The NFL Draft: Creates Parity, uh, No

[Mitch]

As we all know the NFL Draft, designed to give the worst NFL teams the first shot at the best college players, is one of the league's most concerted efforts to create parity and an equal playing field for all 32 teams.

Most people believe it does.

The proof that it doesn't?

While it SEEMS to cater to the downtrodden franchises...it actually caters more favorably to the league's elite franchises.

Here are the reasons why:

1. Even though the worst teams draft first...they have to shell out exhorbitant sums to get the top players in the draft signed. In general, the worst teams are OVERPAYING for unknown quantities...and in the process are chewing up valuable chunks of their salary caps in order to do it.

2. The draft is a crapshoot...while the top rated college players each year APPEAR to be top NFL prospects, the reality is few of them deserve top money. Consider the likes of Ryan Leaf, for example.

3. The elite teams profit from the reality that there are usually well over 100 bona fide NFL prospects to choose from in each draft...AND...the players that are drafted late in the first round are not difficult to sign and they do not command top dollar. For example, last year the Patriots drafted guard Logan Mankins at #32. Logan Mankins came right into the Patriots as a starter...and a good one at that. Mankins appears to have All-Pro potential. Credit the Patriots' scouting department...Mankins at #32 was an outstanding pick and one of the very best values in the draft.
Conversely, the Lions drafted WR Mike Williams in 2005...who they paid top ten money for...and while Williams has some talent, there's a chance he may not even start this year. His rookie year was less than productive. This is a classic scenario of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

One might say, well Detroit should have drafted better or more wisely. Yes, but one of the biggest problems about the draft is PROJECTIONS...with all the pundits out there and all the hype that goes into the draft, teams are lambasted by the media when they draft players in slots where they were not projected.

Had, for example, Detroit selected Mankins in the top ten...they would have been unmercifully beseiged with criticism...and yet, wouldn't Detroit be a better football team today with Mankins in its lineup than Williams? And wouldn't they be getting more bang for their buck? (but here again is an issue...teams don't want to pay guards top ten money...guards are not sexy picks...but ask Mike Holmgren what Steve Hutchinson meant to the Seahawks' success....Mike Williams was a sexy pick)

By the way, Mankins was projected as a 3rd round prospect by several draft publications, including the Sporting News.

4. Compensatory Picks...favor the NFL's best teams. Every year Pittsburgh seems to get three or four compensatory picks...often a third rounder or a fourth. Yes, Pittsburgh loses free agents which is why they get compensatory picks...but they pick up excellent players and depth in the draft each year and seem to have more draft picks than anyone else each year...and because the draft is a crapshoot, the more players a team can draft, the better thye chance a team will hit the jackpot.

So, how should this be changed?

1. The price tags for college players must come way down, especially at the top of the draft. For Vernon Davis to come into the NFL as the highest paid TE EVER...is a joke.

(NOTE: as a model...no incoming college player should make more than the MEDIAN salary on a team)

2. The 1st round salaries should be slotted and pretty much equal...2nd round the same, and so on.

3. Eliminate compensatory picks. Yes, team lose free agents...BUT, that gives teams room under the salary cap to sign free agents of their own.

 

[phillycard]

Now that you think of it, that has some merit. I had no idea Davis was the highest paid TE!

 

[BACH]

Very interesting post, Walter.

I totally agree, that the price tag for rookies has to go way down, because the amount of money these kids get, without having played a single down in the NFL, is getting out of hand.

To some extent I agree that the draft is a crapshoot, and that team drafting in the top 5 year after year is getting punished by being forced to pay huge amounts of money to "lottery tickets".

But at the same time, I don't think you can ignore that an effective front office can use the draft to turn the franchise completely around. The Eagles have arguably the best front office in the league. They made the most of their high draft picks by getting Tra Thomas, McNabb and Simon in their three years in the cellar. The Colts hit jackpot with Payton and Edge in the two years they had a top five pick.

Hopefully, five years from now we can look back and say that getting Fitz, Rolle and Leinart in three consecutive years was the best thing to happen for this franchise.

 

[joeshmo]

I find it highly doubtfull that Mankins in Detriot would be nearly as good as he is in NE. NE talent level around Mankins is far different then that of which he would be surronded with in Detriot. The same can also be said for coaching, leadership, winning culture, and so on. Bad example IMO.

There is a reason that teams are picking high each year. Talent Level, Coaching, culture, and scouting.

If all 32 teams had equal levels of talent in their Coaching departments and the scouting departments the draft would be the perfect move in creating parity. But not all coaching staffs and scouting staffs are created equal, so theres the rub.

Also top 10 picks becoming all pro's is a far greater % then picks 11-32.

As for your suggestions for change.

1. Lowering the price tags to at or below the median of a the NFL at any given position. That is never ever going to happen ever.

2. Slotting I completely agree. But here is the problem. After a year when contracts can officially be renegotiated we are going to have a lot of agents and players crying about their contracts becuase they didnt get what they wanted in the first place. It will open a whole can of worms. So I suggest a middle ground type of slotting system not a complete one like the NBA uses. First the only slotting will be on Gauranteed money and years of contract, both will be decided before the draft based on some sort of formula they already use for rookie cap. For example 1st rounders can only sign a 5 year deal, 2nd rounders can only sign a 4 year deal, and 3-7th rounders can only sign a 3 year deal. So with Gauranteed money and years of contract already decided and kept at a minimum the only thing to negotiate is escalators and incentives. Also you cannot renogiate until after 2 years of service instead of just 1.

3. I agree about the comp picks. But the players union has in there contract that the draft must have 255 picks selected in each draft. Which would mean instead of comp picks you would have to add a round to the draft, which would be a total of 256 picks thus being in line with the CBA still. So getting rid of comp picks you would have to add an 8th round.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I find it highly doubtfull that Mankins in Detriot would be nearly as good as he is in NE. NE talent level around Mankins is far different then that of which he would be surronded with in Detriot. The same can also be said for coaching, leadership, winning culture, and so on. Bad example IMO.

There is a reason that teams are picking high each year. Talent Level, Coaching, culture, and scouting.

If all 32 teams had equal levels of talent in their Coaching departments and the scouting departments the draft would be the perfect move in creating parity. But not all coaching staffs and scouting staffs are created equal, so theres the rub.

Also top 10 picks becoming all pro's is a far greater % then picks 11-32.

As for your suggestions for change.

1. Lowering the price tags to at or below the median of a the NFL at any given position. That is never ever going to happen ever.

2. Slotting I completely agree. But here is the problem. After a year when contracts can officially be renegotiated we are going to have a lot of agents and players crying about their contracts becuase they didnt get what they wanted in the first place. It will open a whole can of worms. So I suggest a middle ground type of slotting system not a complete one like the NBA uses. First the only slotting will be on Gauranteed money and years of contract, both will be decided before the draft based on some sort of formula they already use for rookie cap. For example 1st rounders can only sign a 5 year deal, 2nd rounders can only sign a 4 year deal, and 3-7th rounders can only sign a 3 year deal. So with Gauranteed money and years of contract already decided and kept at a minimum the only thing to negotiate is escalators and incentives. Also you cannot renogiate until after 2 years of service instead of just 1.

3. I agree about the comp picks. But the players union has in there contract that the draft must have 255 picks selected in each draft. Which would mean instead of comp picks you would have to add a round to the draft, which would be a total of 256 picks thus being in line with the CBA still. So getting rid of comp picks you would have to add an 8th round.

Excellent post!

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

The funny thing about Mitch's post is the he offered up his own opinions as proof. The reasons that the Cardinals, Lions, and other NFL whipping boys are bad every year while other teams are not is because they have more skilled talent evaluators and coaches not because they have a greater selection of more talented players to choose from.

 

[CardinalChris]

it is a double edged sword. Yes they are overpaying an unknown quantity, but the majority of the players (round 2 and lower) are being UNDERPAID, at least for the fist 5 years. For instance, does anybody here think Karlos Dansby is worth more than he has made the previous 2 years? This is what helps NFL teams keep their payrolls in check. I do wish that the NFL had gone to a slotted system, but the lack of ability to get the CBA completed in a timely manner meant that this issue was barely addressed. In fact, the only changes I heard of was the contract length limit dropped to 6 years.

 

[vinnymac]

i like the way the draft is set up now. i like the way the league is set up for competention. just to know that your team is a couple of draft picks and free agents away from competing for the playoffs is the reason why the nfl is the number one watched sporting event in the united states. WWE and ECW are not a sproting event. it is an act.

 

[Skkorpion]

Also top 10 picks becoming all pro's is a far greater % then picks 11-32.

Bold statement that is completely unsubstantiated.

TSN had an article a few years ago showing that there were more 2nd round picks than 1st rounders in the hall of fame.

Just from personal observation, I have long agreed with Walter's basic premise which states that high first round picks are no better than low first rounders but they just cost more and hamstring the teams picking high.

 

[BACH]

TSN had an article a few years ago showing that there were more 2nd round picks than 1st rounders in the hall of fame.

IMO one of the reasons for that, and a reason overlooked when Walter says a high draft pick is a punishment, is that 2nd rounders aren't being rushed into the line-up. High draft picks have more pressure and are expected to produce from day one, while lower draft picks are allowed to learn from the bench and develop without being forced into the line-up.

 

[Pariah]

So if a top-10 pick doesn't go the Hall of Fame, he's a bust? You can have a very successful career and not go to the Hall.

 

[joeshmo]

Bold statement that is completely unsubstantiated.

Saying my statement is unsubstantiated is very unsubstantiated on your part.

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=66080&highlight=rounders

Plus not to mention that the draft compared to the draft of those that are in the hall of fame are 2 completely different animals. Where as back in the day scouting was a tough job compared to todays information, travel, and electronic age. Teams have far, far more info on the players then they had even 10 years ago.

 

[kerouac9]

Skkorp, I had a list all laid out of the 2002 - 1999 drafts, and 55% of the Top 10 picks had made the Pro Bowl or were Elite players, but only 43% of the Other 22/21 could claim similar success (and those numbers tip even further when you start talking about the Top 15.

The real problem with Mitch's post is that he seems to assume that teams like the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers have been on top forever. Poppycock. The Steelers were drafting #11 overall in the 2004 draft when they picked Roethlisberger. In 2003, they picked #16 and got Polamalu, who was somewhat panned when he was drafted. The Colts built their offense on top picks James and Manning. The Colts were an embarassing franchise until they got the #1 overall pick and took Manning. The Falcons were a sad franchise before they took Mike Vick with the #1 pick in the draft--and the Chargers went from worst to first based on the bounty they received in trading that pick and getting Tomlinson and Brees. The Patriots Dynastic defense is founded on #6 overall pick Richard Seymour in 2001 and was founded on the elite talents of 1994 4th overall pick Willie McGinest.

 

[kerouac9]

And overall, it still costs less to have an elite player playing out his Top 10 rookie contract on your roster than it does to have the same player playing under his free agent contract.

Vernon Davis is a freakish athlete, and is being paid more as the wideout he'll be playing like than the tight end he's listed as. If anything, I think the fact that Davis' contract could be greater than any other tight end in the NFL is more indicative of how underpaid elite tight ends are paid than anything else.

 

[WildBB]

it is a double edged sword. Yes they are overpaying an unknown quantity, but the majority of the players (round 2 and lower) are being UNDERPAID, at least for the fist 5 years. For instance, does anybody here think Karlos Dansby is worth more than he has made the previous 2 years? This is what helps NFL teams keep their payrolls in check. I do wish that the NFL had gone to a slotted system, but the lack of ability to get the CBA completed in a timely manner meant that this issue was barely addressed. In fact, the only changes I heard of was the contract length limit dropped to 6 years.

Very valid points. I think the main angle of his post were the 1st rounders and how they're not worth the money they;re getting. Way overhyped prospects. They need to do something to change the payouts of 1st round picks. Maybe 1-5 recieve equal contracts with bonus' varying specific % such as #1 getting 8 million #2 getting 7.8 million and so on (regardless of players position).

The next yr contracts and bonuses go up like cost of living increases , like 3.5% or whatever. This way everyone knows what they have coming, and are lucky to be able to showcase themselves in the NFL! (Leinart note)

 

[MadCardDisease]

If what Mitch says was actually true, then teams would trade away thier early picks in a heartbeat.

We all know that isn't the case.

 

[jw7]

If what Mitch says was actually true, then teams would trade away thier early picks in a heartbeat.

We all know that isn't the case.

Not saying that I disagree with you but the fact that there are not a lot of high draft trades in the NFL might actually support what Mitch is saying. That there is not a hot market for high draft picks, since teams don't value them nearly as much as proven players.

 

[kerouac9]

Not saying that I disagree with you but the fact that there are not a lot of high draft trades in the NFL might actually support what Mitch is saying. That there is not a hot market for high draft picks, since teams don't value them nearly as much as proven players.

But there is. There was a trade for Eli Manning. There was a trade for Michael Vick. Those were #1 overall picks. Further down, there was the Cards' disasterous trade of the #6 overall pick. In 2002 the Chiefs and Cowboys swapped the #6 and #8 overall picks so that the Chiefs could move up and get Ryan Sims. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the #7 overall pick and a linebacker in 2005. The Browns traded up one spots in the 2004 draft to get Kellen Winslow. In 2003, the Jets traded from 22nd overall to 4th overall to get Dewayne Robertson.

High draft pick trades happen all the time.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Not saying that I disagree with you but the fact that there are not a lot of high draft trades in the NFL might actually support what Mitch is saying. That there is not a hot market for high draft picks, since teams don't value them nearly as much as proven players.

Teams want too much. That is why you don't see that many trades. No one wants to give up multiple high round pics to move up a few spots.

 

[Goldfield]

As we all know the NFL Draft, designed to give the worst NFL teams the first shot at the best college players, is one of the league's most concerted efforts to create parity and an equal playing field for all 32 teams.

Most people believe it does.

The proof that it doesn't?

While it SEEMS to cater to the downtrodden franchises...it actually caters more favorably to the league's elite franchises.

Here are the reasons why:

1. Even though the worst teams draft first...they have to shell out exhorbitant sums to get the top players in the draft signed. In general, the worst teams are OVERPAYING for unknown quantities...and in the process are chewing up valuable chunks of their salary caps in order to do it.

2. The draft is a crapshoot...while the top rated college players each year APPEAR to be top NFL prospects, the reality is few of them deserve top money. Consider the likes of Ryan Leaf, for example.

3. The elite teams profit from the reality that there are usually well over 100 bona fide NFL prospects to choose from in each draft...AND...the players that are drafted late in the first round are not difficult to sign and they do not command top dollar. For example, last year the Patriots drafted guard Logan Mankins at #32. Logan Mankins came right into the Patriots as a starter...and a good one at that. Mankins appears to have All-Pro potential. Credit the Patriots' scouting department...Mankins at #32 was an outstanding pick and one of the very best values in the draft.
Conversely, the Lions drafted WR Mike Williams in 2005...who they paid top ten money for...and while Williams has some talent, there's a chance he may not even start this year. His rookie year was less than productive. This is a classic scenario of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

One might say, well Detroit should have drafted better or more wisely. Yes, but one of the biggest problems about the draft is PROJECTIONS...with all the pundits out there and all the hype that goes into the draft, teams are lambasted by the media when they draft players in slots where they were not projected.

Had, for example, Detroit selected Mankins in the top ten...they would have been unmercifully beseiged with criticism...and yet, wouldn't Detroit be a better football team today with Mankins in its lineup than Williams? And wouldn't they be getting more bang for their buck? (but here again is an issue...teams don't want to pay guards top ten money...guards are not sexy picks...but ask Mike Holmgren what Steve Hutchinson meant to the Seahawks' success....Mike Williams was a sexy pick)

By the way, Mankins was projected as a 3rd round prospect by several draft publications, including the Sporting News.

4. Compensatory Picks...favor the NFL's best teams. Every year Pittsburgh seems to get three or four compensatory picks...often a third rounder or a fourth. Yes, Pittsburgh loses free agents which is why they get compensatory picks...but they pick up excellent players and depth in the draft each year and seem to have more draft picks than anyone else each year...and because the draft is a crapshoot, the more players a team can draft, the better thye chance a team will hit the jackpot.

So, how should this be changed?

1. The price tags for college players must come way down, especially at the top of the draft. For Vernon Davis to come into the NFL as the highest paid TE EVER...is a joke.

(NOTE: as a model...no incoming college player should make more than the MEDIAN salary on a team)

2. The 1st round salaries should be slotted and pretty much equal...2nd round the same, and so on.

3. Eliminate compensatory picks. Yes, team lose free agents...BUT, that gives teams room under the salary cap to sign free agents of their own.

Actully Compensatory Picks are not given just for what you lose but the NFL also looks at the value of players you sign to balance themselves out.

So if you lose afew guys & sign afew guys its a wash, unless you are losing a probowler without bringing in one.

 

[BigDavis75]

Skkorp, I had a list all laid out of the 2002 - 1999 drafts, and 55% of the Top 10 picks had made the Pro Bowl or were Elite players, but only 43% of the Other 22/21 could claim similar success (and those numbers tip even further when you start talking about the Top 15.

The real problem with Mitch's post is that he seems to assume that teams like the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers have been on top forever. Poppycock. The Steelers were drafting #11 overall in the 2004 draft when they picked Roethlisberger. In 2003, they picked #16 and got Polamalu, who was somewhat panned when he was drafted. The Colts built their offense on top picks James and Manning. The Colts were an embarassing franchise until they got the #1 overall pick and took Manning. The Falcons were a sad franchise before they took Mike Vick with the #1 pick in the draft--and the Chargers went from worst to first based on the bounty they received in trading that pick and getting Tomlinson and Brees. The Patriots Dynastic defense is founded on #6 overall pick Richard Seymour in 2001 and was founded on the elite talents of 1994 4th overall pick Willie McGinest.

I'm almost certain that the Steelers traded up to pick Polamalu in that draft. Also, the Steelers HAVE been the face of longstanding NFL success. They are good nearly every year and have the best owner and probably the best front office in football. The teams with the best longevity draft well, period.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm almost certain that the Steelers traded up to pick Polamalu in that draft. Also, the Steelers HAVE been the face of longstanding NFL success. They are good nearly every year and have the best owner and probably the best front office in football. The teams with the best longevity draft well, period.

That's true, but it's organizations that start drafting well that quickly become dynastic. The Colts started around two Top 5 picks. The Steelers are actually the best argument in favor of compensatory picks, because they're almost always losers in free agency. They're a great drafting team, and I don't think adding the occaisional extra fourth-round pick is really what's keeping them on top of the AFC.

 

[Mitch]

K9...good points, man...my question is...the Steelers won the Super Bowl (and are seemingly good year after year) and they lost WR/PR Antwan Randle-El; RB Jerome Bettis, S Chris Hope, QB Tommy Maddox, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen and CB Willie Williams...which, other than Randal-El and to a lesser degree, Chris Hope...no major losses...the Steelers used their 2nd rounder to move up to #25 to draft WR/KR Santonio Holmes and STILL had TWO 3rd Rounders, TWO 4th Rounders, TWO 5th Rounders, ONE 6th, and ONE 7th.

Ain't fair, man. Ain't fair.

My point is...teams like Pittsburgh always seem to have good depth...and this is a major reason why. The forlorn franchises are usually the weakest in depth because they have to overpay for their top choices and they typically don't get the compensatory picks the good teams do.

 

[kerouac9]

K9...good points, man...my question is...the Steelers won the Super Bowl (and are seemingly good year after year) and they lost WR/PR Antwan Randle-El; RB Jerome Bettis, S Chris Hope, QB Tommy Maddox, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen and CB Willie Williams...which, other than Randal-El and to a lesser degree, Chris Hope...no major losses...the Steelers used their 2nd rounder to move up to #25 to draft WR/KR Santonio Holmes and STILL had TWO 3rd Rounders, TWO 4th Rounders, TWO 5th Rounders, ONE 6th, and ONE 7th.

Ain't fair, man. Ain't fair.

My point is...teams like Pittsburgh always seem to have good depth...and this is a major reason why. The forlorn franchises are usually the weakest in depth because they have to overpay for their top choices and they typically don't get the compensatory picks the good teams do.

The compensatory picks are assigned on losses not for the current free agency period, but from the prior period. In 2005 free agency, the Steelers lost Pro Bowl outside linebacker Kendrell Bell, starting right tackle Oliver Ross, above-average #2 wideout and former first-round pick Plaxico Burress, and defensive tackle Kendrick Clancy.

For all those losses, all of whom are starters for other teams, the NFL generously awarded the Steelers with two compensatory draft picks, a fourth rounder (133rd overall) and fifth rounder (167th overall). I'm sure that this gives them an unfair advantage since they lost a guy who gained over 1200 yards and scored 7 TDs the following season and replaced him with a former 49er.

On the other hand, the New York Jets were the only team with a 3rd round compensatory pick. The Tennessee Titans had three compensatory picks. Damn the NFL for keeping the "haves" in power by awarding them those valuable second-day picks.

If you looked at the actual facts, Mitch, you may find that they differ quite a bit from what your "gut" is telling you. Maybe it's just me, but I don't really mind if the NFL rewards teams for developing stars and losing them to free agency with some guy who might make the roster and contribute on a handful of special teams plays during their entire career.

 

[slanidrac16]

What gets lost here(excellent post by the way) is that the draft is only one of the tools that teams have to improve. Teams that do not utilize all the tools are doomed to fail and therefore drafting consistantly in the top 10. We need look no further than our own beloved Cardinals.
Teams need to control their cap, make smart and efficient use of free agency, retaining core players currently on their roster and finally the draft.
The CArds always have contolled their cap, to a fault.
We never made free agent acquisitions like we have in the last 3 years.
We have finally started resigning key players to longer contracts.
All have directly resulted in us getting better thus drafting lower i.e. 3rd, then 8th then 10th.
If I were a team drafting in the top 5, that tells me I'm a team with a lot of needs. I would look to draft down. One player is not going to turn my program around. Obviously, I have many needs. However, with the hype of the draft and the percieved point values of draft picks, teams are reluctant to trade down without getting equal value. Equal value to who?
My point is that teams are drafting in the top 10 year after year are failing in all areas of football operations. If you are drafting that high, you had better hit a home run or trade down, add picks and improve the core of your team.
One other thing. Teams that go into the draft looking to plug glaring needs for the upcoming season are doomed. Very few picks contribute in a major way in their 1st year. The Cards seem to be getting the hang of it.