Wild Card Tie-Breaker Scenarios

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TheCardinal

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TheCardinal, your understanding of the tie-breaking procedures is awesome! Really enjoy your posts on the subject.

In the scenario I was referencing, the Rams beat Seattle in week 16.

...dave

Thanks! I see now where you have it.

There are a few additional caveats, however! What did GB do against Tennessee? If the Packers lost, then the Rams would still have a shot at the 1-seed. I’m certain they would move the GB-CHI game to the late slot. If the Packers won, then (coupled with the obligate Seattle loss) GB would’ve clinched the 1-seed and lay down against the Bears! We’re no better off! Chicago going 2-0 knocks us out even if we beat the Rams in that scenario (with loss to SF).

So, maybe Chicago would have to lose to Jax. I think that would do it:

Rams win (10-5) / Seattle loss (10-5)
Packers win (12-3)
Cardinals loss (8-7)
Bucs loss (9-6)
Bears loss (7-8)
Saints/Vikings wouldn’t matter for the purposes of that scenario.


The Rams with a win in Week 17 would win the division and get either the 2 or 3 seed, depending on what New Orleans does. The 1-seed would be GB’s and they lay down against the Bears (8-8). The Rams, however, know that with a loss in Week 17, they couldn’t fall lower than the 5-seed since TB loses the tie-breaker. If Seattle lays down against SF, they’d hand the division to the Rams (but COULD be caught by TB for the 5-seed). In any case, we don’t care who ACTUALLY gets the 5-seed, just that the Rams lay down.

The Cardinals, with a win, would then be 9-7 and safely in. With a loss, CHI (or even MIN) would get in at 8-8.

I think you’ve got it!
 

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It happens! :D As always, 'sall good, man!


I'm not wishing for it... in fact, losing to the 49ers, then backing into the playoffs because the Rams took the game off is hardly an exciting prospect. I originally brought up the possible scenario in response to @SoonerLou , who said, "
Maybe the Rams have the division locked up/3rd seed and rest come week 17?". I was just suggesting that potentially they might not even need to have the division locked up to decide that rest was the best course.

You're certainly right that the scenario is unlikely to arise, and if it did, conventional wisdom would be to try for the higher seed. Just saying that in this weird season with no HFA and the #4 seed being the worst team in the playoffs, there's much more appeal to being the #5 seed than usual, so there's a good case to be made that resting up in week 17 is the most prudent course of action for the Rams.

...dave

youre drinking drano homeboy.
 

Bkbobo

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So if we win out and Seattle lose out, we would win the NFC West. It's not likely, but isn't it awesome we are talking playoffs scenarios this late in the season. Let's go Cards!
 
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TheCardinal

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So if we win out and Seattle lose out, we would win the NFC West. It's not likely, but isn't it awesome we are talking playoffs scenarios this late in the season. Let's go Cards!
No, we cannot win the West.

If we won out and Seattle lost out, the Rams would also be 10-6 (beating Seattle and losing to us). In the 3-way tie, the Rams would be 3-1 head-to-head, we would be 2-2, Seattle would be 1-3. Thus, the Rams would win the division. The tie-breaker would start over between us and Seattle, with the Cardinals winning on division record (4-2 vs 2-4), finishing in second place in the West.
 

Bkbobo

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No, we cannot win the West.

If we won out and Seattle lost out, the Rams would also be 10-6 (beating Seattle and losing to us). In the 3-way tie, the Rams would be 3-1 head-to-head, we would be 2-2, Seattle would be 1-3. Thus, the Rams would win the division. The tie-breaker would start over between us and Seattle, with the Cardinals winning on division record (4-2 vs 2-4), finishing in second place in the West.

Gotcha. I went overall NFC West records first, and not head to head.
 
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TheCardinal

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Gotcha. I went overall NFC West records first, and not head to head.

It's kind of an unfortunate situation!

One-on-one, we'd beat Seattle (division 4-2 vs 2-4).
One-on-one, we'd beat Los Angeles (division 4-2 vs 3-3).

Three-way tie: we'd come in second. :mad:

Oh well, at least we would be guaranteed, at worst, the 6-seed, with a chance at the 5-seed depending on what the Bucs and Saints do.
 

daves

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There's a not-entirely-implausible scenario where the Cardinals get the coveted #5 seed (and thus, play Washington in the first round): If all remaining games are won by the team with the better record, EXCEPT Tampa Bay loses one game (to Detroit or Atlanta) and the Cardinals beat the Rams.

In this scenario, the Rams drop to 9-7, and the Cards edge out the Buccaneers on tie breakers at 10-6 for the top Wild Card. However, the Rams would be playing all-out to win that game vs. the Cardinals, as the winner of the game goes to Washington while the loser goes to New Orleans as the #7 seed.

...dave
 
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football karma

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Seahawks would clinch the West. However, regardless of what TB does, the Rams could still get the coveted 5-seed. In that scenario, so could we.

(BTW: thanks for all this -- its great)

so:

lets say GB wins out, so 9-7 gets the Cards in with a win vs SF

that win vs SF also guarantees the Rams a playoff berth

Rams lose vs SEA

assume TB wins one of its two left.

basically the AZ vs LAR game is to determine who is the 6th seed vs the 7th seed

6th seed goes to SEA to play
7th goes to NO

if TB loses both games, then the game vs the Rams is for 5th vs 7th seed

i know what i would rather have
 
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TheCardinal

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Down go the Vikings. Merry Christmas, Cardinals fans!

Yes, Vikings eliminated and Saints clinch the South.

Fewer thing needed should we hope to get in at 8-8. If we go 0-2, Chicago would have to lose both. No other help needed.

With the Saints no longer a wild-card contender, our strength-of-victory tie-breaker scenario with them at 10-6 is off the board.
 
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TheCardinal

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Bucs clinch a wildcard. For the Cardinals:

Win both (10-6), we’re in and at worst the 6-seed. If TB loses next week to ATL, we’d get the 5-seed.

Split remaining games (9-7), we would need EITHER: Bears lose 1 OR Rams lose 2. Would be 6-seed or 7-seed.

Lose both games (8-8), we’d need Bears to lose both. We’d be the 7-seed.
 
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TheCardinal

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We get in with two losses by Chicago, even if we lose next week.

If we beat the Rams, we get in with a Rams loss to Seattle, or one loss by Chicago.
 

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What We Want
1. Tennessee beats GB
2. Seattle beats LA
3. Jax beats CHI

if none of those happen, then GB rests up against CHI in last week and we are almost always out. If just one happens we have a decent chance to make the playoffs. If two happen then we are more than likely. If all three happen then we are almost 70% to make it.
 

KYCardFan

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The Rams could miss the playoff if they lose last two and Chicago wins last two

Bizarre scenario in play there as a Cards win today won have locked up a playoff spot for Rams

If Rams lose in Seattle, The Bears beat Jax and lose to GB, Rams will have playoff spot locked up and wont need to beat Cards to make playoffs
 
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TheCardinal

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The Rams could miss the playoff if they lose last two and Chicago wins last two

Bizarre scenario in play there as a Cards win today won have locked up a playoff spot for Rams

If Rams lose in Seattle, The Bears beat Jax and lose to GB, Rams will have playoff spot locked up and wont need to beat Cards to make playoffs


However, I suspect they would move the GB/CHI game to a late slot. Still also a chance that game gets flexed into the night slot, or even our game against the Rams.
 

KYCardFan

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Seattle win tomorrow the Cards are still in control of playoff destiny despite what anybody else does

Rams Vs Cardinal the winner is in playoffs

Rams need a one Bear loss to secure a spot

If CHI, GB and LA win today - Cards need a win against LA and one Chicago lost

Rams beat CHI head to head but get screwed in three way tie with Cards and Bears
 
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mjb21aztd

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Seattle win tomorrow the Cards are still in control of playoff destiny despite what anybody else does

Rams Vs Cardinal the winner is in playoffs

Rams need a one Bear loss to secure a spot

If CHI, GB and LA win today - Cards need a win against LA and one Chicago lost

Rams beat CHI head to head but get screwed in three way tie with Cards and Bears

So even if bears win today and la gb wins cards still have shot next sun?
 
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TheCardinal

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So even if bears win today and la gb wins cards still have shot next sun?
No matter what, the Cardinals cannot be eliminated this weekend. However, in your scenario, we would need to win and Bears to lose next week, but GB would have nothing to play for.
 
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TheCardinal

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Bears beating Jaguars.

The Cardinals now need to beat the Rams next week, PLUS one of the following:

SEA over LAR this week
OR
GB over CHI next week
 

KYCardFan

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Correct

A win is required next week regardless Rams have beat the Cardinals 7 straight by an average margin of 21 points

McVay owns the Cardinals
 
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TheCardinal

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Correct

A win is required next week regardless Rams have beat the Cardinals 7 straight by an average margin of 21 points

McVay owns the Cardinals

Then maybe we’ll salvage a tie? An Arizona tie PLUS Chicago loss works too.
 

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