The Market 2021

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Thanks, it does help.

I've thought about using a stock broker but I don't want to get ripped off. I guess I'm looking for a stable fund to put some money that is diversified.
I think if this is the direction you're wanting to move towards...I would personally have no problem looking into target date funds from a reputable service. (vanguard,pimco, fidelity, etc) They will give you stock/bond diversification and not expose you too much stock volatility(that I think will be massive at some point imo) They can net you anywhere in the range of 3-8 percent over time and provide the ability to keep up with rising inflation and then some. Im personally not the best person to look towards if your looking for stock market positivity and viability over the long term though. So I have my money in bonds right now in our retirement accounts.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
IMO, a stock broker isnt that helpful vs learning it and understanding it on your own. Based on this post, I would recommend ETFs. ETFs are index funds, just like retirement.

There are targeted ETFs also, though, like Cathie Wood's ARK suite.

I like ETFs when I want to cover a mini-sector but don't want to have to choose one stock over another. So for example one I hold is KBWP, which is insurance: AllState, AIG, Progressive, Travelers, etc. I think the industry is a good place to invest and want broad coverage. You get some downside protection against a single company tanking, but on the other hand the whole fund isn't going to spike 50% in a month either. KBWP is up 17% YTD, which isn't spectacular but which is solid enough.
 

Devilmaycare

Chief Brah Officer
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Posts
6,093
Reaction score
8,556
Location
Scottsdale
Thanks, it does help.

I've thought about using a stock broker but I don't want to get ripped off. I guess I'm looking for a stable fund to put some money that is diversified.

If that's what you're looking for I'd take a look at the Vanguard Funds and ETFs. They perform well and have low fees. Look through them for one you like the diversification on. Maybe look to buy a few of them that hit different market segments too. It'll protect a little if one segment gets hammered like growth stocks did a couple months back.

If you want to gamble a little bit more pick out a couple stocks to play with too. This can be in addition to the funds. My current gamble play is IPOF. It's trading at only about 10.20 right now ($2 for warrants) which is just above NAV. So the downside is pretty low but it could easily take off when a DA is announced. I'm hoping that's in the next couple of weeks since IPOE just completed and got its ticker change. Latest rumor has had its merger tied to Impossible Foods. It's all rumor though until we get an actual announcement.
 

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
112,538
Reaction score
51,772
If that's what you're looking for I'd take a look at the Vanguard Funds and ETFs. They perform well and have low fees. Look through them for one you like the diversification on. Maybe look to buy a few of them that hit different market segments too. It'll protect a little if one segment gets hammered like growth stocks did a couple months back.

If you want to gamble a little bit more pick out a couple stocks to play with too. This can be in addition to the funds. My current gamble play is IPOF. It's trading at only about 10.20 right now ($2 for warrants) which is just above NAV. So the downside is pretty low but it could easily take off when a DA is announced. I'm hoping that's in the next couple of weeks since IPOE just completed and got its ticker change. Latest rumor has had its merger tied to Impossible Foods. It's all rumor though until we get an actual announcement.

I'm getting some good information to chew on. That's for your input.

I will probably be looking at Vanguard Funds and ETFs.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,840
Reaction score
6,065
I'm getting some good information to chew on. That's for your input.

I will probably be looking at Vanguard Funds and ETFs.

Before you look at any funds it's important to understand your goals for the specific money you are investing. Consider your time horizon (when you think you may need the money) and your tolerance for risk.

Short term or emergency funds needed in the next couple years or less should have limited to no exposure to market risk.

Longer term goals can allow for greater risk taking but you have to be able to weather the storm of bad markets when they come or you'll sell while the market is down and be in worse shape than the guy who parked his money in cash.

Whether you are a moderate risk taker and average 6-8% or a more aggressive investor that averages 8-10% is not as important as what you do in 2008 or 2020. Those who sell when the market is down 20, 30, or 40% will never realize their potential long term averages.
 
Last edited:

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
112,538
Reaction score
51,772
Before you look at any funds it's important to understand your goals for the specific money you are investing. Consider your time horizon (when you think you may need the money) and your tolerance for risk.

Short term or emergency funds needed in the next couple years or less should have limited to no exposure to market risk.

Longer term goals can allow for greater risk taking but you have to be able to weather the storm of bad markets when they come or you'll sell while the market is down and be in worse shape than the guy who parked his money in cash.

Whether you are a moderate risk taker and average 6-8% or a more aggressive investor that averages 8-10% is not as important what you do in 2008 or 2020. Those who sell when the market is down 20, 30, or 40% will never realize their potential long term averages.

I'm probably a moderate risk taker but I also realize CDs and money markets are losing money to inflation.
 

Devilmaycare

Chief Brah Officer
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Posts
6,093
Reaction score
8,556
Location
Scottsdale
i think Elon is bullet proof. His fanboys ain’t going nowhere I just thought it was interesting

Oh, I get it. I forwarded it to a huge fanboy that I work with to tease him. My reply was in the same sardonic tone that I was giving him over it. A video like that is more of them peacocking than anything. If they were serious they'd just hit him and then show the world.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Oh, I get it. I forwarded it to a huge fanboy that I work with to tease him. My reply was in the same sardonic tone that I was giving him over it. A video like that is more of them peacocking than anything. If they were serious they'd just hit him and then show the world.
He better stop taking to Twitter about Bitcoin so he doesn't upset his tsla stock fanboys in the process..

https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-stock-bitcoin-price-correlation-revealed-whats-common-link-3047817
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
Per Morgan Stanley.

That's a chart I can get behind. When you're talking about an entire index instead of an individual stock, the psychology of how traders are interpreting market moves becomes more of a factor.

I'd like to see the last year or so of the S&P 500 on a log scale. Several sites claim to offer that, but I haven't found one that actually does it -- either the site doesn't work at all, or their "log scale" isn't a log scale, or the graph is cluttered with a whole bunch of other nonsense trend lines, making it impossible to read. It might be that chartists don't know what "log scale" actually means.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
That's a chart I can get behind. When you're talking about an entire index instead of an individual stock, the psychology of how traders are interpreting market moves becomes more of a factor.

I'd like to see the last year or so of the S&P 500 on a log scale. Several sites claim to offer that, but I haven't found one that actually does it -- either the site doesn't work at all, or their "log scale" isn't a log scale, or the graph is cluttered with a whole bunch of other nonsense trend lines, making it impossible to read. It might be that chartists don't know what "log scale" actually means.
Stockcharts.com has a free basic charting platform that comes standard as log scale. You can narrow in on different time frames(daily,weekly, monthly) as well fairly easily.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
Stockcharts.com has a free basic charting platform that comes standard as log scale. You can narrow in on different time frames(daily,weekly, monthly) as well fairly easily.

Good to know that it's out there, but I'm not willing to register for an account.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Right, not a log scale -- the y-axis is equally spaced arithmetically (380, 385, 390, etc.) rather than geometrically.
I don't know man. It should be checked off right below the chart as 'log' not arithmetic. Stockcharts is a pretty reliable source for good quality charting.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
I don't know man. It should be checked off right below the chart as 'log' not arithmetic. Stockcharts is a pretty reliable source for good quality charting.

Yes, I see the check box, but it's not a log chart. Can you screen shot a log chart? Maybe the check box works only for subscribers.

Edit: Here's one for the DJIA, although it's nowhere near as current as I'd like. But you can see the correct scaling along the y-axis.


You must be registered for see images attach
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Yes, I see the check box, but it's not a log chart. Can you screen shot a log chart? Maybe the check box works only for subscribers.

Edit: Here's one for the DJIA, although it's nowhere near as current as I'd like. But you can see the correct scaling along the y-axis.


You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach


This is a daily/log chart. I dated it back a full year from today on my charts for ya since you were interested.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
Yes, I see the check box, but it's not a log chart. Can you screen shot a log chart? Maybe the check box works only for subscribers.

Edit: Here's one for the DJIA, although it's nowhere near as current as I'd like. But you can see the correct scaling along the y-axis.


You must be registered for see images attach
I know that screenshot didn't turn out well. But they look the same as the free version to me. I found this... Most short term traders will use arithmetic while log are better at smoothing out longer term price action.

https://stockcharts.com/articles/ma...tween-a-logarithmic-and-arithmetic-chart.html

So maybe honing in on the daily charts will yield similar results while the weekly and monthly will differ. Hope this helps.
 

BigRedRage

Reckless
Supporting Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2005
Posts
48,274
Reaction score
12,520
Location
SE valley
I charted a few logs this afternoon

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Staff online

Forum statistics

Threads
534,875
Posts
5,247,027
Members
6,274
Latest member
G-PA
Top