Is this the best 2-5 team ever?

[Mulli]

enough talent to compete for a playoff spot was my contention

Playoffs!?

 

[BritCard]

no team goes through a season without missing starters

the question is: is the Cards injury situation worse than average. It is, especially now on offense.

but that doesn't change the fact that a NFL average for health defense had a chance to close out the last two games vs good teams and couldn't get 1 stop / limit a drive to a FG.


this team is confounding. good enough to be leading in the 4th quarter in 6 of 7 games and tied with :28 secs left in the 7th. No good enough to close out 5 of them.



this chart captures this:

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I think this is fair. I don't think we have been that bad as a team at all. There have been several season in the past 10 years where we have been far worse. There's been lots of good football on both sides of the ball.

We just can't get the big plays right, combined with some bad calls by refs.

There are teams who's winning records are a mirage. The Cardinals record is a mirage too. This isn't a 2-5 team.

 

[football karma]

There are teams who's winning records are a mirage. The Cardinals record is a mirage too. This isn't a 2-5 team.

i agree with this, mostly

If the next 10 games go like the first 7: meaning -- they have the lead 8 of them with under 5 mins to go in the game, and are tied with under 30 secs to go in the other two--

years of NFL experience / stats say the Cards will win, on average, 7 of those games.



i cant believe i just typed that

 

[Chopper0080]

We lost 5 games by an average of less than 3 points per game, 3 of them walk off FG's. Of course we have the talent to win.

Who is making plays at the ends of those games to get wins? Calais Campbell and nobody else. That's the issue.

 

[Chopper0080]

You fold Wilson, Nolen, Tip, Benson, and Conner back into the conversation and it looks a little different

Conner looked bad this season. The rest are very unproven and/or mid. This team is still waiting on it's drafted talent to make an impact in a key moment.

 

[kerouac9]

Conner looked bad this season. The rest are very unproven and/or mid. This team is still waiting on it's drafted talent to make an impact in a key moment.

Williams is good. Conner would probably have found a way to get the tough yards at the end of at least some of these games.

We’re not 6-1 with these guys, but that’s a lot of Jenga blocks to remove for a team with a 10-win ceiling.

 

[football karma]

Nolen is the wild card for the remainder of the season

IF he can provide pocket push in pass rushing situations -- that could make a difference

 

[HairZach]

We were 3-4 at the same point last year. This team is visibly a lot better than the 2024 team that got blown out by the Commanders and Packers. We've been in it with the best teams in the league. The Titans debacle feels like it killed the season.

 

[BritCard]

Who is making plays at the ends of those games to get wins? Calais Campbell and nobody else. That's the issue.

Sure, there are obvious issues. But you don't lose 5 games by less than 3 points on average (and none by more than 4) and not have a chance to be a winning team. We could easily be anything from 7-0 to 0-7. That's the type of season it's been.

At the moment everything is going against us. If the INT is called PI and the hold on Trey at the end of the game is called we win in Indi. If Gannon punts on 4th down or the push off is called on Kraft we beat GB.

If we were getting beat by 10 we'd have serious issues, but this isn't a bad team, it's just bad in clutch moments (as is coaching).

 

[BritCard]

Williams is good. Conner would probably have found a way to get the tough yards at the end of at least some of these games.

We’re not 6-1 with these guys, but that’s a lot of Jenga blocks to remove for a team with a 10-win ceiling.

I'm confident we win the last 2 with Conner. There are moments in the game, especially at the end of the Indi game, where they would have run Conner instead of passing and that would have made the difference.

 

[BritCard]

We were 3-4 at the same point last year. This team is visibly a lot better than the 2024 team that got blown out by the Commanders and Packers. We've been in it with the best teams in the league. The Titans debacle feels like it killed the season.

Yeah, I think if we win the Titans game and we're 3-4 now the general vibe is that we pushed 2 good teams close. The Titans game really screwed the vibe.

 

[Chopper0080]

Sure, there are obvious issues. But you don't lose 5 games by less than 3 points on average (and none by more than 4) and not have a chance to be a winning team. We could easily be anything from 7-0 to 0-7. That's the type of season it's been.

At the moment everything is going against us. If the INT is called PI and the hold on Trey at the end of the game is called we win in Indi. If Gannon punts on 4th down or the push off is called on Kraft we beat GB.

If we were getting beat by 10 we'd have serious issues, but this isn't a bad team, it's just bad in clutch moments (as is coaching).

But, when you are a fringe talent team, the clutch moments are where you need a playmaker to make a play. It's cliche but true. Especially on defense. You can call all of the blitzes you want but if you are leading, you need that CB, that pass rusher, that defender to make the critical play.

DTD got tossed to the ground by Kraft. Whether it should have been a penalty or not, the DB has to step up in that moment. A rush player has to win quick and put pressure on the QB to get the ball out. Players have to play with less cushion. Blitzers have to find a way to get home.

Vs Tenn, the offense crapped the bed. Regardless of the calls, who are the players stepping up to get the needed first down?

I have not loved the passive defensive calling much either, but the flip side is guys have to make plays. And if you don't have guys who can, that's a talent issue.

 

[kerouac9]

I have not loved the passive defensive calling much either, but the flip side is guys have to make plays. And if you don't have guys who can, that's a talent issue.

Calais essentially called “game” the first two weeks of the season.

I haven’t been able to validate this, but is sure seems like Josh Sweat is invisible in the fourth quarter of these games. He’ll get a sack like midway through the first and largely disappear.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

But, when you are a fringe talent team, the clutch moments are where you need a playmaker to make a play. It's cliche but true. Especially on defense. You can call all of the blitzes you want but if you are leading, you need that CB, that pass rusher, that defender to make the critical play.

We've had a lot of top 100 picks with Monti, the very picks where you need to be getting difference makers. The top teams in the NFL are loaded with difference makers - three years in, our ONLY top tier player is Trey. (drafted by Keim)

 

[Chopper0080]

Calais essentially called “game” the first two weeks of the season.

I haven’t been able to validate this, but is sure seems like Josh Sweat is invisible in the fourth quarter of these games. He’ll get a sack like midway through the first and largely disappear.

Yeah but I think most agreed when we signed him that he was a complimentary pass rusher vs a primary. Calais is a winning player for sure, and to your point, he is the only guy who has stepped up in these moments. The idea was that between Nolen, Sweat, and CC you would have a mix of good, complimentary, and developing pass rush additions. The rest was on players improving but they still all seem to be pretty mid. Which is ok expect when you also have a extremely young and inexperienced CB room to go with it.

 

[Chopper0080]

We've had a lot of top 100 picks with Monti, the very picks where you need to be getting difference makers. The top teams in the NFL are loaded with difference makers - three years in, our ONLY top tier player is Trey. (drafted by Keim)

Yes...when you go all in on the draft and develop game your timeline is dependent on when those players develop. Three years is not feasible IMO for that reason. Especially when you miss more than you hit in FA.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm confident we win the last 2 with Conner. There are moments in the game, especially at the end of the Indi game, where they would have run Conner instead of passing and that would have made the difference.

Devils advocate and I like Burch, but if we had picked Skattebo there, or traded up to get him in the 4th, we'd probably have those same 2 more wins. He actually fit the offense we wanted to run it was one of the reasons many of us talked about him, he was an obvious successor to the type of run game we built around Conner. If we had him we'd be able to get some key first downs when we need them. The biggest issue we have now at RB IMO is pass pro. It's so hard to throw the ball with Carter on the field because he can't pass block and even Knight isn't very good at it had 2 really bad whiffs in the GB game. for a rookie Skattebo's pass pro has been REALLY good, and he can get the short yardage.

LOsing Conner and Benson in consecutive games was bad luck, but we could have changed that luck had we picked the one RB in the draft that CLEARLY fit our offense

 

[PDXChris]

No! We're the 4th best hockey team in the NFL!

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[ASUCHRIS]

Yes...when you go all in on the draft and develop game your timeline is dependent on when those players develop. Three years is not feasible IMO for that reason. Especially when you miss more than you hit in FA.

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Look at this! Just a total disaster and misallocation of resources.

 

[Chopper0080]

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Look at this! Just a total disaster and misallocation of resources.

For sure a miss. In contrast, 2025 initially seems like a hit. A lot rides on Nolen but again, draft development can be very hit or miss.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

For sure a miss. In contrast, 2025 initially seems like a hit. A lot rides on Nolen but again, draft development can be very hit or miss.

We'll see...guys like Calais and Tomlinson are stopgaps - Sweat was the only guy that projects to be here for a couple of years, and he seems like a just fine signing. Not a star, but an above average starter. Clearly none of the players acquired outside of Campbell have made a major difference, hence our 2-5 record.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The Rams and Seahawks combined have 8 Pro Bowl appearances from their rookies in the last 3 years.

The Arizona Cardinals (with much better draft capital). 0

How do you build through the draft when teams in your own division draft far better than you?

 

[Mulli]

Ugh

We'll see...guys like Calais and Tomlinson are stopgaps - Sweat was the only guy that projects to be here for a couple of years, and he seems like a just fine signing. Not a star, but an above average starter. Clearly none of the players acquired outside of Campbell have made a major difference, hence our 2-5 record.

Cap Space, LongTerm Stability, and Future Foundation will love the new locker room!

 

[Mulli]

The Rams and Seahawks combined have 8 Pro Bowl appearances from their rookies in the last 3 years.

The Arizona Cardinals (with much better draft capital). 0

How do you build through the draft when teams in your own division draft far better than you?

You get the public to build you a stadium?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You get the public to build you a stadium?

Falling forward - the Michael Bidwill story.