The 2019 Draft

[JCSunsfan]

If we start out the year slow, which is a good possibility, the value of the Suns 2019 draft pick might soar. Do we really want to be drafting high in 2019? We need veteran players in our window. We do not need more young one and doners.

I think we should trade that pick--maybe top 1 or 3 protected for the point guard of the future. Even at the top of the draft its a crap shoot. But drafting 3-8 is really so.

Just interested in what some of you think. Are there players in this draft that you really want or you think will really help us? The strength of this draft is wings, and we have those.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm not sure who is available that is worth the pick. My thought is to keep the pick and hopefully add a point guard in free agency.

 

[Proximo]

If we start out the year slow, which is a good possibility, the value of the Suns 2019 draft pick might soar. Do we really want to be drafting high in 2019? We need veteran players in our window. We do not need more young one and doners.

I think we should trade that pick--maybe top 1 or 3 protected for the point guard of the future. Even at the top of the draft its a crap shoot. But drafting 3-8 is really so.

Just interested in what some of you think. Are there players in this draft that you really want or you think will really help us? The strength of this draft is wings, and we have those.

I would not trade it till after the lottery.

Zion really could be the next Lebron if he improves his jump shot.

 

[Chaplin]

IF we indeed did inquire about Kemba and Lillard this summer, don't you think the Hornets and Blazers would have asked for this pick? If we weren't going to give it up then, what makes you think we'll give it up now??

 

[1Sun]

I don't know about anyone else here, but I am sick of talking about the next draft right as the regular season starts. At some point, the focus has to he winning, not preparing for the next draft lottery.

 

[Suns_fan69]

IF we indeed did inquire about Kemba and Lillard this summer, don't you think the Hornets and Blazers would have asked for this pick? If we weren't going to give it up then, what makes you think we'll give it up now??

Because McD isn't calling the shots? Feels clear to me that Sarver has been pushing for a more win-now attitude so I expect that the Suns' 2019 pick is on the table.

 

[JCSunsfan]

IF we indeed did inquire about Kemba and Lillard this summer, don't you think the Hornets and Blazers would have asked for this pick? If we weren't going to give it up then, what makes you think we'll give it up now??

I bet they wanted a lot more than just this pick. If this pick was enough to get Kemba or Lillard, it should have been done long ago.

But also, picks like this tend to rise and fall in value as it becomes more clear where it might actually land.

 

[hcsilla]

A lot of freshmen, so before the NCAA season starts it is hard to judge how strong this draftclass is.

Zion Williamson has a (bit of) Larry Johnson-like athleticism and body-type. If he could show at least some of Johnson's skills, he easily might be #1. Worst case scenario is a bit longer and more athletic version of Shabazz Muhammad.

Among players returning to college I like Daniel Gafford. Mobile, athletic, lanky C.

 

[GatorAZ]

Nassir Little (who should be playing at Arizona) is going too-3. I think he’s better than Barrett/Reddish.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I would only trade the pick at the deadline if we are clearly going to end up in the 11-14 range of the lottery drawing or if the return is legitimately worthy of giving up a top 10 pick (trading for a guy that could leave next summer would not be worth it). Otherwise I would like to keep the pick and see if we get lucky with the lottery as the new system makes it more likely for teams to jump into the top 3 now. We would also be able to field calls up to draft night for potential trades for the pick once we have a spot secured.

 

[slinslin]

There is no PG in the top 20 or so we might as well start looking at potential fits next to Ayton aka small ball PFs.

Zion Williamson could be one but the rest of the crop looks like either straight up centers or small forwards in my opinion.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I would only trade the pick at the deadline if we are clearly going to end up in the 11-14 range of the lottery drawing or if the return is legitimately worthy of giving up a top 10 pick (trading for a guy that could leave next summer would not be worth it). Otherwise I would like to keep the pick and see if we get lucky with the lottery as the new system makes it more likely for teams to jump into the top 3 now. We would also be able to field calls up to draft night for potential trades for the pick once we have a spot secured.

But then it won’t command as much. If the Suns go 1-6 out of the gate, teams will be falling over themselves to get that pick. So trade it then and get a good point guard. Then they start playing better with the new player and the Suns end up late lottery.

Make it top 3 protected or something if we have to. Probably Kemba would be the player a team is most willing to trade.

 

[Hoop Head]

But then it won’t command as much. If the Suns go 1-6 out of the gate, teams will be falling over themselves to get that pick. So trade it then and get a good point guard. Then they start playing better with the new player and the Suns end up late lottery.

Make it top 3 protected or something if we have to. Probably Kemba would be the player a team is most willing to trade.

Our pick won't be nearly as valuable if we're sending it to a team like Charlotte for Kemba, even with a slow start. That would need to happen at the deadline when it's virtually guaranteed to be a lotto pick. We could get hot with a real PG and win a bunch. Last year in January Utah was even with us at the bottom of the west. They went on a tear throughout the end of January and February though to fight their way into a playoff spot. They didn't make a big trade either either. They got things together. After that happened though it's unlikely a team will put a lot on us staying bad for the remainder of the season if we add an All-Star type PG.

 

[Yuma]

Our pick won't be nearly as valuable if we're sending it to a team like Charlotte for Kemba, even with a slow start. That would need to happen at the deadline when it's virtually guaranteed to be a lotto pick. We could get hot with a real PG and win a bunch. Last year in January Utah was even with us at the bottom of the west. They went on a tear throughout the end of January and February thought and fought their way into a playoff spot. They didn't make a big trade either either. They got things together. After that happened though it's unlikely a team will put a lot on us staying bad for the remainder of the season if we add an All-Star type PG.

I agree in general. However we are in the Western Conference. Say we start out with a bad record, especially like about game twenty into the season. It would be really hard to make up enough games out west to sneak into the playoffs. Teams could still reasonably expect a lottery pick from us.

 

[Hoop Head]

I agree in general. However we are in the Western Conference. Say we start out with a bad record, especially like about game twenty into the season. It would be really hard to make up enough games out west to sneak into the playoffs. Teams could still reasonably expect a lottery pick from us.

I agree, I don't think we'll be a playoff team with a big trade late in the season but it is possible, it happened last year. Trading a pick in January or February should get you more than it would in November though, before 10 games are even played. The idea of a 1-6 start causing everyone to fall over themselves to get our pick is a bit much. Yes, it will have value but it's way too easy to come back from that. It's an 82 game season, there would be 75 games left if we started like that.

 

[Phrazbit]

I agree, I don't think we'll be a playoff team with a big trade late in the season but it is possible, it happened last year. Trading a pick in January or February should get you more than it would in November though, before 10 games are even played. The idea of a 1-6 start causing everyone to fall over themselves to get our pick is a bit much. Yes, it will have value but it's way too easy to come back from that. It's an 82 game season, there would be 75 games left if we started like that.

I think it's probably more unlikely that some other team would be willing to give up on their own season by dumping their star point guard after two weeks, regardless of what our record is.

 

[Carolinacacti]

You start putting protection on that pick its not worth [x.// /. Then we have the new lottery thing. I think Charlotte is going to have a good year so just forget about Kemba.

 

[Hoop Head]

You start putting protection on that pick its not worth [x.// /. Then we have the new lottery thing. I think Charlotte is going to have a good year so just forget about Kemba.

Charlotte is hard to read. They have talent, in a way, but they've had talent before and that did nothing for them. Most of their guys are role players and they're not like the early 2000 Pistons in that they're great role players who mesh well together. They may take the mantle of the unluckiest team in the NBA from the Suns since we finally won the lottery. If they were around longer then they would have that cinched up already.

Look at their draft history (starts in 2004), they're a perpetual lottery team but typically fall between 8 & 11 because being the best non-playoff team in the East gets you a better pick than in the West. They've drafted some really good collegiate players who never panned out like Adam Morrison, Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller, MKG, and Emeka Okafor but the closest to a homegrown star they've been is Kemba, who they selected at #9. They've spent money on free agents but none have improved or taken the next step there. Most of the players they drafted actually got better after they left, although they were just role players like Dudley, Tobias Harris, and DJ Augustine. Any team looking to add a role player should see who Charlotte wants to draft because odds are that's who will be a good role player in a couple years.

Michael Jordan is a terrible owner also. He'll never get called the worst owner in the NBA by anyone who covers the sport or fans because he's MJ but if Sarver had made all of the same moves MJ has over the last decade or so then he would have been run out of town already. He is probably the most hands on owner as well. He's never been good at that side of the league, he's the guy who wanted Kwame Brown #1 overall in Washington and then came out of retirement and broke his spirit in practice. He's easily a bottom 5 owner.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Look at their draft history (starts in 2004), they're a perpetual lottery team but typically fall between 8 & 11 because being the best non-playoff team in the East gets you a better pick than in the West.

I'm a little confused here, this seems like the opposite of what I've been saying for years? The East is easier so it inflates your record resulting in a lowered pre-lottery draft position than you'd have if you were in the West. It's one of the main reasons that the West continues to be the more dominant conference each year; the more talented Western teams continue to get better chances to draft better players.

 

[Hoop Head]

I'm a little confused here, this seems like the opposite of what I've been saying for years? The East is easier so it inflates your record resulting in a lowered pre-lottery draft position than you'd have if you were in the West. It's one of the main reasons that the West continues to be the more dominant conference each year; the more talented Western teams continue to get better chances to draft better players.

I think I understand what you're saying, like the Suns have a harder time than the Hornets of getting 30 wins because they play teams in the West more often, right?

However in lottery seeding, the team that finished 9th in the East has a worse record than the 9th, 10th, and 11th teams in the West so they end up drafting at 11 instead of 14, like the team in the West that was closest to the playoffs.

I think both of us can be right, in a way, mine has more to do with how the lottery odds and seeding works vs the talent they play. Last year the Pistons finished 9th in the East, with a 39-43 record, and the 9th and 10th seeds in the West had better records so they drafted later than the Pistons. Strength of schedule doesn't matter for ping pong balls, those are handed out from worst to best non-playoff teams based on record and typically the 8th seed, sometimes even the 7th seed, in the East have losing records but still make the playoffs while the Suns have missed the playoffs when they've won 48 games. So the West teams that barely miss the postseason always end up with the worst lottery picks/odd and the teams that just miss the playoffs in the East usually get better odds than 2 or 3 teams from the West because their record is worse than the West teams.

Here's last years standings, you can see there that the #9 seed in the East had a worse record than #9 and #10 in the West, scroll back and you'll see where they end with a worse record than 3 or 4 Western teams, giving them a much better lotto pick, typically 10 or 11.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018.html

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think I understand what you're saying, like the Suns have a harder time than the Hornets of getting 30 wins because they play teams in the West more often, right?

However in lottery seeding, the team that finished 9th in the East has a worse record than the 9th, 10th, and 11th teams in the West so they end up drafting at 11 instead of 14, like the team in the West that was closest to the playoffs.

I think both of us can be right, in a way, mine has more to do with how the lottery odds and seeding works vs the talent they play. Last year the Pistons finished 9th in the East, with a 39-43 record, and the 9th and 10th seeds in the West had better records so they drafted later than the Pistons. Strength of schedule doesn't matter for ping pong balls, those are handed out from worst to best non-playoff teams based on record and typically the 8th seed, sometimes even the 7th seed, in the East have losing records but still make the playoffs while the Suns have missed the playoffs when they've won 48 games. So the West teams that barely miss the postseason always end up with the worst lottery picks/odd and the teams that just miss the playoffs in the East usually get better odds than 2 or 3 teams from the West because their record is worse than the West teams.

Here's last years standings, you can see there that the #9 seed in the East had a worse record than #9 and #10 in the West, scroll back and you'll see where they end with a worse record than 3 or 4 Western teams, giving them a much better lotto pick, typically 10 or 11.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018.html

I think I understand what you're saying, like the Suns have a harder time than the Hornets of getting 30 wins because they play teams in the West more often, right?

However in lottery seeding, the team that finished 9th in the East has a worse record than the 9th, 10th, and 11th teams in the West so they end up drafting at 11 instead of 14, like the team in the West that was closest to the playoffs.

I think both of us can be right, in a way, mine has more to do with how the lottery odds and seeding works vs the talent they play. Last year the Pistons finished 9th in the East, with a 39-43 record, and the 9th and 10th seeds in the West had better records so they drafted later than the Pistons. Strength of schedule doesn't matter for ping pong balls, those are handed out from worst to best non-playoff teams based on record and typically the 8th seed, sometimes even the 7th seed, in the East have losing records but still make the playoffs while the Suns have missed the playoffs when they've won 48 games. So the West teams that barely miss the postseason always end up with the worst lottery picks/odd and the teams that just miss the playoffs in the East usually get better odds than 2 or 3 teams from the West because their record is worse than the West teams.

Here's last years standings, you can see there that the #9 seed in the East had a worse record than #9 and #10 in the West, scroll back and you'll see where they end with a worse record than 3 or 4 Western teams, giving them a much better lotto pick, typically 10 or 11.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018.html

Okay, I see what you're saying. I do think though that the impact of playing a West loaded schedule has a greater impact on drafting position.

 

[Russ Smith]

Nassir Little (who should be playing at Arizona) is going too-3. I think he’s better than Barrett/Reddish.

Better shooter than Barrett but doesn't have the handle those 2 do. They're all really interesting. Barrett is terrific but he's a very spotty shooter. Reddish has the best all around offensive game but isn't as athletic as the other 2, although very athletic.

 

[GatorAZ]

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[1Sun]

Unless we have a shot at Zion, I think we need to consolidate our draft picks and acquire a veteran piece, either at point guard or at power forward. We already have too many youngsters we need to develop. Adding even more youth will only continue to push our timeline back, in my opinion.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

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Good lord