The Market 2022

dscher

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19 VIX in this environment? Get your popcorn ready and stops to the upside and downside tight....
 

elindholm

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So today's crazy popping stock was Invitae (NVTA), some small genetic diagnostic company that's been publicly traded since early 2015. It almost quadrupled today, but what's weird in this case is that it didn't reach new highs -- in fact it's still well short of where it was a year ago. I haven't looked into whether it just had a good earnings report.

But when that other one did its craziness last week, HKD or whatever it was, I read one analysis speculating that it was a case of mistaken identity -- people were confusing it with the Hong Kong dollar, or maybe some other company. So with all of the activity with Nvidia (NVDA) today, could it be that NVTA got swept up in similar confusion?
 
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19 VIX in this environment? Get your popcorn ready and stops to the upside and downside tight....

Your warning in chart form.
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However, the trend only started this year. The VIX was well below 20 at times last year.
You must be registered for see images attach
 
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So today's crazy popping stock was Invitae (NVTA), some small genetic diagnostic company that's been publicly traded since early 2015. It almost quadrupled today, but what's weird in this case is that it didn't reach new highs -- in fact it's still well short of where it was a year ago. I haven't looked into whether it just had a good earnings report.

But when that other one did its craziness last week, HKD or whatever it was, I read one analysis speculating that it was a case of mistaken identity -- people were confusing it with the Hong Kong dollar, or maybe some other company. So with all of the activity with Nvidia (NVDA) today, could it be that NVTA got swept up in similar confusion?

LOL. We saw that with ZM and ZOOM during the pandemic.
 

Devilmaycare

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19 VIX in this environment? Get your popcorn ready and stops to the upside and downside tight....
Time to short!

What do you guys think of this from Chamath?
It is systematically true that when the VIX is in the teens, you sell or short stocks. And when the VIX is in the 30s, you buy equity because you think it's the bottom. If you’ve been doing that for the past year you would have made a ton of money. — Chamath Palihapitiya
 

dscher

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Your warning in chart form.
You must be registered for see images attach


However, the trend only started this year. The VIX was well below 20 at times last year.
You must be registered for see images attach
Rudimentary chart my friend. Very rudimentary. :)

The VIX has long term moving averages over decades (monthly charts) that are still in very healthy positions to the upside. Now, this doesn't mean that we can't go lower on the short term. It's just that's those longer term charts take precedence over the short term and that whatever short term trend we have in the VIX we are fighting a longer term uptrend overall. Kinda like a buy the dip version of the VIX.
 
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dscher

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Time to short!

What do you guys think of this from Chamath?
Agreed. In this environment especially.. it's not a bad idea. We are extremely stretched to the upside on a short term basis. At the very least, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have some hedging or take profit off the table. As much as many want to believe the bear market is over.. it just doesn't pan out. Bear market rallies are fierce like this for a reason. They suck back in as many longs as they can before the next leg lower. Of course, it all depends on whether you believe it's over or not.
 
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At least you didn't buy it short to spite me.

I hope my original price target helped someone and the revision didn't deter anyone. We all knew it was approaching an attractive valuation.
Calling the bottom is tough. I wish I had the same conviction with DIS that I had with GOOG. I need to remember Warren Buffett's advice about buying a great company at a fair price. You rarely get the great companies at a steal.
 

Devilmaycare

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I hope my original price target helped someone and the revision didn't deter anyone. We all knew it was approaching an attractive valuation.
Calling the bottom is tough. I wish I had the same conviction with DIS that I had with GOOG. I need to remember Warren Buffett's advice about buying a great company at a fair price. You rarely get the great companies at a steal.
If you want a great company then it isn't DIS. ;) Their stock might be ok but it's a company I hate.

I'm still thinking this is a dead cat too and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I've been thinking again of selling most of my holdings and then buying back in bit when things start flipping again.
 

elindholm

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I'm still thinking this is a dead cat too and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I've been thinking again of selling most of my holdings and then buying back in bit when things start flipping again.

There's definitely a case to be made for that. It interests me how the tax laws are written to discourage exactly this sort of thing. Someone thought carefully about how best to incentivize the kind of long-term investing that is most helpful to publicly traded companies.

I agree that DIS has a darker side to it. It's not quite bad enough for me to avoid it on ESG grounds, but I did have to do a bit of soul-searching before making the play.
 
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Devilmaycare

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There's definitely a case to be made to that. It interests me how the tax laws are written to discourage exactly this sort of thing. Someone thought carefully about how best to incentivize the kind of long-term investing that is most helpful to publicly traded companies.

I agree that DIS has a darker side to it. It's not quite bad enough for me to avoid it on ESG grounds, but I did have to do a bit of soul-searching before making the play.

Ignoring taxes is one of those things is one of those things that I've been really trying to do for awhile now. It still gets to me at times. As I've gotten more experience though I've seen that it's usually not good to worry about long vs short. I shot myself in the foot a couple times holding too long due to it and I would have have out ahead by paying the higher rate.
 
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If you want a great company then it isn't DIS. ;) Their stock might be ok but it's a company I hate.

I'm still thinking this is a dead cat too and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I've been thinking again of selling most of my holdings and then buying back in bit when things start flipping again.

It might be a good time to drop some holdings in which you've lost conviction.
 

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I hope my original price target helped someone and the revision didn't deter anyone. We all knew it was approaching an attractive valuation.
Calling the bottom is tough. I wish I had the same conviction with DIS that I had with GOOG. I need to remember Warren Buffett's advice about buying a great company at a fair price. You rarely get the great companies at a steal.
Your analysis definitely played a part in my purchase.
 
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