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UNC basketball had a chance to continue elevating its seed line for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but the Tar Heels took a step back in a loss at Miami.
Ranked No. 13 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and No. 11 in the AP Top 15, the Tar Heels (19-5, 7-4 ACC) followed an electric comeback win against No. 4 Duke (22-2, 11-1) with an uninspiring effort against the Hurricanes (19-5, 8-3).
Miami is projected to earn a March Madness bid, so it’s not a bad loss for UNC, but it will likely push the Tar Heels beyond the top 16 in the race to earn a seed between Nos. 1-4.
TROUBLING NUMBERS FOR TAR HEELS: Why UNC basketball lost to Miami, couldn’t avoid post-Duke hangover
WILSON INJURY: Caleb Wilson injury update: UNC basketball star hurts hand vs Miami
Here's a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels, as of Feb. 11.
The Tar Heels are currently 26th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 24 games, UNC has a 5-5 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 14-0 record in Quadrants 2-4. Five of the Tar Heels’ final seven games are currently projected to be Q1 opportunities. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.
ESPN: Prior to the Miami loss, Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels listed as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, starting things off in Tampa, Fla., against No. 13 seed Troy. But the loss likely bumps UNC back to the 5 line.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the West Region, playing one of the First Four winners. In this scenario, the Tar Heels will face No. 11 seed Saint Mary’s or No. 11 seed TCU.
USA TODAY: These projections have UNC as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, facing No. 13 Troy in Greenville.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the West Region, facing off against No. 12 Stephen F. Austin in Portland.
FOX Sports: These projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, facing No. 13 seed UNC Wilmington.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 23rd in resume quality, projected to be a No. 6-8 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 seed.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 109 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 4 or 5 seed.
Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections on Feb. 11
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Ranked No. 13 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and No. 11 in the AP Top 15, the Tar Heels (19-5, 7-4 ACC) followed an electric comeback win against No. 4 Duke (22-2, 11-1) with an uninspiring effort against the Hurricanes (19-5, 8-3).
Miami is projected to earn a March Madness bid, so it’s not a bad loss for UNC, but it will likely push the Tar Heels beyond the top 16 in the race to earn a seed between Nos. 1-4.
TROUBLING NUMBERS FOR TAR HEELS: Why UNC basketball lost to Miami, couldn’t avoid post-Duke hangover
WILSON INJURY: Caleb Wilson injury update: UNC basketball star hurts hand vs Miami
Here's a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels, as of Feb. 11.
UNC basketball NCAA Tournament resume
The Tar Heels are currently 26th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 24 games, UNC has a 5-5 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 14-0 record in Quadrants 2-4. Five of the Tar Heels’ final seven games are currently projected to be Q1 opportunities. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.
UNC basketball NCAA tournament projections, latest bracketology
ESPN: Prior to the Miami loss, Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels listed as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, starting things off in Tampa, Fla., against No. 13 seed Troy. But the loss likely bumps UNC back to the 5 line.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the West Region, playing one of the First Four winners. In this scenario, the Tar Heels will face No. 11 seed Saint Mary’s or No. 11 seed TCU.
USA TODAY: These projections have UNC as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, facing No. 13 Troy in Greenville.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the West Region, facing off against No. 12 Stephen F. Austin in Portland.
FOX Sports: These projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, facing No. 13 seed UNC Wilmington.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 23rd in resume quality, projected to be a No. 6-8 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 seed.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 109 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 4 or 5 seed.
Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections on Feb. 11
Continue reading...
