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The metrics don’t love UNC basketball, which has some quality wins but has also struggled with blowing out mediocre teams.
Ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches poll and No. 14 in the AP Top 25, the Tar Heels (18-4, 6-3 ACC) remain on the fringe of snagging a top-four seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
UNC started February with an 87-77 win against Syracuse, but the Tar Heels had a 32-point lead late in that game. A monster opportunity awaits against No. 4 Duke (21-1, 10-0) on Saturday, Feb. 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in the latest edition of college basketball’s top rivalry.
Here's a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels, as of Feb. 4.
The Tar Heels are currently 26th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 21 games, UNC has a 4-3 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 14-1 record in Quadrants 2-4. The loss at Stanford dropped to a Q2 loss because the Cardinal is currently 77th in the NET. A win against Duke, which is No. 3 in the NET, would give the Tar Heels one of the best wins nationally. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
FULL BRACKET: March Madness bracketology: Houston, Florida rise in NCAA tournament
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Wednesday, Feb. 4.
ESPN: Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels listed as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, starting things off in Greenville, S.C., against No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio). Lunardi projects UNC’s highest possible seed as a No. 4.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the East Region, playing one of the First Four winners. In this scenario, the Tar Heels will face No. 11 seed Missouri or No. 11 seed Seton Hall.
USA TODAY: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the South Region, facing No. 12 Liberty in Greenville.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the West Region, facing off against No. 11 seed Texas or Ohio State in Philadelphia.
FOX Sports: These projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 4 seed in the West Region, facing No. 13 seed Stephen F. Austin.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 23rd in resume quality, projected to be a No. 6-8 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 or 7 seed.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 104 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 5 or 6 seed.
Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections on Feb. 4
Continue reading...
Ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches poll and No. 14 in the AP Top 25, the Tar Heels (18-4, 6-3 ACC) remain on the fringe of snagging a top-four seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
UNC started February with an 87-77 win against Syracuse, but the Tar Heels had a 32-point lead late in that game. A monster opportunity awaits against No. 4 Duke (21-1, 10-0) on Saturday, Feb. 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in the latest edition of college basketball’s top rivalry.
Here's a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels, as of Feb. 4.
UNC basketball NCAA Tournament resume
The Tar Heels are currently 26th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 21 games, UNC has a 4-3 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 14-1 record in Quadrants 2-4. The loss at Stanford dropped to a Q2 loss because the Cardinal is currently 77th in the NET. A win against Duke, which is No. 3 in the NET, would give the Tar Heels one of the best wins nationally. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
FULL BRACKET: March Madness bracketology: Houston, Florida rise in NCAA tournament
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Wednesday, Feb. 4.
UNC basketball NCAA tournament projections, latest bracketology
ESPN: Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels listed as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, starting things off in Greenville, S.C., against No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio). Lunardi projects UNC’s highest possible seed as a No. 4.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the East Region, playing one of the First Four winners. In this scenario, the Tar Heels will face No. 11 seed Missouri or No. 11 seed Seton Hall.
USA TODAY: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the South Region, facing No. 12 Liberty in Greenville.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the West Region, facing off against No. 11 seed Texas or Ohio State in Philadelphia.
FOX Sports: These projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 4 seed in the West Region, facing No. 13 seed Stephen F. Austin.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 23rd in resume quality, projected to be a No. 6-8 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 or 7 seed.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 104 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 5 or 6 seed.
Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections on Feb. 4
Continue reading...
