Luka Doncic Rookie of the Year

[Cheesebeef]

I see Ayton as a scoring and rebounding dynamo in a couple of seasons.

Maybe not the defensive player many envisioned but an imposing offensive player nevertheless.

Yes. I think Warren has taken the next step in regard to being a confident offensive player. He has solidified his offense the past couple of seasons especially the 3-point shot.

two seasons ago, he averaged 19.6 ppg for us. This year he averaged... 19.8 ppg for Indiana. He shot 16 times per game two years ago, as opposed to 14 this year. He improved his outside jumper and his rebounding slipped from 5 to 4 per game.

not sure how he’s really changed all that much outside of his 3 ball. He’s actually taking two fewer shots per game than he did two years ago when he averaged the same amount of points he did this year. He’s become more efficient with the three ball but there’s not one stat to really show he was more aggressive overall this season.

all that being said, I’m not sure what that has to do with Ayton. T.J. improved his game but didn’t make massive strides.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

what? he's not that far from being dominant? man, don't we at least need to see a stretch of play where Ayton's actually dominant before we start making those kind of leaps?

I mean, just looking at this season, 18/11/1.5 isn't anything near dominant. He had a couple games where he went for like 26/19 but that was it. He’s scored over 30 once in his entire career. And when the heat was on in the bubble trying to make the playoffs, he averaged 15/10/1.

now, none of that is to say he’s bad. But there is next to nothing to say he’s not that far from dominant right now.

Or maybe I just have no clue what you believe "dominant" is. What we saw from Doncic, Booker and Dame in the bubble is the the definition of dominant play. What LeBron does almost every night is dominant play. When talking about players dominating, you're usually talking about the best in the game. Ayton has never showed any stretch like that in his entire career. Doesn't he need to at least flash that over an actual stretch of games before you can make a claim like that?

You are just being overly critical. He is a 21 year old big man that is pretty close to an average stat line of 20/12/1.5/55%. If he got his numbers to let's say 23/13/2/55%+ while playing really good defense would we not call that a dominant player? Because he is not far away from putting up those numbers. It may not be dominant in the way YOU want him to be, but that would IMO be a dominant player.

 

[Phrazbit]

I see Ayton as a scoring and rebounding dynamo in a couple of seasons.

Maybe not the defensive player many envisioned but an imposing offensive player nevertheless.

Yes. I think Warren has taken the next step in regard to being a confident offensive player. He has solidified his offense the past couple of seasons especially the 3-point shot.

I don't see where this is coming from.

Honestly, he is WAY better a defensive player, RIGHT NOW, than virtually anyone thought he would ever be. Statistically, he was one of the best defensive bigs in the league last year, the Suns are night and day on D when he is or isn't available.

On offense however... different story. He is well behind where I thought he'd be. I figured he'd be a guy who was scoring a massively efficient 20+ points a night, but you'd have to worry he didn't give it back on the other end. Basically, a better rebounding version of Amare. But he isn't that player at all.

He is an astounding defender, someone who has the mobility to cut off penetration from almost any angle, he may not block a ton of shots but he forces guys into terrible positions by denying them even the option to shoot. His lateral footwork as a defender is amazing. And yet... on offense, he gets the ball in the post, his defender is flat footed or even on their heels... and Ayton settles for wimpy fadeaway jump shots... Amare would eat a defender alive in those situations, just run right over them and, no matter if the ball went through the hoop, scream "AND ONE!!!"

He is an elite rebounder, he has blown expectations out of the water as a defensive player, but I am extremely disappointed in his offensive game. He has all the ability to be an bull dozer on offense, he is really strong, he is a really good passer for a big, he has a soft touch, he's great when he goes to the rim... but he prefers these weak, trashass, jump shots. I hope they drill it out of him. If they do his best parallel is David Robinson. But it is difficult to change a player's mentality.

 

[Mainstreet]

I guess I'm more confused you think Ayton has exceeded expectations as a defender.

He certainly doesn't protect the rim like a Rudy Gobert. Some nights he is missing in action on defense although I have noticed he has improved his defense in the latter part of games. Personally I think it's a matter of concentration.

Ayton has the tools to be a good defender but he is not nearly as good as I expected... at least not yet. Of course the Suns defense hurts when he is not on the court but he is the Suns primary defender in small ball lineups.

I already mentioned Ayton's ability to rebound. There is no reason he shouldn't have huge rebounding numbers.

However, Ayton should improve his scoring easily once he learns where to get the ball and improves on pick and rolls. Scoring should become almost automatic. He has a nice shooting touch and should be an effective 3-point shooter. I think scoring is where he can make his biggest jump in the next few seasons.

 

[Western Font]

I was ready to be excited about Doncic because he was intriguing, but I was way more worried about a Doncic selection backfiring on us. Perhaps conservative with the benefit of hindsight, but to call Ayton a bad pick, even in comparison, is exaggerating. I feel badly for Kings fans and Hawks fans: I don't feel bad for us. I just hope the Suns and Ayton can get him to the next level before one of them gives up, and the light goes on for his true potential with another team.

 

[Cheesebeef]

You are just being overly critical. He is a 21 year old big man that is pretty close to an average stat line of 20/12/1.5/55%. If he got his numbers to let's say 23/13/2/55%+ while playing really good defense would we not call that a dominant player? Because he is not far away from putting up those numbers. It may not be dominant in the way YOU want him to be, but that would IMO be a dominant player.

first, adding 5 ppg and 2 rebounds... forget it. You’re right he’s close to being dominant.

 

[BC867]

...he has all the skills to be dominant.

The physical skills. Deandre has yet to show an inkling of the mental strength.

Warren has taken the next step in regard to being a confident offensive player.

As those before him, he is making a significant contribution after leaving the Suns.

 

[Chaplin]

The physical skills. Deandre has yet to show an inkling of the mental strength.

Well except for the fact that he’s become a much better defender. But you’re right, that has nothing to do with mental strength.

 

[Mainstreet]

The physical skills. Deandre has yet to show an inkling of the mental strength.


As those before him, he is making a significant contribution after leaving the Suns.

The point I was trying to make, although Warren's stat's haven't changed much over the last three seasons he has become a confident player and developed a consistent 3-point shot in Indiana. It really took him to age 26 to mature as a player.

Ayton is only 22 and his stats are on the way up. I think he will be dominant at 26. We need to be patient. Sometimes fans ask too much of players too early.

 

[Hoop Head]

The point I was trying to make, although Warren's stat's haven't changed much over the last three seasons he has become a confident player and developed a consistent 3-point shot in Indiana. It really took him to age 26 to mature as a player.

Ayton is only 22 and his stats are on the way up. I think he will be dominant at 26. We need to be patient. Sometimes fans ask too much of players too early.

Part of the issue with waiting until Ayton is 26 is he'll be well into his 2nd contract by then. We'll need to make a decision very soon in regards to what he's worth financially going forward and based on who he's been, I can't see paying him the max like with Booker. With Devin we knew he had the work ethic to improve and he proved to be a competitor in his time here as well.

Ayton on the other hand has been a bit of a space case mentally. He's let the team and fans down big time this season. Hopefully he learns from it but if we roll out a max contract offer when he's eligible, what does that say about some of the things he can control? To me, it would say his potential overrides his behavior and that's the wrong message to send on a team like the Suns who are trying to improve their internal culture and external image.

 

[Chaplin]

Part of the issue with waiting until Ayton is 26 is he'll be well into his 2nd contract by then. We'll need to make a decision very soon in regards to what he's worth financially going forward and based on who he's been, I can't see paying him the max like with Booker. With Devin we knew he had the work ethic to improve and he proved to be a competitor in his time here as well.

Ayton on the other hand has been a bit of a space case mentally. He's let the team and fans down big time this season. Hopefully he learns from it but if we roll out a max contract offer when he's eligible, what does that say about some of the things he can control? To me, it would say his potential overrides his behavior and that's the wrong message to send on a team like the Suns who are trying to improve their internal culture and external image.

That’s a long shot. I think, IF he was up for a new contract right now, he would easily get the max. Not saying he deserves it, but the way the NBA is, he would absolutely get the max right now.

 

[Mainstreet]

Part of the issue with waiting until Ayton is 26 is he'll be well into his 2nd contract by then. We'll need to make a decision very soon in regards to what he's worth financially going forward and based on who he's been, I can't see paying him the max like with Booker. With Devin we knew he had the work ethic to improve and he proved to be a competitor in his time here as well.

Ayton on the other hand has been a bit of a space case mentally. He's let the team and fans down big time this season. Hopefully he learns from it but if we roll out a max contract offer when he's eligible, what does that say about some of the things he can control? To me, it would say his potential overrides his behavior and that's the wrong message to send on a team like the Suns who are trying to improve their internal culture and external image.

The above example was for the purpose to demonstrate how some players take longer to put their game together.

In regard to keeping Ayton, hopefully we will know enough about him after next season to make a decision rather than waiting until restricted free agency.

Right now I don't even what to think about it not working.

If a star player becomes available it might be a different matter.

 

[BC867]

The point I was trying to make, although Warren's stat's haven't changed much over the last three seasons he has become a confident player and developed a consistent 3-point shot in Indiana. It really took him to age 26 to mature as a player.

Ayton is only 22 and his stats are on the way up. I think he will be dominant at 26. We need to be patient. Sometimes fans ask too much of players too early.

It will be interesting to see if Deandre's ceiling includes "consistent" and/or "dominant".

Consistency is expected. Dominance is reserved for the greats.

Consistency contributes to a winning record and playoff appearances.

Dominance contributes to Finals appearances.

Given the Suns history, consistency would be the more realistic goal.

Even if he stops shying away from contact, draws fouls and is available
to play, there is a big gap between that and being a dominant player.

My goals for him are consistency, no fear and acting like an adult.

Age 22 is an adult, whether you work at McDonald's or in the NBA.
Anything beyond that is gravy.

And if Deandre needs counseling to act like an adult, the Suns should
provide professionals to achieve that. Results, not alibis.

 

[Carolinacacti]

Next contract for Ayton and Booker, well I would hate to be the GM. Restricted free agency I would need to read up on it.

 

[Mainstreet]

It will be interesting to see if Deandre's ceiling includes "consistent" and/or "dominant".

Consistency is expected. Dominance is reserved for the greats.

Consistency contributes to a winning record and playoff appearances.

Dominance contributes to Finals appearances.

Given the Suns history, consistency would be the more realistic goal.

Even if he stops shying away from contact, draws fouls and is available
to play, there is a big gap between that and being a dominant player.

My goals for him are consistency, no fear and acting like an adult.

Age 22 is an adult, whether you work at McDonald's or in the NBA.
Anything beyond that is gravy.

And if Deandre needs counseling to act like an adult, the Suns should
provide professionals to achieve that. Results, not alibis.

I'm all for consistency first. Then we will go from there.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm all for consistency first. Then we will go from there.

the fact that we still need to see consistency is a problem from the nunber 1 pick in the draft after two years.

and for everyone who keeps saying he’s only 22 and big men take time to grow... or “he’s close to dominating now” uh... At age 22...

Shaq averaged 29/11/3 Monster. Already singlehandedly boosted team 23 games and got to the playoffs. On Multiple ALL NBA Teams.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html

Hakeem averaged 21/12/3 All NBA Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html

Alonzo Mourning averaged 21/10/3.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mournal01.html

Tim Duncan: 22/11/3 already won a title, 1st Team All NBA, Multiple time All NBA Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

Kevin Garnett: 20/10/2 1st Team All-NBA and 1st Team All Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html

ayton is 22, same age as those guys and we’re still talking about consistency. Those guys were making All NBA and All Defensive teams at the same age, dominating or “almost close to dominating” as one poster suggested Ayton was. Ayton has done none of the above in comparison to actually great big men by the time they were 22. Even though his points went up a bucket this season, his shooting percentage regressed, somehow so did his FT attempts and his assists stood still. His defense improved but it would have been embarrassing if it didn’t from last season and he torpedo’d the team at the beginning of the season while almost bookending it by doing the same in the bubble and even once he did join the team, he then faded as the bubble wound down.

Bottom line is next season, it’s time for the excuses (he’s only 23! He just started to learn how to play basketball over a decade ago! Etc. etc.) to stop. After next season, we will be staring at a decision whether or not to extend him, probably at huge money and we need to see a MAJOR step forward in every area of his game, on and off the floor to do that.

The best big men don’t need until age 26 to start making a massive impact, especially ones blessed with his natural skills and athleticism.

 

[Mainstreet]

the fact that we still need to see consistency is a problem from the nunber 1 pick in the draft after two years.

and for everyone who keeps saying he’s only 22 and big men take time to grow... or “he’s close to dominating now” uh... At age 22...

Shaq averaged 29/11/3 Monster. Already singlehandedly boosted team 23 games and got to the playoffs. On Multiple ALL NBA Teams.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html

Hakeem averaged 21/12/3 All NBA Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html

Alonzo Mourning averaged 21/10/3.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mournal01.html

Tim Duncan: 22/11/3 already won a title, 1st Team All NBA, Multiple time All NBA Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

Kevin Garnett: 20/10/2 1st Team All-NBA and 1st Team All Defense
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html

ayton is 22, same age as those guys and we’re still talking about consistency. Those guys were making All NBA and All Defensive teams at the same age, dominating or “almost close to dominating” as one poster suggested Ayton was. Ayton has done none of the above in comparison to actually great big men by the time they were 22. Even though his points went up a bucket this season, his shooting percentage regressed, somehow so did his FT attempts and his assists stood still. His defense improved but it would have been embarrassing if it didn’t from last season and he torpedo’d the team at the beginning of the season while almost bookending it by doing the same in the bubble and even once he did join the team, he then faded as the bubble wound down.

Bottom line is next season, it’s time for the excuses (he’s only 23! He just started to learn how to play basketball over a decade ago! Etc. etc.) to stop. After next season, we will be staring at a decision whether or not to extend him, probably at huge money and we need to see a MAJOR step forward in every area of his game, on and off the floor to do that.

The best big men don’t need until age 26 to start making a massive impact, especially ones blessed with his natural skills and athleticism.

I don't think Ayton's ceiling is any of the players you mention. These players are all time greats so this is a high bar. I'm not sure anyone was comparing Ayton to them... certainly not now. For those who thought Ayton would be that good I can see why the disappointment.

Also Ayton is a team option in 2021/22 and a restricted free agent in 2022/23 so the Suns have only two more seasons at best to kick the tires on his rookie contract. So you are right in the respect he is on a timer.

I do think Ayton can be a top scorer and rebounder if given time. I'm not sure how good he can be defensively.

When I used the age 26, I was primarily talking about how long it took TJ Warren to put his game together. I do think Ayton has a chance to be one heck of a player at that age if the Suns don't give up on him. It would be a shame to see him in another uniform when he reaches his peak.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't think Ayton's ceiling is any of the players you mention. These players are all time greats so this is a high bar. I'm not sure anyone was comparing Ayton to them... certainly not now. For those who thought Ayton would be that good I can see why the disappointment.

Mainstream, there are people here still saying "he's close to being dominant" and doing "historical things"... and a few even saying when all's said and done, he might still be better than Doncic. Dominant/historical/better than Doncic who already is playing at a HOF level. There's still a good deal of people claiming that's where Ayton's ceiling is.

 

[BC867]

Mainstream, there are people here still saying "he's close to being dominant" and doing "historical things"... and a few even saying when all's said and done, he might still be better than Doncic. Dominant/historical/better than Doncic who already is playing at a HOF level. There's still a good deal of people claiming that's where Ayton's ceiling is.

That's the point. It is unfair (to Ayton, the team and the fans) to even talk about him as "dominant".

Dominant means at the top. Dominates everyone else. Ayton has not shown a glimpse of reaching
that extreme level in any way.

All I'm hoping for, at best, is a solid post player, who makes things happen and leads the team to
the playoffs, along with Booker. It is not a given, unless and until we see otherwise.

It would be like expecting Sarver to be the dominant owner in the NBA. We don't need him to be
dominant. The Suns have never been that kind of team. Just rise above the negatives.

 

[Lorenzo]

I'm going to continue to say that I wanted Luka, the coach wanted Luka, and the front office shoved a large pie in their faces by picking the UofA guy with no heart. Nevermind the direction of the league, and that Ball Handlers dominate in all aspects of this new version of the NBA. I do recognize that was a minority opinion of mine but damn it hurts to watch him play for the Mavs.

With that being said...... Ayton is better than average. And at his age, could still be the 3rd best guy on a title team and a possible HOF'er if he achieves anything close to his ceiling. No so shabby.


another aside I had yesterday: Who here thinks that Luka right now..... is already either the same or better than peak level Dirk ever was. At his age, that's truly mind blowing.

I can't speak to Ayton because I haven't followed him. I am impressed with so many of the younger players in the league. I watched a little bit of Luka in his rookie year and saw all of the bubble games this year. Clearly Luka made a jump from year 1 to year 2 which is a good sign. Statistics are amazing, but you don't get the full story until you watch the guy play.

In the end I think he will be better than dirk as an all around player. he's already more popular than dirk. Dirk was very popular in dallas and in Europe, and he was highly respected by his peers, but he was never on Luka's popularity level in the NBA at that young of an age. And I would counter that Luka may already be more popular now than dirk ever was, rather than being better now than dirk ever was.

Dirk was very quiet in his first 2 or 3 seasons. It really wasn't until Nash left to phoenix and even to some degree when Dirk won his title, that the rest of the country respected dirk in the manner that he deserved. Clearly Luka is way more advanced than dirk was at age 21. But already better than dirk was in his peak is highly subjective. Dirk at his peak is also subjective. I think dirk at his peak is probably 2011, but at that point he was older and not physically able to do some of the things that he did when he was younger. A lot of people forget that he ran the entire length of the court handling the ball at 7 feet. Avery Johnson pushed dirk to get away from that style and focus more on posting, which to dirk's credit it turned him from being a jump shooter to a complete un-guardable player. Luka and dirk are very different, but the similarity is their ability to hit clutch shots and close out games. The latter is what dirk excelled at and people overlooked that dirk was a great closer because he lost the 2006 finals and lost a lot of playoff series. if you watched all of dallas' games, dirk was a great closer and hit too many big shots in his career to remember. If the game was close, he routinely out performed the other NBA superstar players in the end of games head to head. in his title run he out performed Kobe, OKC's young trio, lebron and wade. His playoff numbers were almost always elevated and I think his game 7 performances/elimination games were up there with the all time greats. luka will have to improve on closing out games, which is something that he still has issues with due to the amount of attention he gets and he often looks like he is worn down by the end of a game. (making free throws is part of that as well). I think Luka will make those improvements and the mavs need to get him some help and rest him more.

 

[Lorenzo]

I don't think he's there yet, although stats would indicate he's better right now. Dirk was a different type of dominant, being a 7 footer with 30 foot range. Dirk was also a better defender, when he was engaged, and a better rebounder. I know Luka averages a great number of boards for a guard but that's the NBA nowadays, bigs box out for ball handlers to grab boards and push the ball.

I think Dirk being present for Luka's rookie year is something not discussed enough. Having the best Euro of all time to help mentor Luka and show him the ropes is one of the reasons I think Luka acclimated to the NBA as quick as he has. Luka would be good regardless but I think Dirk made the whole transition easier and happen at an accelerated pace.

absolutely, dirk took care of his body and had a strict diet. anyone who ever played with dirk would always marvel at how much effort dirk put into his game on and off the court. Surely luka would have noticed the sacrifices that dirk made to advance his career. I think that is why dirk often outperformed others in the fourth quarter of games, which was dirk's best attribute as a player IMO. Luka will need to take care of his body and learn how to keep himself fresh so that he can consistently be at his best late in games.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I can't speak to Ayton because I haven't followed him. I am impressed with so many of the younger players in the league. I watched a little bit of Luka in his rookie year and saw all of the bubble games this year. Clearly Luka made a jump from year 1 to year 2 which is a good sign. Statistics are amazing, but you don't get the full story until you watch the guy play.

In the end I think he will be better than dirk as an all around player. he's already more popular than dirk. Dirk was very popular in dallas and in Europe, and he was highly respected by his peers, but he was never on Luka's popularity level in the NBA at that young of an age. And I would counter that Luka may already be more popular now than dirk ever was, rather than being better now than dirk ever was.

Dirk was very quiet in his first 2 or 3 seasons. It really wasn't until Nash left to phoenix and even to some degree when Dirk won his title, that the rest of the country respected dirk in the manner that he deserved. Clearly Luka is way more advanced than dirk was at age 21. But already better than dirk was in his peak is highly subjective. Dirk at his peak is also subjective. I think dirk at his peak is probably 2011, but at that point he was older and not physically able to do some of the things that he did when he was younger. A lot of people forget that he ran the entire length of the court handling the ball at 7 feet. Avery Johnson pushed dirk to get away from that style and focus more on posting, which to dirk's credit it turned him from being a jump shooter to a complete un-guardable player. Luka and dirk are very different, but the similarity is their ability to hit clutch shots and close out games. The latter is what dirk excelled at and people overlooked that dirk was a great closer because he lost the 2006 finals and lost a lot of playoff series. if you watched all of dallas' games, dirk was a great closer and hit too many big shots in his career to remember. If the game was close, he routinely out performed the other NBA superstar players in the end of games head to head. in his title run he out performed Kobe, OKC's young trio, lebron and wade. His playoff numbers were almost always elevated and I think his game 7 performances/elimination games were up there with the all time greats. luka will have to improve on closing out games, which is something that he still has issues with due to the amount of attention he gets and he often looks like he is worn down by the end of a game. (making free throws is part of that as well). I think Luka will make those improvements and the mavs need to get him some help and rest him more.

the gauntlet Dirk ran, beating Kobe/Pau/Odom (2 time defending champs), Durant/Westbrook/Harden and the LeBron/Wade/Bosh (all in their peak prime) has got to be one of the greatest runs of all time.

Only one I'd compare it to would be Hakeem's 1995 run through Stockton/Malone (60 win team), Barkley/KJ (59 win team), David Robinson's best pre-Duncan Spurs team (62 wins) and then Shaq/Penny (57 win team) in the Finals... all as the underdog in every series, with his best players around him an aging Clyde Drexler and a second year Sam Cassel.

 

[Lorenzo]

the gauntlet Dirk ran, beating Kobe/Pau/Odom (2 time defending champs), Durant/Westbrook/Harden and the LeBron/Wade/Bosh (all in their peak prime) has got to be one of the greatest runs of all time.

Only one I'd compare it to would be Hakeem's 1995 run through Stockton/Malone (60 win team), Barkley/KJ (59 win team), David Robinson's best pre-Duncan Spurs team (62 wins) and then Shaq/Penny (57 win team) in the Finals... all as the underdog in every series, with his best players around him an aging Clyde Drexler and a second year Sam Cassel.

That's a good comp, I think Rick Carlisle said the same exact thing after the mavs won their title in 2011. I remember those playoffs in 95'. Everyone seemed to write off that Houston team, but Hakeem put them on his back and dominated. Of corse like the 11' mavs, they had some damn good role players on that team as well. It's nice when you have a robert horry and a shawn marion dominating in the shadows. Marion is probably the most underrated mavericks player in franchise history. he should be in the hall of fame if you consider what he did on both ends of the court every night. one of the best defenders out there.

 

[Yuma]

That's a good comp, I think Rick Carlisle said the same exact thing after the mavs won their title in 2011. I remember those playoffs in 95'. Everyone seemed to write off that Houston team, but Hakeem put them on his back and dominated. Of corse like the 11' mavs, they had some damn good role players on that team as well. It's nice when you have a robert horry and a shawn marion dominating in the shadows. Marion is probably the most underrated mavericks player in franchise history. he should be in the hall of fame if you consider what he did on both ends of the court every night. one of the best defenders out there.

Most underrated in Suns history too. He carried some of the teams we had during his tenure here.

 

[Lorenzo]

Most underrated in Suns history too. He carried some of the teams we had during his tenure here.

Yes I should have mentioned his tenure with the Suns when he was literally killing it on offense, rebounding like crazy, and consistently defending the opponent’s top perimeter players. If I recall he even checked tony Parker. He got shafted because he was on great offensive teams, back then scoring was seen as a bad thing haha.