The Market 2021

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
 

Western Font

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Jan 30, 2018
Posts
2,968
Reaction score
3,322
Location
Downtown
Powell speaks in about 15 minutes. It had been expected that he would outline tapering of bond-buying but the NYT reports that the plan is expected to be less clear.

Hard to tell if they are going to have a plan or wait until the plan is made for them…
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
Powell speaks in about 15 minutes. It had been expected that he would outline tapering of bond-buying but the NYT reports that the plan is expected to be less clear.

Hard to tell if they are going to have a plan or wait until the plan is made for them…

They're going to kick that can down the road as long as they can.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
Last edited:

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Any idea in this article when to put money from stocks to cash or interest accounts?
Good question. The article doesn't really get into that. But, IMO, it's a roundabout way of indicating that anything risk asset is going to have a rough go at it. Obviously cash and /or short term money market accounts can be a safe way to go and are in fact, positions. But, we all have our opinions of course, and I still maintain that precious metals are always a great insurance policy against an inflation/hyperinflationary measure. Especially for long term buy and holders.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
Any idea in this article when to put money from stocks to cash or interest accounts? Reading this, is this what the charts are suggesting?

I personally think it's foolish to make wholesale investments decisions based on bearish predictions of market corrections/collapses. Even if your thesis is 100% correct, you still lose when you inevitably mistime the exit or entry. That doesn't mean you can't position a portion of your portfolio with hedges to provide some protection against corrections and other adverse market conditions.

I have a little exposure to gold and gold miners as well as a small position in an ETF that provides inverse returns of a segment of the bond market. I also have some real asset exposure in my 401K. All together, these positions account for less than 5% of my investable assets so if they go to zero, I am okay, but they could help blunt losses if we see adverse market conditions.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
My problem is all my money is in a 401(K) with REALLY limited investment options. One year I did market time and that's why I have the money I have is I got out before a dip, bought back in after a dead cat bounce, and got all the money I have now. Otherwise the SP 500 fund I have, just kinda moves sideways overall. That's why I am trying to see when the dip is coming....
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
My problem is all my money is in a 401(K) with REALLY limited investment options. One year I did market time and that's why I have the money I have is I got out before a dip, bought back in after a dead cat bounce, and got all the money I have now. Otherwise the SP 500 fund I have, just kinda moves sideways overall. That's why I am trying to see when the dip is coming....
If you're worried more about allocation from a high risk perspective then you can have your account sponsor representative move you into a more balanced portfolio with say 50/50 stocks/bonds. If you're not sleeping well at night because of your personal discomfort with your allocation...then this would be a decent options. You have to do what "you" are most comfortable with at the end of the day regardless of the plethora of opinions on the markets.. Good luck.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
If you're worried more about allocation from a high risk perspective then you can have your account sponsor representative move you into a more balanced portfolio with say 50/50 stocks/bonds. If you're not sleeping well at night because of your personal discomfort with your allocation...then this would be a decent options. You have to do what "you" are most comfortable with at the end of the day regardless of the plethora of opinions on the markets.. Good luck.
No. I am the opposite. I like risk. I just want to market time, and sell high and buy low.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
That doesn't mean you can't position a portion of your portfolio with hedges to provide some protection against corrections and other adverse market conditions.
These are the things though that most people who don't work with the markets, like you and I do, have a great understanding of or how to go about it.
No. I am the opposite. I like risk. I just want to market time, and sell high and buy low.
Gotcha. Plenty of information and resources out there for beginners trying to swing trade or trade in general if you're passionate about it. Trading and actively investing requires passion to learn how to lose and win. imo... You can pm me if you would like some of the places I got started from.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
My problem is all my money is in a 401(K) with REALLY limited investment options. One year I did market time and that's why I have the money I have is I got out before a dip, bought back in after a dead cat bounce, and got all the money I have now. Otherwise the SP 500 fund I have, just kinda moves sideways overall. That's why I am trying to see when the dip is coming....

Sideways??? The S&P 500 is up 21.64% YTD and 31.28% over the last year. Its 3,5, and 10 year averages are 17.99%, 17.93%, and 16.23% respectively.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
Sideways??? The S&P 500 is up 21.64% YTD and 31.28% over the last year. Its 3,5, and 10 year averages are 17.99%, 17.93%, and 16.23%.
I understand that, but my chart from 2019 to 2021 just rises a little over that time frame overall. It goes up and down, but basically over two years, I haven't gained that much overall. Mostly I am stuck in SP 500 fund.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
You must be registered for see images attach


Things that make ya go hmmm...

I guess her flagship fund, ARKK still has 2.3B in $TSLA. So we're talking about less than 5% considering her other funds still have exposure. TSLA still makes up 11% of ARKK.
 

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,830
Inflation data comes out, it's actually lower than expected so experts say this should ease concerns, and then the markets immediately go south. After last week was hoping for some gains this week but right now today is wiping out yesterdays gains.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Inflation data comes out, it's actually lower than expected so experts say this should ease concerns, and then the markets immediately go south. After last week was hoping for some gains this week but right now today is wiping out yesterdays gains.
I'm still in the camp that we've gone up too far and too fast that this next dip won't be a painless one...but, If you're a believer in this bull market..the best this thing can do is get a 5-10 percent pullback to digest gains. IMO. The market is unfortunately a backwardly emotional thing. Too much of a good thing at times can be a bad thing..
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Looks like we are getting that pullback here... Things are still in a precarious spot with the dollar and long term treasuries on the cusp of big breakouts. So the bottom may not be in yet.. but we may need a larger spike in the vix to capitulate.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
Looks like we are getting that pullback here... Things are still in a precarious spot with the dollar and long term treasuries on the cusp of big breakouts. So the bottom may not be in yet. but we may need a larger spike in the vix to capitulate.

Still early. People have been conditioned to buy on every pullback since the corona crash and they have been rewarded. Some question whether we'll ever have a prolonged correction/bear market. It'll happen, but it will likely be very painful. It would be nice to have 6 months or a year of a bear market to take advantage of as a millennial investor. Most of my prime investing years have been during periods of all time highs. The corona crash was a great buying opportunity, but it was so short.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Still early. People have been conditioned to buy on every pullback since the corona crash and they have been rewarded. Some question whether we'll ever have a prolonged correction/bear market. It'll happen, but it will likely be very painful. It would be nice to have 6 months or a year of a bear market to take advantage of as a millennial investor. Most of my prime investing years have been during periods of all time highs. The corona crash was a great buying opportunity, but it was so short.
My concern...based on some of my analysis...is that we are all still talking about hyperinflation being the concern, all while, certain measures are showing that we could be swinging VERY quickly to the other end of the spectrum after all the printing from the bottom of the crash from fed intervention. I think we are in a spot where easing/injection is actually not working right now..and have merely kept the stock and debt markets afloat for months now. They will not be able to taper because it will absolutely ravage the markets. Rock and hard place the fed is.. imo.
 

Devilmaycare

Chief Brah Officer
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Posts
6,087
Reaction score
8,552
Location
Scottsdale
What do you guys think of the Evergrande situation and if it could cause the markets to tank?
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
What do you guys think of the Evergrande situation and if it could cause the markets to tank?
He may not be for everyone..but I like his style. He knows his macro IMO. He just released this today.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
 
Top