The Realities of EVs

Folster

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I thought this was interesting and things I thought many were overlooking during the recent EV hype. It's why I always looked to the actions of the Japanese automakers like Toyota. They never went all in on EVs and were quite measured exploring other alternative fuel vehicles.

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MadCardDisease

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Am I supposed to take a guy wearing a jester hat, while standing in a snowstorm, talking about EVs seriously? :rolleyes:

Having owned a Tesla Model Y for 3 years now I can speak to Tesla:

First off I just want to clear the misconception that Tesla owners buy their cars because they are "saving the world". Maybe for some people but I bought my Tesla because:
1. I wanted to "save at the pump"
2. It's a crazy fun car to drive
3. It's practically zero maintenance.
4. I get to drive in the carpool lane here in Az

As for the "Tesla's Significant drawdown in capacity": I just went to the Tesla website and there is still a 1-2 month wait time for the most popular models (Model Y and Model 3). Since Tesla first started selling cars in 2017 they have sold a total of 5,000,000 EVs worldwide. In 2024 Tesla is projecting sales of 2,100,000 vehicles. I don't think they are ramping down anytime soon. LOL

Now consider that even the Hideous Cybertruck (Yes I think it is the ugliest truck ever) has over 2,000,000 pre orders. Tesla plans to make around 375,000 Cybertrucks a year which currently puts the backorder on it to 5 years. Again they are not ramping down anytime soon.

I don't know what this guy is talking about regarding infrastructure. 99% of EV owners charge their car at home everyday. I only charge my car to 80% and I can easily go anywhere in the valley without a care. On occasion we will do a road trip maybe once every month or two where we will use a supercharger. I have never had to wait for a supercharger in the 3 years that I have owned my Tesla.

This guy may be correct about other car companies who are struggling to catch up with Tesla. I know that GM is having a hard time ramping up mass production of it's "Ultium" battery cells. What people forget is that these other companies are 5-10 years behind Tesla in development and mass production of these products.

With respects to raw materials there is a need for Lithium in particular. However it's not like Lithium is a rare material. Musk tweeted back in April 2022. “There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but the pace of extraction/refinement is slow.” It's just a matter of ramping up the extraction and refinement to meet demand. Most lithium mining happens in Australia from hard-rock sources and in Chile from brines. And currently 70% of Lithium refining happens in China. However about 6 months ago Tesla broke ground on a Lithium refinery in Texas to dramatically reduce that reliance on China. Well at least for Tesla.

 
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Folster

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I think you're having trouble grasping scale. EVs are currently only 1% of the vehicles on the road in the US. Plugging in your EV works when they're only 1% of the 278 million cars in the US. We don't have the power grid capacity to support everyone plugging in their car, not even close.

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As you can see the US hasn't even really increased electricity generation since the mid-2000s and there aren't major plans to increase production to be able meet demand needed to charge a nation of EVs.

According to the EPA, every gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.7 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity. Based on these metrics, an equivalent of approximately 4,800 billion kWh was used to fuel gasoline vehicles over that year.
According to the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, EVs are roughly two and a half to six times more efficient using energy from the power grid than conventional cars are using gasoline. Given that comparison, it would take roughly 800 to 1,900 billion kWh of electricity to power all vehicles if they were EVs.
I'm not seeing that kind of capacity come on line in the next 10 years unless the US gets serious about nuclear.

Scale also comes into play with raw materials like Lithium and other required elements.

But I'm glad an EV works for you and other people. They are really cool and have a legitimate application for many. The point is they are not the climate change panacea that many claimed or the government desires. I think it will become more apparent as the years go by and the reality of EVs fail to fulfill the grand promises.
 
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MadCardDisease

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I think you're having trouble grasping scale. EVs are currently only 1% of the vehicles on the road in the US. Plugging in your EV works when they're only 1% of the 278 million cars in the US. We don't have the power grid capacity to support everyone plugging in their car, not even close.

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As you can see the US hasn't even really increased electricity generation since the mid-2000s and there aren't major plans to increase production to be able meet demand needed to charge a nation of EVs.



I'm not seeing that kind of capacity come on line in the next 10 years unless the US gets serious about nuclear.

People act like EVs are going to replace every single gas powered car in just a few years. That isn't going to happen. It would take decades to replace every gas powered car with an EV.


Consumer reports has a great article on this dispelling the myths:


Electrifying 100% of passenger vehicles on the road by 2050 will only require about 1% per year growth in electricity generation


Summary

Electrifying the entire US light-duty vehicle fleet by 2050 will require less than 1% growth per year in overall electricity generation. Furthermore, complying with the EPA’s latest GHG standards for light duty vehicles will create only a 6% increase in electricity demand by the end of 2032. So, the answer is yes—the grid can absolutely handle all those EVs.
 

Muggz

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Here's the reality of EVs.
I charge my car for free with solar from the house.

I didn't buy my car to save the world or save money on gas. I'm not worried about what rare earth metals it needs to run or how many people died making it.
Honestly I couldn't care less.
I bought it to see the looks on the faces of the D bags in the BMWs that have been disrupting my commute on Scottsdale road for the last 40 years.
Suck it
 

Muggz

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People act like EVs are going to replace every single gas powered car in just a few years. That isn't going to happen. It would take decades to replace every gas powered car with an EV.


Consumer reports has a great article on this dispelling the myths:

Honestly after owning 3 electric cars I think the best way is with hybrid where the gas engine recharges the batteries.
BMW did it with that goofy car that Larry David drove on CYE.
Chevy did it with the Volt.
 
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