Draft Positioning Week 16

[Harry]

If we end up in the top 5 (and I think we will) you have to at least make a play to go for Mendoza. There is no guarantee we’d be in position to get a top qb in the future without paying a ransom.

They’ll make an offer, but lok at what the Jets can offer to facilitate a quick rebuild. Unless Jets don’t like Mendoza, I can’t see how anyone could beat them to the pick.

 

[Harry]

The success rate of quarterbacks picked in round 2 is horrible.

You mean like Randall Cunningham, Drew Brees & Brett Farve for example. I’d even take Andy Dalton’s career. The exceptions tell you it can be done. Unless Simpson comes out I can’t see how the Cards get a top QB. It’s the old, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. A long odds gamble is the best chance available to the Cards, so you take it!

 

[Stout]

This is objectively simply not correct. Monti is batting slightly above average in the draft

Not even a little bit. What in the heck are you defining as average? We have one top pick--one--who has in any way truly shined.

 

[BACH]

Not even a little bit. What in the heck are you defining as average? We have one top pick--one--who has in any way truly shined.

Look at Harry’s stats on chances of successful draft picks. Monti is slightly ahead of those.

 

[Harry]

Look at Harry’s stats on chances of successful draft picks. Monti is slightly ahead of those.

It’s not just the numbers. I still think with better coaching and only a typical number of injuries, this team would have contended for the playoffs. Also Ossenfort is relatively new. He had to rely mostly on the existing Cards’ front office for his first draft and personnel evaluations. He did let a couple of good players go, but I wonder where that opinion came from. The same would be true of his early forays into free agency. I still think his last draft will prove to be solid. Injuries have impacted it, but we’ve also seen flashes of exceptional play. In rookie players that is a big positive sign for most evaluators. If they can do it, the key then becomes consistency. Lot’s of first round players don’t flash. Sadly Robinson hasn’t flashed, for example. Only Simon, who I said wasn’t worth the pick at the time, has shown little. Connor, of course, was injured. The rest have all had their moments. It looks to me like a much better than average draft. I also think the 2024 draft may eventually be an average draft. The 2023 draft likely produced at least 3 solid players. The article I posted under the Gannon thread lists the Cards’ possible HC opening as a good job despite the QB mess because of the roster. Win most of those close, winnable games and this would have been a different year. 2025 free agents were sound. Ossenfort has shown improvement. Fans need to show patience.

 

[Gandhi]

You mean like Randall Cunningham, Drew Brees & Brett Farve for example. I’d even take Andy Dalton’s career. The exceptions tell you it can be done. Unless Simpson comes out I can’t see how the Cards get a top QB. It’s the old, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. A long odds gamble is the best chance available to the Cards, so you take it!

Right. And then there’s Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer, Kyle Trask, Will Levis and many more. I read an article last year that evaluated all day 2 quarterbacks since 2010 based on multiple data points, and came out with a 15.6% success rate. That number was 38.8% for QB’s drafted in round 1.

Sure, it can absolutely be done to find a good option, but the odds are bad.

 

[Harry]

Right. And then there’s Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer, Kyle Trask, Will Levis and many more. I read an article last year that evaluated all day 2 quarterbacks since 2010 based on multiple data points, and came out with a 15.6% success rate. That number was 38.8% for QB’s drafted in round 1.

Sure, it can absolutely be done to find a good option, but the odds are bad.

Looking at that result, the odds aren’t good anywhere. As I said they’ve got to try for a QB. I don’t think they can offer more in trade. Like Popeye said, “ya pays your money and you takes your chances.” 15% is better than zero. What do you suggest they do and if it’s a trade, what are you endorsing they offer?

 

[Stout]

Look at Harry’s stats on chances of successful draft picks. Monti is slightly ahead of those.

...while hitting more on lesser round players and whiffing almost totally on high picks, and while also counting playing time on an injury-ravaged roster without playing well as "progress." I wholeheartedly disagree with those definitions.

 

[Stout]

It’s not just the numbers. I still think with better coaching and only a typical number of injuries, this team would have contended for the playoffs. Also Ossenfort is relatively new. He had to rely mostly on the existing Cards’ front office for his first draft and personnel evaluations. He did let a couple of good players go, but I wonder where that opinion came from. The same would be true of his early forays into free agency. I still think his last draft will prove to be solid. Injuries have impacted it, but we’ve also seen flashes of exceptional play. In rookie players that is a big positive sign for most evaluators. If they can do it, the key then becomes consistency. Lot’s of first round players don’t flash. Sadly Robinson hasn’t flashed, for example. Only Simon, who I said wasn’t worth the pick at the time, has shown little. Connor, of course, was injured. The rest have all had their moments. It looks to me like a much better than average draft. I also think the 2024 draft may eventually be an average draft. The 2023 draft likely produced at least 3 solid players. The article I posted under the Gannon thread lists the Cards’ possible HC opening as a good job despite the QB mess because of the roster. Win most of those close, winnable games and this would have been a different year. 2025 free agents were sound. Ossenfort has shown improvement. Fans need to show patience.

So if only Monti had a better coach than the ones he hired, and if we had avoided a bunch of injuries, we could have CONTENDED for the playoffs? In year THREE? Talk about low expectations and way not good enough.

 

[Stout]

Looking at that result, the odds aren’t good anywhere. As I said they’ve got to try for a QB. I don’t think they can offer more in trade. Like Popeye said, “ya pays your money and you takes your chances.” 15% is better than zero. What do you suggest they do and if it’s a trade, what are you endorsing they offer?

I'd take a flyer on Allar in the 3rd, if we don't draft one in the 1st.

 

[Gandhi]

What do you suggest they do and if it’s a trade, what are you endorsing they offer?

Personally I would go after Mendoza. He might not be the most exciting prospect, but all he does is win. Against great defenses like Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, and now also Ohio State. And no, he doesn’t blow those defenses out, but he makes the necessary plays, and he does it with subpar (at maximum) around him.

What to offer? Well, as I said in another answer, if the Jets or Browns want him, they have the ammunition to easily outbid the Cardinals, but as you and others have said, you have to try. I would offer up two first, next year's second and if they want some player, I would consider it (except McBride and Budda Baker).

I have been high on Ty Simpson all season. I am big on college starts, so in a way that should rule out Simpson, but there is just something about him that makes it a bit different in my eyes. It’s probably because he has been in a great, close-to-NFL program for several years, but he is simply just more game-smart than every other player - probably since Andrew Luck - with that few starts. I would seriously consider him in the top ten, if I were unable to trade up or down.

 

[TheCardFan]

I'd take a flyer on Allar in the 3rd, if we don't draft one in the 1st.

Agreed - you might get him later.

Allar and Nussmeier are interesting.

2026 is not the year to swing for the fences at QB IMO - so many QB's will be coming out in 2027.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

It might take 2 1sts and McBride to get Mendoza...

 

[Stout]

If the teams below us win enough to tie our records, which ones would we beat on SOS?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If the teams below us win enough to tie our records, which ones would we beat on SOS?

Our SOS is so good, we lose most tiebreakers with the same record. It's really unfortunate.

 

[TheCardFan]

What a poor article at ESPN/Dan Graziano:

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

You must be registered for see images attach

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

The Raiders, Browns, Titans, Giants and Jets are front-runners for the No. 1 pick. What would they do with the top selection?

www.espn.com

 

[dreamcastrocks]

What a poor article at ESPN/Dan Graziano:

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

You must be registered for see images attach

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

The Raiders, Browns, Titans, Giants and Jets are front-runners for the No. 1 pick. What would they do with the top selection?

www.espn.com

Why do you think it is poor? You think Tennessee is going to keep the pick and draft Mendoza?

 

[BullheadCardFan]

It might take 2 1sts and McBride to get Mendoza...

No to Trey, but they can have Budda

 

[Harry]

I'd take a flyer on Allar in the 3rd, if we don't draft one in the 1st.

At the bottom of my ratings.

 

[Harry]

It might take 2 1sts and McBride to get Mendoza...

At least

 

[Cheesebeef]

What a poor article at ESPN/Dan Graziano:

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

You must be registered for see images attach

2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

The Raiders, Browns, Titans, Giants and Jets are front-runners for the No. 1 pick. What would they do with the top selection?

www.espn.com

what's poor about this? You highlight the section where they say Tennessee likely trades the pick because they say a QB has never been taken at 1 two years in a row by the same team, but I don't recall that ever happening before.

 

[Harry]

If the teams below us win enough to tie our records, which ones would we beat on SOS?

The Jets and the Browns have tougher remaining schedules. The Browns doesn’t look significant enough, but the Jets could be interesting. The math takes to much work to sort. I think the Cards best chance is if a team ahead of them wins and they don’t.

 

[Harry]

Why do you think it is poor? You think Tennessee is going to keep the pick and draft Mendoza?

Titans like Ward.

 

[Proteus]

If the teams below us win enough to tie our records, which ones would we beat on SOS?

I think Tennessee might have a tougher strength of schedule than us.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Titans like Ward.

I agree and that's the entire crux of the argument. Unless I read it wrong, they are saying that if Tennessee gets the first overall pick, they are giving the possibility of a trade a 9 out of 10...