolb. Coaches only gain from talking up players unless they are flat out lying. Matt saying Willis is as good as any QB is the same as Gannon saying the Cardinals had the right players in the room to win games. That's the mindset of next man up and going to war with your guys.

But if Willis doesn’t excel MATT gains nothing. In fact quite the opposite. Way over thinking this.

 

[TK421]

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I'm assuming the only way this team can afford Willis is if another team would be willing to take on Kyler's contract.

 

[schutd]

But if Willis doesn’t excel MATT gains nothing. In fact quite the opposite. Way over thinking this.

Disagree. He gains a pipeline of young, upside potential having QBs to keep his room stocked while they wait for their shot at a nice payday. I don't think they have to be successful to ensure the supply keeps flowing.