Walter Nolen has a Calf injury to start camp

[PDXChris]

Monti has been mid. Draft and FA. Can't be on here saying MHJ is disappointing and then arguing Monti has drafted well. Can't be saying Michael Wilson is a terrible WR2 but Monti hit on that draft pick. Paris Johnson actually has to be a top 10 LT for that pick to be considered good. Same with Melton and Darius Robinson.

Now, I have my personal feelings on what I think some of these drafted players will do, but once again, this is an example of the board giving Monti credit for something that hasn't happened yet.

Agreed and the same is said for those who are saying he's drafted poorly too. The hope is he gets better with each draft. Let's not forget that in year one, most of the scouting department was stills SK's. Year two looks better than year one and on paper, year 3 looks like it can be more well rounded than year two, but that remains to be seen.

 

[Chopper0080]

Agreed and the same is said for those who are saying he's drafted poorly too. The hope is he gets better with each draft. Let's not forget that in year one, most of the scouting department was stills SK's. Year two looks better than year one and on paper, year 3 looks like it can be more well rounded than year two, but that remains to be seen.

One of the tough parts for Monti was his plan. Building through the draft is great, but it means you have to hit on picks, and those picks need to contribute right away otherwise you are just drafting for the next GM. Same with tanking your first season. You can tank for first season to reset, but that puts you in a hole, and you need year over year improvement for multiple years to get out of that hole in terms of wins and losses. It was always going to be a narrow path to success that needed Bidwill's unwillingness to pay multiple GMs and HCs at the same time for it to work.

 

[kerouac9]

Year two looks better than year one

Because of the size of the draft class? None of the prospects we took in 2024 are outperforming PJJ or Garret Williams, or really projected to rn.

And Dante Stills! Stills had a better rookie season than DTD and was picked later! Stills probably had a better rookie season than Isaiah Adams.

 

[PDXChris]

Because of the size of the draft class? None of the prospects we took in 2024 are outperforming PJJ or Garret Williams, or really projected to rn.

And Dante Stills! Stills had a better rookie season than DTD and was picked later! Stills probably had a better rookie season than Isaiah Adams.

Now you want to leave BJ out, funny. And just a week ago you were talking about all of the days 3 guys outside of Stills being on the bubble from year 1.

Year 1 brought us 3 starters, 2 role players and a question mark in BJ, which hopefully will be answered this season, but heavily leaning towards bust.

Year 2 has 4 starters, possibly 5 depending on the starting formation on O with Tip and a possible 6 or 7 next season with Benson and DTD.

Year 3 looks like al should contribute this season as long as Conner's knee isn't that bad and Walter's calf is good in 4 weeks. Simon looks like the worst pick as of now.

By next season, Monti may have 11-13 of 22 starters plus a handful of role players/ST starters in 3 drafts.

2025 Starters
1.PJJ (1st draft)
2.Michael Wilson (1st draft)
3.Garrett Williams (1st draft)
4.Marvin Harrison (2nd draft)
5.Darius Robinson (2nd draft)
6.Max Melton (2nd draft)
7.Isaiah Adams (2nd draft)
8. Will Johnson (3rd draft)

2026 Possible Starters
9. Tip Reiman (2nd draft)
10. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (2nd draft)
11. Trey Benson (2nd draft)
12. Walter Nolen (3rd draft)
13. Jordan Burch (3rd draft)

 

[oaken1]

Because of the size of the draft class? None of the prospects we took in 2024 are outperforming PJJ or Garret Williams, or really projected to rn.

And Dante Stills! Stills had a better rookie season than DTD and was picked later! Stills probably had a better rookie season than Isaiah Adams.

Dante Stills has been a score... had he been drafted in round two...most still wouldnt be too disappointed in his development.
in order to be "successful" Monti needs to get that level of "value over expectations" from a couple first and second round picks.

 

[kerouac9]

Now you want to leave BJ out, funny. And just a week ago you were talking about all of the days 3 guys outside of Stills being on the bubble from year 1.

Year 1 brought us 3 starters, 2 role players and a question mark in BJ, which hopefully will be answered this season, but heavily leaning towards bust.

Year 2 has 4 starters, possibly 5 depending on the starting formation on O with Tip and a possible 6 or 7 next season with Benson and DTD.

Year 3 looks like al should contribute this season as long as Conner's knee isn't that bad and Walter's calf is good in 4 weeks. Simon looks like the worst pick as of now.

By next season, Monti may have 11-13 of 22 starters plus a handful of role players/ST starters in 3 drafts.

2025 Starters
1.PJJ (1st draft)
2.Michael Wilson (1st draft)
3.Garrett Williams (1st draft)
4.Marvin Harrison (2nd draft)
5.Darius Robinson (2nd draft)
6.Max Melton (2nd draft)
7.Isaiah Adams (2nd draft)
8. Will Johnson (3rd draft)

2026 Possible Starters
9. Tip Reiman (2nd draft)
10. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (2nd draft)
11. Trey Benson (2nd draft)
12. Walter Nolen (3rd draft)
13. Jordan Burch (3rd draft)

Starters don’t matter as much to me as high-end talent and team success. Monti can make all his players starters by hollowing out the roster. I don’t care if you start for a 5-win team.

Is Darius Robinson a starter? How sure of that are we? Is he good? Doesn’t that matter more?

Melton, Adams, and Johnson didn’t do anything to earn their starting jobs. Michael Wilson and Charmin didn’t either, but Charmin at least was highly drafted.

It’s such a weak metric.

 

[BACH]

Because of the size of the draft class? None of the prospects we took in 2024 are outperforming PJJ or Garret Williams, or really projected to rn.

Where are you getting this from?

There were several rookies last year playing better than PJJ and Williams did as rookies.

And Dante Stills! Stills had a better rookie season than DTD and was picked later! Stills probably had a better rookie season than Isaiah Adams.

Are you using Fantasy Football scores to justify you opinion again? DTD had a far better rookie season than Stills.

What does draft status have to do with production on the field when discussing Day 3 picks?

 

[BACH]

Since I get a laughing emoji for asking for your source. I assume you are making stuff up again, @kerouac9

 

[kerouac9]

Where are you getting this from?

There were several rookies last year playing better than PJJ and Williams did as rookies.


Are you using Fantasy Football scores to justify you opinion again? DTD had a far better rookie season than Stills.

What does draft status have to do with production on the field when discussing Day 3 picks?

You’re such a staggering hypocrite demanding others provide evidence when you make an assertion in this very post without any.

But don’t take it up with me; take it up with Pro Football Reference.

Cumulative Approximate Value of the 2024 draft class: 18
Cumulative Approximate value of the 2023 draft class their rookie season: 23

 

[BACH]

You’re such a staggering hypocrite demanding others provide evidence when you make an assertion in this very post without any.

But don’t take it up with me; take it up with Pro Football Reference.

Cumulative Approximate Value of the 2024 draft class: 18
Cumulative Approximate value of the 2023 draft class their rookie season: 23

Please show me where I do not provide argumentation. The fact that you trust Fantasy Football scores to evaluate players over pff is on you not me.

Your links are not solving what you are claiming (another K9 classic).

I’ll post several pff grades showing that 2024 higher much higher performance grades than the 2023 rookies - once I actually see anything from you supporting your statement.

 

[kerouac9]

Grades don’t weight for positional value or playing time. AV does solve for that. Thats why it works better for this use case.

 

[BACH]

Grades don’t weight for positional value or playing time. AV does solve for that. Thats why it works better for this use case.

Your links are still not showing what you are claiming. One show the 2024 draft class, the other shows 2023 stats

And interesting that you decide to use in playing time in this case, when you have used so much time criticizing evaluating players when playing on a 4-13 team. I can probably link to 10 examples where you have called it useless. But in this case, it's apparently not useless. Aha! Please explain how playing time for a 4-13 team vs. a 8-9 team overrule projected potential for players. Or any team record. Mahomes had no potential based on this argumentation, because he sat as a rookie. That makes sense

But psychology 101 at least . A hypocrite calling everyone else hypocrites when having no answers.

I'll share arguments for the 2024 draft class outperforming the 2023 draft class as rookies, when you share something to support your opinion.

 

[kerouac9]

our links are still not showing what you are claiming. One show the 2024 draft class, the other shows 2023 stats

The AV column on the 2024 draft class is all the way on the right.

The 2023 stats if you sort for league years you can also find the AV on the right.

 

[kerouac9]

Please explain how playing time for a 4-13 team vs. a 8-9 team overrule projected potential for players.

I’m not talking about POTENTIAL; I’m talking about PRODUCTION.

Maybe evaluate the evidence before running your mouth?

 

[BACH]

I’m not talking about POTENTIAL; I’m talking about PRODUCTION.

Maybe evaluate the evidence before running your mouth?

Projected production is not potential? You statement was that the 2024 draft class was projected lower than the 2023 draft class.

You have nothing to base this on.

The links are STILL not showing what you claim. From the glossary explanation from you links.

Approx Val
wAV -- Weighted Career Approximate Value.
See the glossary for details on how we compute Approximate Value.
The career AV is computed by summing
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on

This has nothing to do with projections.

You are making stuff up

 

[BACH]

Also. Please explain why playing time as rookies affect future projected production.

It’s a hilarious claim after you spend the entire offseason saying that it doesn’t count and is useless to evaluate players. You used that argument against Kei’trel Clark multiple times and even a couple of posts up on playing time for bad teams doesn’t mean anything, but now are saying that Clark playing time makes the 2023 draft class better than the 2024

 

[kerouac9]

Is there anyone from the 2024 draft class you expect to be better than PJJ or Garrett Williams in 2025? This is my argument w/r/t projections.

Both should be Pro Bolwers.

 

[BACH]

Is there anyone from the 2024 draft class you expect to be better than PJJ or Garrett Williams in 2025? This is my argument w/r/t projections.

Both should be Pro Bolwers.

If this is your statement, then it’s hard not to agree based on talent/potential, production so far and the fact that they are 3rd year players not 2nd players.

Especially PJJ. I do believe PJJ will prove himself as the best MO single draft pick so far. A clear top 10 player/top 5 maybe (he’s already rated as #11) at a top 3 value position should make him the highest value player on the team after Kyler.


But your original claim was that the 2023 draft class projected was better than the 2024. And you phrased it in a way that you had 3rd party metrics to support it.


What you are saying now has nothing to do with that claim. And the metrics available, while not perfect, suggest the opposite.


If you measure in terms of being a quality NFL player based on their rookie season….


MHJ and DTD played significantly better than anyone in the 2023 draft class as rookies.


Melton actually had a better rating than Williams as a rookie.


Adams scored almost the same as PJJ as rookies. Obviously, I do not believe Adams will be better than PJJ, but his overall rating was so high due to already looking dominant in the run game (he just sucked in pass-pro).


If you want to truly to evaluate draft classes then the consensus is that you have to wait until after the 3rd year due to development potential. I believe the is especially true for the regime, because there is a clear preference for more developmental players with high RAS scores. So we cannot evaluate the 2023 until end of the year and the 2024 until the end of next year for sure. You cannot compare a 3rd year class 1-1 with a 2nd year class.


I think based on the potential and the production so far that the 2024 class will be better than the 2023 draft class. That is not the same as producing the best player. On paper MHJ has a higher ceiling than PJJ, but based on what we have seen, I personally think PJJ has top 5 potential and MHJ top 10 potential. DTD rated as one of the best safeties in the league when playing and far better than Williams even did as a rookie.


The 2024 will produce several really good NFL player IMO. A top 10 WR in MHJ, a just below pro-bowl level DT and CB in Dr and Melton. An above average G in Adams. A starting RB in Benson. A back-up TE than could start in half the league in Reiman. A Pro-bowl S in DTD. Hence a better class. And this is my guess. We’ll know after next season.


But you might have a point that the 2023 class will produce more elite players as PJJ and Williams could be top 5 at high value positions. We just do not know yet. AND it was not what was being discussed.

 

[kerouac9]

MHJ and DTD played significantly better than anyone in the 2023 draft class as rookies.

Nah. PJJ at RT was better than MHJ as a rookie. I don’t care what your fake grades say — my eye test is just as relevant. No one was calling Paris soft after his rookie season.

The legend of Taylor-Demerson’s rookie season has become completely unhinged. Five passes defensed and a forced fumble doesn’t really compare to either what Garrett Williams produced in a more limited sample size or what Stills did in a similar exposure.

Approximate value reflects this.

 

[BACH]

Nah. PJJ at RT was better than MHJ as a rookie. I don’t care what your fake grades say — my eye test is just as relevant. No one was calling Paris soft after his rookie season.

The legend of Taylor-Demerson’s rookie season has become completely unhinged. Five passes defensed and a forced fumble doesn’t really compare to either what Garrett Williams produced in a more limited sample size or what Stills did in a similar exposure.

Approximate value reflects this.

Easy. Then show that instead of posting irrelevant links…

And this still has nothing to do with comparing overall draft classes.

But no point in discussing this anymore. When you disqualify metrics widely used across the board by experts, commentators etc. with your personal eyesight then you are just making it up as you go.

You are entitled to your opinion, but then stop blasting everyone else’s opinion by saying they are lying based on metrics when the only metric you have is your personal opinion that contradicts widely accepted metrics.

 

[JosiahLee]

And this could be the case, but I will wait for it to happen first.

Yeah I’m feeling weirdly pessimistic. I believe they have improved, but there’s a ton that could go wrong. For example:

1) Has the MHJ and Kyler connection actually improved?

2) I hate that Nolen isn’t playing….And still no Ojulari. And what wasted money spent on Justin Jones & Bilal Nichols. And is D Rob going to do anything or be a first round bust? Maybe this D Line will only go from god-awful to just mediocre.

3) The CBs could be shaky. Starling Thomas was better than people give him credit for and SMB for all his issues, was at least a starter.

I really am hoping for a playoff appearance but we’ll see. It’s now or never for Kyler. No more late season collapses for the love of God.

 

[oaken1]

Yeah I’m feeling weirdly pessimistic. I believe they have improved, but there’s a ton that could go wrong. For example:

1) Has the MHJ and Kyler connection actually improved?

2) I hate that Nolen isn’t playing….And still no Ojulari. And what wasted money spent on Justin Jones & Bilal Nichols. And is D Rob going to do anything or be a first round bust? Maybe this D Line will only go from god-awful to just mediocre.

3) The CBs could be shaky. Starling Thomas was better than people give him credit for and SMB for all his issues, was at least a starter.

I really am hoping for a playoff appearance but we’ll see. It’s now or never for Kyler. No more late season collapses for the love of God.

LMAO at the cardinals fans annual, pre setting the doom and gloom expectations.

Relax Josiah, these Redbirds are good. we will get to celebrate a lot of winning this year

 

[CardNots]

LMAO at the cardinals fans annual, pre setting the doom and gloom expectations.

Relax Josiah, these Redbirds are good. we will get to celebrate a lot of winning this year

Hope is still just hope until we see different good or bad.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yeah I’m feeling weirdly pessimistic. I believe they have improved, but there’s a ton that could go wrong. For example:

1) Has the MHJ and Kyler connection actually improved?

2) I hate that Nolen isn’t playing….And still no Ojulari. And what wasted money spent on Justin Jones & Bilal Nichols. And is D Rob going to do anything or be a first round bust? Maybe this D Line will only go from god-awful to just mediocre.

3) The CBs could be shaky. Starling Thomas was better than people give him credit for and SMB for all his issues, was at least a starter.

I really am hoping for a playoff appearance but we’ll see. It’s now or never for Kyler. No more late season collapses for the love of God.

Eh I think Starling Thomas was WORSE than people are saying. Is he an NFL player? Yes. Is he particularly good? No.

Getting Melton some good PT and drafting Will Johnson should mostly alleviate their losses. And stopping the insanity of moving, Garrett Williams off the field should really help. Williams was probably the Cardinals best defensive player last year.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Nah. PJJ at RT was better than MHJ as a rookie. I don’t care what your fake grades say — my eye test is just as relevant. No one was calling Paris soft after his rookie season.

Very scientific LOL. I'd say they were probably comparable.

The legend of Taylor-Demerson’s rookie season has become completely unhinged. Five passes defensed and a forced fumble doesn’t really compare to either what Garrett Williams produced in a more limited sample size or what Stills did in a similar exposure.

Approximate value reflects this.

Agree on DTD. He was good but he didn't really play much. I have a lot of hope for the kid. Williams gave up a sub 80 QB Rating on more snaps which is doggone good for even a veteran.