As an overview, let me make it clear I have not finalized my opinion on Bain. He may still be the best choice. I just want to make it clear that in my mind he’s not a slam dunk. He is unquestionably very talented.
The concerns about Bain are real. There is a major concern about arm length. Arm length is important because it helps rushers push off offensive defenders who try to envelop them. The preference is 34” arm length. Bain’s arms are slightly less than 31 inches. You will see notes that trumpet some short arm successes; they are often not true comparisons. Hendrickson, Freeney and Jared Allen have at least 32 inch arms. I know of virtually no successful DE with arms this short, save one. The concern is they can’t get there fast enough to reach QBs with a typical release time. I know, he could get to Bissett. While Bain is decent off the line he’s not really explosive, so even if held up briefly it could impact his success.
There may be a simple solution that the Cards are intimately familiar with. At times, Bain could be moved inside. Zach Allen has almost the exact same arm length as Bain. He’s played both inside and out. As a freshman in 2023 Bain played inside and was the ACC Rookie Defensive Player of the Year. He recorded 7.5 sacks and 12 TFL. Bain was also very effective against the run. Imagine him next to Nolen. Tampa did this with short armed Calijah Kancey. He looked decent inside, but he’s been somewhat injury prone. Of course Bain would likely add about 10 pounds. That might further impact his quickness.
There are other concerns. Bain suffered a severe calf injury; sound familiar? The Cards would need to sort out their conditioning routine.
This is weird, but he’s an erratic tackler. If improved he’d have higher TFL numbers. He simply arm tackles too much.
Remember Simeon Rice? I can remember a ball carrier passing Rice as Rice continued to chase a QB for a sack. Bain isn’t quite that bad but does have trouble maintaining gap integrity while chasing the QB. With the number of exceptional QB runners in the NFL, that could become an issue.
He also needs to learn to use his hands better to slap the ball away from QBs. He hasn’t caused the expected number of fumbles with all those QB hits.
Finally Bain needs to perform well at the Combine. Some advisor may urge him to skip it. I’m counting on his highly competitive nature to drive him to work out. I’m not certain he goes to all star games.
Is Bailey (suggested by Chopper) a safer pick; probably. His bust rate is probably 10%; Bain’s is probably 20%. That also started me thinking if the Cards traded down, what could they get? If the Cards stay put and pick at 3 they have to get a special player.
The concerns about Bain are real. There is a major concern about arm length. Arm length is important because it helps rushers push off offensive defenders who try to envelop them. The preference is 34” arm length. Bain’s arms are slightly less than 31 inches. You will see notes that trumpet some short arm successes; they are often not true comparisons. Hendrickson, Freeney and Jared Allen have at least 32 inch arms. I know of virtually no successful DE with arms this short, save one. The concern is they can’t get there fast enough to reach QBs with a typical release time. I know, he could get to Bissett. While Bain is decent off the line he’s not really explosive, so even if held up briefly it could impact his success.
There may be a simple solution that the Cards are intimately familiar with. At times, Bain could be moved inside. Zach Allen has almost the exact same arm length as Bain. He’s played both inside and out. As a freshman in 2023 Bain played inside and was the ACC Rookie Defensive Player of the Year. He recorded 7.5 sacks and 12 TFL. Bain was also very effective against the run. Imagine him next to Nolen. Tampa did this with short armed Calijah Kancey. He looked decent inside, but he’s been somewhat injury prone. Of course Bain would likely add about 10 pounds. That might further impact his quickness.
There are other concerns. Bain suffered a severe calf injury; sound familiar? The Cards would need to sort out their conditioning routine.
This is weird, but he’s an erratic tackler. If improved he’d have higher TFL numbers. He simply arm tackles too much.
Remember Simeon Rice? I can remember a ball carrier passing Rice as Rice continued to chase a QB for a sack. Bain isn’t quite that bad but does have trouble maintaining gap integrity while chasing the QB. With the number of exceptional QB runners in the NFL, that could become an issue.
He also needs to learn to use his hands better to slap the ball away from QBs. He hasn’t caused the expected number of fumbles with all those QB hits.
Finally Bain needs to perform well at the Combine. Some advisor may urge him to skip it. I’m counting on his highly competitive nature to drive him to work out. I’m not certain he goes to all star games.
Is Bailey (suggested by Chopper) a safer pick; probably. His bust rate is probably 10%; Bain’s is probably 20%. That also started me thinking if the Cards traded down, what could they get? If the Cards stay put and pick at 3 they have to get a special player.
