TheCardinal
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TheCardinal, your understanding of the tie-breaking procedures is awesome! Really enjoy your posts on the subject.
In the scenario I was referencing, the Rams beat Seattle in week 16.
...dave
Thanks! I see now where you have it.
There are a few additional caveats, however! What did GB do against Tennessee? If the Packers lost, then the Rams would still have a shot at the 1-seed. I’m certain they would move the GB-CHI game to the late slot. If the Packers won, then (coupled with the obligate Seattle loss) GB would’ve clinched the 1-seed and lay down against the Bears! We’re no better off! Chicago going 2-0 knocks us out even if we beat the Rams in that scenario (with loss to SF).
So, maybe Chicago would have to lose to Jax. I think that would do it:
Rams win (10-5) / Seattle loss (10-5)
Packers win (12-3)
Cardinals loss (8-7)
Bucs loss (9-6)
Bears loss (7-8)
Saints/Vikings wouldn’t matter for the purposes of that scenario.
The Rams with a win in Week 17 would win the division and get either the 2 or 3 seed, depending on what New Orleans does. The 1-seed would be GB’s and they lay down against the Bears (8-8). The Rams, however, know that with a loss in Week 17, they couldn’t fall lower than the 5-seed since TB loses the tie-breaker. If Seattle lays down against SF, they’d hand the division to the Rams (but COULD be caught by TB for the 5-seed). In any case, we don’t care who ACTUALLY gets the 5-seed, just that the Rams lay down.
The Cardinals, with a win, would then be 9-7 and safely in. With a loss, CHI (or even MIN) would get in at 8-8.
I think you’ve got it!