The Buccaneers are the home team that is mostly likely to lose in Week 14

Red Samurai

Oct 23, 2021
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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home against the Buffalo Bills this coming Sunday.

I mentioned before that the Buccaneers are bound to lose a home game because they have never finished a regular season with a perfect home record. I see that much less likely to happen the season right after they won the Super Bowl, and they went 5-3 at home last season. That’s a pretty bad home record for a team that wins the SuperBowl. They are 5-0 at home right now.

The Bills are coming off a loss last night on Monday Night football against the Patriots. The Bills seem to be even more dangerous coming off a loss. Every time the Bills lost a game this year, they would bounce back the next game and win in double digits. If the Bills had won last night against the Patriots, I would probably give them about 75% of beating Tampa Bay, but since they are coming off a loss, I give them a 85-90% chance of winning.

Who do I think is really better between the Bucs and Bills?? I would say the Bucs are somewhat better overall, and if they were facing each other in a playoff game and were in the same conference, I would give Tom Brady’s team the edge. But who is a better playoff team or who is the better team overall is irrelevant here in this scenario.

The Bills are 7-5, but they are too good for that kind of record. They are fighting for a playoff spot, whereas the Bucs already have a higher playoff spot. The Bills are hungrier for the playoff spot more than the Bucs will want the higher seed.

Those are reasons why I see the Bucs as the home team that is most likely to lose in week 14, even if they are favored to win the game. Yes, I am 85-90% certain that the Bucs are losing this game.
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