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Tennessee basketball is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but it may not like its seed.
For weeks, the Vols (22-11) had been projected as a No. 5 seed in March Madness, but they closed the regular season with three losses in their final four games. Star freshman Nate Ament, with an ankle injury, wasn't at full health, and he sat the last two games.
Tennessee needed a strong performance in the SEC Tournament to rise in NCAA Tournament bracket projections. Instead, it bowed out after two games.
The Vols rode a 20-0 second-half run, ignited by Ament in his first game back, all the way to a 72-62 win over Auburn in the second round at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Ament couldn't create the same magic in Tennessee's 75-68 loss to Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal round on March 13.
Tennessee now awaits its March Madness seeding and opponent reveal on Selection Sunday (6 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Here's where Tennessee basketball lands in the final March Madness projections.
USA TODAY bracketologists Erick Smith, Paul Myerburg and Eddie Timanus haven't budged from their projection of Tennessee as a No. 5 seed. They have the Vols in the West Region playing against No. 12 South Florida in Philadelphia. The winner would play either No. 4 Virginia or No. 13 High Point.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi dropped the Vols down to a No. 6 and moved them to Greenville, South Carolina in the South Region. They would play No. 11 Miami (Ohio), which went 31-0 before losing to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals.
Lunardi was lower on the Vols' seeding ceiling due to Ament's injury. He told Knox News on March 9 that he expected them to perform better with more games under the star freshman's belt.
"Could they move up to a No. 4 seed? Sure," he said. "Do they look like they're going to go on a three-game winning streak? No. They're more likely to go on a three-game winning streak two weeks from now."
Like USA TODAY, CBS Sports has Tennessee as a No. 5 seed but in the West Region. The Vols would play No. 12 Yale in Tampa, Florida. No. 4 Gonzaga and No. 13 Utah Valley sit on the other side of the bracket.
Tennessee has entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed twice. In 2007, under then-coach Bruce Pearl, the Vols defeated No. 12 Long Beach State and No. 4 Virginia. They fell by a single point, 85-84, to No. 1 Ohio State, which made it to the national championship game.
More recently, Tennessee was upset in the first round by No. 12 Oregon State in 2021. The Beavers shocked the Vols with a 70-56 victory and made a run to the Elite Eight.
The No. 5 seed is statistically the second-most dangerous upset position in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. There have been 57 first-round upsets with a No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 seed since 1985, which is about 36% of all matchups.
The chances of upset as a No. 6 seed are slightly worse, rising to 39%. No. 4 seeds are typically more secure with a historical upset rate of 21%.
Wynton Jackson covers high school sports for Knox News. Email: [email protected]
Support strong local journalism and unlock premium perks: knoxnews.com/subscribe
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee March Madness bracket predictions for NCAA Tournament
Continue reading...
For weeks, the Vols (22-11) had been projected as a No. 5 seed in March Madness, but they closed the regular season with three losses in their final four games. Star freshman Nate Ament, with an ankle injury, wasn't at full health, and he sat the last two games.
Tennessee needed a strong performance in the SEC Tournament to rise in NCAA Tournament bracket projections. Instead, it bowed out after two games.
The Vols rode a 20-0 second-half run, ignited by Ament in his first game back, all the way to a 72-62 win over Auburn in the second round at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Ament couldn't create the same magic in Tennessee's 75-68 loss to Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal round on March 13.
Tennessee now awaits its March Madness seeding and opponent reveal on Selection Sunday (6 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Here's where Tennessee basketball lands in the final March Madness projections.
Tennessee basketball's standing in latest bracketology
USA TODAY bracketologists Erick Smith, Paul Myerburg and Eddie Timanus haven't budged from their projection of Tennessee as a No. 5 seed. They have the Vols in the West Region playing against No. 12 South Florida in Philadelphia. The winner would play either No. 4 Virginia or No. 13 High Point.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi dropped the Vols down to a No. 6 and moved them to Greenville, South Carolina in the South Region. They would play No. 11 Miami (Ohio), which went 31-0 before losing to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals.
Lunardi was lower on the Vols' seeding ceiling due to Ament's injury. He told Knox News on March 9 that he expected them to perform better with more games under the star freshman's belt.
"Could they move up to a No. 4 seed? Sure," he said. "Do they look like they're going to go on a three-game winning streak? No. They're more likely to go on a three-game winning streak two weeks from now."
Like USA TODAY, CBS Sports has Tennessee as a No. 5 seed but in the West Region. The Vols would play No. 12 Yale in Tampa, Florida. No. 4 Gonzaga and No. 13 Utah Valley sit on the other side of the bracket.
Why a No. 5 seed could spell doom for Vols
Tennessee has entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed twice. In 2007, under then-coach Bruce Pearl, the Vols defeated No. 12 Long Beach State and No. 4 Virginia. They fell by a single point, 85-84, to No. 1 Ohio State, which made it to the national championship game.
More recently, Tennessee was upset in the first round by No. 12 Oregon State in 2021. The Beavers shocked the Vols with a 70-56 victory and made a run to the Elite Eight.
The No. 5 seed is statistically the second-most dangerous upset position in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. There have been 57 first-round upsets with a No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 seed since 1985, which is about 36% of all matchups.
The chances of upset as a No. 6 seed are slightly worse, rising to 39%. No. 4 seeds are typically more secure with a historical upset rate of 21%.
Wynton Jackson covers high school sports for Knox News. Email: [email protected]
Support strong local journalism and unlock premium perks: knoxnews.com/subscribe
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee March Madness bracket predictions for NCAA Tournament
Continue reading...
