The Ayton Plan

[1Sun]

Most of the top teams tie up their salary in the top three players on the team. If a team gets that mix wrong they are are luxury tax hell.

The key is to be able to keep the team together and when they pass their peak/window, have valuable assets they can trade or have expiring contracts to clear space.

It looks to me the Suns are looking to make a 2-3 year run before they have to change their core players.

I've been saying that for a while, and after these next 2 seasons, get ready for another decade like the 2010s. That model is just not sustainable for several reasons. This isn't baseball, where a team can easily just tear it all down and be a championship contender in a few years. As we just saw, it isn't easy to build a winner in the NBA, especially in a place and with an owner where free agents tend to run in the opposite direction...

 

[1Sun]

I think the Suns decided to go for it now. That's probably one of the reasons they sold their G-League franchise because they are going with veteran players. The Suns are not planning to pay the luxury tax when their window of opportunity closes.

But if that's the case, why are they leaving a roster spot open and a hole at the power forward position?

In my opinion, this is just the same old Sarver model. Do just enough financially to keep fans interested and sell tickets and merchandise, but never anything more than that. It is a model built solely on the business side of an enterprise that demands due attention to another side, in this case the basketball and team competitiveness side.

 

[1Sun]

The Suns may keep Ayton next season in restricted free agency but at some point, some good players are going to have to be sacrificed to keep the core players together.

No one is saying Ayton is not a core player. The Suns may be just posponing the decision to make sure they are keeping the best 3-4 players together. It's a huge jump from Bridges $90 million contract to Ayton's possible $172 million contract with incentives to go to $207 million.

Of course the Suns have already paid Chris Paul as well.

Or maybe Sarver just isn't willing to pay. Booker is the only Sun projected to be among the top 20 paid players in the league, and he is tied for 20th.

 

[Mainstreet]

A team can be competitive and a contender for years if they select the right 2-3 core players.

If they get it wrong, that's when they have to make moves that can cripple the franchise.

Hopefully this is what the Suns are considering with Ayton.

 

[Covert Rain]

So, the possibility of Ayton costing the franchise roughly 70 million a year doesn't concern you? And again, that's just a possibility and it wouldn't happen unless DA qualified for the Super Max this season. Still, it seems risky.

That said, if it was "cave into whatever his demands are" or lose out on a chance to win it all, I'd probably do it. But we still have his rights for the next two years so unless he decides to teach the organization a lesson we should still have our contending window as long as CP doesn't decline. And I can't see him pulling a Markieff and bailing on his teammates given that it could easily impact his next contract.

No. I would say is should be a consideration but not concern. As I stated this situation isn't specific to the Suns. The competitive teams and most successful franchises work through this with their talent all the time. If the fans, this ownership and front office want to return to the elite in this league they need to get this done. Nobody is saying "cave". Negotiations are two way. HOW you negotiate and doing so in good faith is critical to this team changing it's reputation.

Even though these current moves are about the window with Chris Paul, the long term outlook of reloading your franchise is also critical. We have had two high impact big men in 19 years. Amare and now Ayton. They don't grow on trees and if you can lock him up you do it.

 

[1Sun]

Yeah, I think the Suns are looking ahead financially to the departure of Chris Paul and then reboot in the sense of finding another point guard.

There is luxury tax hell and there is the next level where a team has to break up their core players.

Booker, Bridges and Cam Johnson isn't much of a core. That's a fringe playoff team at best.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I actually think you are correct.

If you listened very carefully to Sarvers last interview, he said they will have to pay luxury tax next year - not for the next few years.

I think that means he is only planning on keeping this team together for 2 years unless they win a title and it becomes financially more viable. Maybe the cap is going up enough after 2 years that is what he meant - I don't know but I definetley got the impression he REALLY does not like paying the luxury tax.

Then his ass doesn’t belong in the league as an owner.

Or he should accept every bit of criticism that he cares more about the bottom line then he does winning.

Every title team in recent memory is major tax offenders. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

 

[1Sun]

A team can be competitive and a contender for years if they select the right 2-3 core players.

If they get it wrong, that's when they have to make moves that can cripple the franchise.

Hopefully this is what the Suns are considering with Ayton.

If not Ayton, who else are they going to pay? It's not like we have any other potential stars, any draft picks who can realistically be pegged as future stars, or free agents waiting in line to come here.

 

[1Sun]

Then his ass doesn’t belong in the league as an owner.

Or he should accept every bit of criticism that he cares more about the bottom line then he does winning.

Every title team in recent memory is major tax offenders. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

This.

 

[Cheesebeef]

CP3/Bridges/Cam Payne have already taken team friendly and below market deals. Hopefully Ayton does the same, but you can't bank of everyone "taking one for the team".

Like it or not, Ayton's growth represents our best chance at winning a ring. Keeping him around is completely doable if Robert Sarver wants to do it.

His growth also represents our best chance at SUSTAINED success not just for the next two years, but for the next decade.

 

[Covert Rain]

Then his ass doesn’t belong in the league as an owner.

Or he should accept every bit of criticism that he cares more about the bottom line then he does winning.

Every title team in recent memory is major tax offenders. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Sarver is very much an owner that has a low tolerance for salary unless he sees immediate results. That's the business man in him. Especially, since unlike other owners who have their teams as a hobby verses Sarver who views this as a primary viable business for himself. I think for Sarver the bottom line is just as important as winning which is why his track record here is checkered to say the least. That last part? I couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

A team can be competitive and a contender for years if they select the right 2-3 core players.

If they get it wrong, that's when they have to make moves that can cripple the franchise.

Hopefully this is what the Suns are considering with Ayton.

Yes, the core right now is CP/Book making big money, transitioning to CP making less, and Ayton/Bridges making more.

Yes, a team needs to choose the right 2-3 core players, but that decision isn't up to the Suns alone! It requires players actually wanting to come here, and letting Ayton go is not a move that will improve our odds at getting top talent in the future.

In a perfect world, Ayton would be be more of a killer like Booker or CP3, but we also saw that he could be incredibly effective even without the dog mentality. The good news is that he's only scratching the surface of his talent.

I just don't see any obvious realistic alternative to taking a chance on an overpay with Ayton in terms of getting a championship level squad together.

 

[Proximo]

Ayton is not going to be re signed today and I am not worried about it in the least.

He is not going anywhere, nobody can pay him more than the Suns, and the price can't go up. He is as pissed as he is going to get, so I don't worry about that.

If anything I expect the lack of contract to motivate him.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yes, the core right now is CP/Book making big money, transitioning to CP making less, and Ayton/Bridges making more.

Yes, a team needs to choose the right 2-3 core players, but that decision isn't up to the Suns alone! It requires players actually wanting to come here, and letting Ayton go is not a move that will improve our odds at getting top talent in the future.

In a perfect world, Ayton would be be more of a killer like Booker or CP3, but we also saw that he could be incredibly effective even without the dog mentality. The good news is that he's only scratching the surface of his talent.

I just don't see any obvious realistic alternative to taking a chance on an overpay with Ayton in terms of getting a championship level squad together.

I'm hoping a deal gets done with Ayton. I wanted both Bridges and Ayton extended. My posts will reflect that.

Let me ask a couple of questions though. Based on the stats below, is anyone absolutely sure Ayton is a $172 or a $207 million player?

Also is it fair to see how he plays one more season before he hits RFA?

Deandre Ayton Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Deandre Ayton. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference.com

www.basketball-reference.com

 

[Hoop Head]

Ayton's worth $172m but that $207m is too much and I worry that if he gets that then he'll have no incentive to keep up the play that earned it. I don't believe that's a question Atlanta needed to ask about Trae Young or Dallas with Luka. They proved they're worth $207m well before sitting down and asking for that, while playing positions it's harder to get that recognition because of all of the top players in the league already at that level.

 

[1Sun]

Ayton's worth $172m but that $207m is too much and I worry that if he gets that then he'll have no incentive to keep up the play that earned it. I don't believe that's a question Atlanta needed to ask about Trae Young or Dallas with Luka. They proved they're worth $207m well before sitting down and asking for that, while playing positions it's harder to get that recognition because of all of the top players in the league already at that level.

The only way Ayton could possibly get up to $207M is if he earns it. It's not like he's eligible for it under the rules unless and until he does. Thus, it is pointless to quibble over incentive bonuses that haven't kicked in and that will have been well worth it if they do kick in.

Nothing good can come from this impasse. Nothing. But all sorts of bad could come from it, not the least of which is the fact that Sarver has just reinforced for the rest of the League his reluctance to pay players what they are worth and his emphasis of the bottom line over winning. I can't see that being a positive development in terms of trying to attract good free agents.

 

[Covert Rain]

I'm hoping a deal gets done with Ayton. I wanted both Bridges and Ayton extended. My posts will reflect that.

Let me ask a couple of questions though. Based on the stats below, is anyone absolutely sure Ayton is a $172 or a $207 million player based on the stats below?

Also is it fair to see how he plays one more season before he hits RFA?

Deandre Ayton Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Deandre Ayton. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference.com

www.basketball-reference.com

I think these are all the wrong questions.

I think most people think he raised his game to a new level come playoffs. However, even during the season (I kept posting comparative stats) and IMO there were signs in retrospect all season long what would happen in the playoffs. The question for me isn't about his overall stats. My question would be do you believe since the playoffs he is at another level going forward?

In terms of being sure? Nobody can be sure so I am not sure that is the right question either. My questions would be if the Suns feel Ayton is one of the best at his position? Do you think he will get even better? Do you think he was essential to the teams run? If you lose him do you think you can replace him and how much would that cost in FA or via trade?

That sets the market for me when it comes to Ayton.

In terms of waiting one more season? That's not unreasonable at all but there is a risk of pissing off that player and him making up his mind that when this contract is up he is gone. Not every player, no matter how motivated by the dollar, is always willing to overlook their anger at their team. We have seen a ton of players get pissed off at their franchise and move on over the years. So, the question should be .....is signing him now a higher risk than waiting?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The only way Ayton could possibly get up to $207M is if he earns it. It's not like he's eligible for it under the rules unless and until he does. Thus, it is pointless to quibble over incentive bonuses that haven't kicked in and that will have been well worth it if they do kick in.

This is an incredibly important point that continues to be misconstrued. Ayton will only be making crazy money if he's earning it - that's how it's supposed to work!

 

[Covert Rain]

This is an incredibly important point that continues to be misconstrued. Ayton will only be making crazy money if he's earning it - that's how it's supposed to work!

I wish all sports contracts were 90% incentive and 10% base in every sport.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think these are all the wrong questions.

I think most people think he raised his game to a new level come playoffs. However, even during the season (I kept posting comparative stats) and IMO there were signs in retrospect all season long what would happen in the playoffs. The question for me isn't about his overall stats. My question would be do you believe since the playoffs he is at another level going forward?

In terms of being sure? Nobody can be sure so I am not sure that is the right question either. My questions would be if the Suns feel Ayton is one of the best at his position? Do you think he will get even better? Do you think he was essential to the teams run? If you lose him do you think you can replace him and how much would that cost in FA or via trade?

That sets the market for me when it comes to Ayton.

In terms of waiting one more season? That's not unreasonable at all but there is a risk of pissing off that player and him making up his mind that when this contract is up he is gone. Not every player is motivated by squeezing every last dollar out of contract. We have seen a ton of players get pissed off at their franchise and move on over the years. So, the question should be .....is signing him now a higher risk than waiting?

Maybe the Suns have asked some of the same questions (in bold) and came to a different answer.

 

[Covert Rain]

Maybe the Suns have asked some of the same questions (in bold) and came to a different answer.

That's possible but the Suns better understand how the rest of the league views those answers as well. If not, it could haunt us for the rest of his career.

 

[Mainstreet]

No deal on Ayton. Talks have ended.

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[1Sun]

Maybe the Suns have asked some of the same questions (in bold) and came to a different answer.

If they did, they should have traded him earlier in the offseason before the impasse became public and they lost all of their leverage.

 

[1Sun]

No deal on Ayton. Talks have ended.

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NOW does everyone on this board realize that the problem was Sarver's unwillingness to offer the Max?

 

[AZ Native]

Well, there you go.