Why the evidence suggests Matt Fitzpatrick can still win The Open despite poor first round

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Matt Fitzpatrick came into The Open as one of the favorites to win the Claret Jug.

But he started his tournament at Royal Birkdale with a whimper. The Englishman shot a 72 to finish his opening round two over par, seven shots back of the leading score.

He’s been the player of the season so far, and was in the mix at last week’s Scottish Open, so this was a really disappointing display from Fitzpatrick on Thursday.

But judging by how his 2026 has gone so far, statistics say he’s well in the tournament still.

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Matt Fitzpatrick’s bounce-back ability in 2026​

Fitzpatrick has won three times on the PGA Tour this year, but this isn’t the first time he’s been off to a slow start to a tournament.

In fact, this is the fifth time he’s played his opening round of a tournament over par in 2026. But the good news for Fitzpatrick is that each of the other four times this has happened, his second-round score was at least four shots better than his Thursday score.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that this wasn’t the case with any of his wins or his other best results of the season so far. Whenever Fitzpatrick has been in contention, he’s gotten off to a good start.

However, the conditions may have played a big role in Fitzpatrick’s score at Birkdale. The afternoon wave faced the much harder conditions, and we saw that across the board. That’s set to change on day two.

If Fitzpatrick can take advantage of the calm weather on Friday morning, he can get himself right back in the mix.

• READ MORE: Justin Thomas confirms why he was wearing wrist tape while playing his first round at The Open Championship

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