The Answer to Hightower's fumbling problems: Marcus Allen's traction sleeves

[kerouac9]

I agree with most of what you say, but Marcel Shipp? Come on now.

Marcel Shipp was a good #2 back. He's a rich man's Marcel Shipp, a poor man's Chester Taylor. Hightower's hands are wildly overrated on this board. He may drop more passes than he catches, especially on third downs.

I hope yesterday also puts to rest any discussion of giving LSH a larger role with the offense. Guy got dinged after four or five consecutive carries. Get him the ball 10 times per game total, and he's electric. More than that and you're putting him at risk.

Just for fun, here are the backs that I'd rather have than Tim Hightower without question: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Peyton Hillis, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, LDT, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Felix Jones. That's seventeen.

THT would be a good complementary back in a passing offense. Maybe I'd compare him to a good closer like Green Bay's Ryan Grant. He's not quite as good as Ryan Grant because of the fumbles, but both of those guys are players who come in with a lead and get first downs and can score in the red zone. He's kind of like a less-good Matt Forte.

One of the reasons that we're seeing Beanie underperform is because we're not running an offense that can be successful for a runner like Beanie. Beanie needs carries--like Thomas Jones did--and he's not able to get into a rhythm. It's bad watching Beanie get pulled from the field for a different package after ripping off a six-yard run on first-and-ten. If we're going to keep the current offense--and it certainly seems that we will--then Hightower should remain the starter. If we want to run an offense that protects the football, shortens the game, allows us to play field position, and scores some TDs, we should play with more 2TE sets and run the damned ball more often with Beanie Wells.

 

[Mulli]

Marcel Shipp was a good #2 back. He's a rich man's Marcel Shipp, a poor man's Chester Taylor. Hightower's hands are wildly overrated on this board. He may drop more passes than he catches, especially on third downs.

I hope yesterday also puts to rest any discussion of giving LSH a larger role with the offense. Guy got dinged after four or five consecutive carries. Get him the ball 10 times per game total, and he's electric. More than that and you're putting him at risk.

Just for fun, here are the backs that I'd rather have than Tim Hightower without question: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Peyton Hillis, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, LDT, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Felix Jones. That's seventeen.

THT would be a good complementary back in a passing offense. Maybe I'd compare him to a good closer like Green Bay's Ryan Grant. He's not quite as good as Ryan Grant because of the fumbles, but both of those guys are players who come in with a lead and get first downs and can score in the red zone. He's kind of like a less-good Matt Forte.

One of the reasons that we're seeing Beanie underperform is because we're not running an offense that can be successful for a runner like Beanie. Beanie needs carries--like Thomas Jones did--and he's not able to get into a rhythm. It's bad watching Beanie get pulled from the field for a different package after ripping off a six-yard run on first-and-ten. If we're going to keep the current offense--and it certainly seems that we will--then Hightower should remain the starter. If we want to run an offense that protects the football, shortens the game, allows us to play field position, and scores some TDs, we should play with more 2TE sets and run the damned ball more often with Beanie Wells.

I agree with you, except for the Shipp part. He didn't have any skills. For example, he doesn't score on the screen play vs. the Eagles in the NFC championship game.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree with you, except for the Shipp part. He didn't have any skills. For example, he doesn't score on the screen play vs. the Eagles in the NFC championship game.

Shipp never scored, period.

People are saying the same things about Hightower as they did about Marcel. They're clearly different runners, but I think that they're potentials are about the same. Marcel got worn down because he couldn't handle the starter's load that bad coaches were willing to give him. I'll never forgive him for that terrible first start at Kansas City, who was the worst rushing defense in the NFL at the time.

For skill-set, I think that Jason Wright is way more comparable to Marcel Shipp. I don't really want either getting 20-25 carries a game for the team that I cheer for.

 

[Mulli]

Shipp never scored, period.

People are saying the same things about Hightower as they did about Marcel. They're clearly different runners, but I think that they're potentials are about the same. Marcel got worn down because he couldn't handle the starter's load that bad coaches were willing to give him. I'll never forgive him for that terrible first start at Kansas City, who was the worst rushing defense in the NFL at the time.

For skill-set, I think that Jason Wright is way more comparable to Marcel Shipp. I don't really want either getting 20-25 carries a game for the team that I cheer for.

Yep. Both are/were just guys. If the Cards can ever get a back to complement THT, they will be in good shape. I hope it is Beanie, but we shall see.

Maybe the Cards will have a shot at drafting Mark Ingram.

 

[kerouac9]

Yep. Both are/were just guys. If the Cards can ever get a back to complement THT, they will be in good shape. I hope it is Beanie, but we shall see.

Maybe the Cards will have a shot at drafting Mark Ingram.

There'd be no point to it. If the Cards are going to run this mickey-mouse offense, then it doesn't really matter. Sign Michael Bush as a power back and give him 12 carries a game a la T.D. Duckett in Atlanta. Or sign Jerious Norwood to be a Tim Hightower you can trust on 3rd down.

 

[Duckjake]

OL

That and not having much of a passing threat.

Amazing what happened to the run game once the Broncos realized they actually had to start worrying about Skelton throwing the football.

The Cards went from 1,0,2,-1,5,2,6,2,-4, to 5,9,11 and finally to 41 and 35.

 

[Duckjake]

Why? Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson have their share of those runs. As did Barry Sanders.

I would say THT is quality.

You are comparing TH to Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson and Barry Sanders? You are nuts.

 

[Mulli]

You are comparing TH to Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson and Barry Sanders? You are nuts.

No, I am not. I asked why the problem with the negative yards. Just saying he is quality.

 

[Mulli]

Why? Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson have their share of those runs. As did Barry Sanders.

I would say THT is quality.

There it is.

 

[kerouac9]

No, I am not. I asked why the problem with the negative yards. Just saying he is quality.

Because it's feast or famine with THT in a way it isn't with the other guys. Take away AD or CJ's two best runs on the season and they're still above-average RBs. Do the same with THT and he's averaging less than 4 YPC. I don't know if there's another RB in the NFL who's like that.

MoJo Drew didn't have a run over 30 yards before yesterday, but for me he's the MVP of the league right now. All he does is get positive yardage, and AD doesn't get negative yardage as frequently as you're asserting, either.

 

[Duckjake]

Shipp never scored, period.

People are saying the same things about Hightower as they did about Marcel. They're clearly different runners, but I think that they're potentials are about the same. Marcel got worn down because he couldn't handle the starter's load that bad coaches were willing to give him. I'll never forgive him for that terrible first start at Kansas City, who was the worst rushing defense in the NFL at the time.

For skill-set, I think that Jason Wright is way more comparable to Marcel Shipp. I don't really want either getting 20-25 carries a game for the team that I cheer for.

Shipp scored 9 TDs in 2002 almost a third of the Cards total offensive TDs that season and had a 4.44 ypc average rushing. 1,280 yards from scrimmage.

Even more amazing Marcel had back to back games in 2003 of 35 carries for 165 yards and then 29 carries for 140 yards.

So he wasn't that bad.

 

[Mulli]

Shipp scored 9 TDs in 2002 almost a third of the Cards total offensive TDs that season and had a 4.44 ypc average rushing. 1,280 yards from scrimmage.

Even more amazing Marcel had back to back games in 2003 of 35 carries for 165 yards and then 29 carries for 140 yards.

So he wasn't that bad.

And then he only had 5 more TDs the rest of his career from 03 to 07. Four of them came in 2006.

 

[Mulli]

Because it's feast or famine with THT in a way it isn't with the other guys. Take away AD or CJ's two best runs on the season and they're still above-average RBs. Do the same with THT and he's averaging less than 4 YPC. I don't know if there's another RB in the NFL who's like that.

MoJo Drew didn't have a run over 30 yards before yesterday, but for me he's the MVP of the league right now. All he does is get positive yardage, and AD doesn't get negative yardage as frequently as you're asserting, either.

I am trying to find the stats for negative yardage carries, but googles are not cooperatiing.

 

[Duckjake]

Because it's feast or famine with THT in a way it isn't with the other guys. Take away AD or CJ's two best runs on the season and they're still above-average RBs. Do the same with THT and he's averaging less than 4 YPC. I don't know if there's another RB in the NFL who's like that.

MoJo Drew didn't have a run over 30 yards before yesterday, but for me he's the MVP of the league right now. All he does is get positive yardage, and AD doesn't get negative yardage as frequently as you're asserting, either.

Exactly. If you break down TH's carries you don't find many 4 or 5 yard runs. He either gets a bunch or nothing.

45 games with the Cards and TH has gained 50 yards or more 12 times.

Wells has 10 in only 29 games. But in true Cardinal first round draft pick fashion he's finished.

Edge went over 50 yards 14 times in 2007 alone.

But, this really doesn't say anything about the Cards running backs as much as it is an indictment of the Cards running game overall. Last in rushing attempts 3 years in a row speaks for itself.

 

[kerouac9]

I am trying to find the stats for negative yardage carries, but googles are not cooperatiing.

Yeah... it's kind of a game-charter's stat. Usually only DJ has the time to put 'em together.

But check out FootballOutsiders' advanced metrics for RBs. One number that I like to look at is "Success percentage," which is whether or not an RB can gain 40% of the necessary yardage for a 1st down on 1st down, 60% of the yardage on second down, and 100% on third & fourth down.

Hightower's Success Percentage is 41%, good for 31st in the NFL. On a per-carry basis, Hightower is below-replacement level (-6.3% DVOA). That means that THT is failing to get the necessary yardage to keep us out of 2nd and 3rd and long 3 out of 5 times.

For comparison's sake, AD has a success rate of 47% (19th) and a 5th-ranked DVOA of 17.3%. That essentially means that while he does have a lot of short-yardage gains, his big runs are big enough and frequent enough to make giving him the ball a priority.

I was wrong about Chris Johnson. Every Coach's Dream is having a down years. Success rate of 39% (33rd ranked) and a DVOA of -4.8% (25th in the NFL).

BTW--How bad is THT as a receiver right now? His catch rate is 54%, which is by far the lowest among RBs with a minimum of 20 passes. The next-lowest is Oakland's Marcel Reece, whom I've never heard of.

 

[Shane]

For comparison's sake, AD has a success rate of 47% (19th) and a 5th-ranked DVOA of 17.3%. That essentially means that while he does have a lot of short-yardage gains, his big runs are big enough and frequent enough to make giving him the ball a priority.

Why would you even bother comparing THT to AD?

 

[Linderbee]

Why would you even bother comparing THT to AD?

Okay, I'm feeling stupid. Who is AD?

 

[Shane]

Okay, I'm feeling stupid. Who is AD?

ALL DAY = Adrian Peterson

 

[Linderbee]

ALL DAY = Adrian Peterson

Ah. I was figuring Peterson, but also figured it couldn't have been a repeated typo. Thanks!

lame nickname, imho

 

[Shane]

lame nickname, imho

Agree but not as lame as that stupid "magatron" they use in Detroit.

 

[Linderbee]

Agree but not as lame as that stupid "magatron" they use in Detroit.

"Magatron"?

 

[Mulli]

"Magatron"?

Megatron = Calvin Johnson.

 

[Linderbee]

Megatron = Calvin Johnson.

That doesn't even make sense. Stupid.

 

[Shane]

That doesn't even make sense. Stupid.

Thank you!

 

[Duckjake]

Why would you even bother comparing THT to AD?

To see if the negative yardage or percentage of carries under 2 yards is something you see from all backs, even the very best, or just ours.

In looking into some of those numbers what really starts to stand out is how little the Cards run the football and how it impacts our RBs.

For example TH starts out the Denver game 1,0, 2, -1. In too many instances he might never get another carry. But if AP starts out that way he's almost certain to get at least 15 more carries to try and offset the slow start.

Surprising stat from yesterdays game. TH was 6-97 with two TDs after his fumble. Seeing LSH must have greatly inspired him.